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Brexit

Westminstenders: Why the Irish Border isn't a Remain/EU Plot

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2019 10:10

I hope the events of this week give the ERG the kick up the backside over this that they need.

I doubt it will, but I live in hope. The alternative is too horrid to contemplate.

I'll leave this here instead as a reminder of what choice Brexit was always going to come down to.

Happy Easter everyone.

Westminstenders: Why the Irish Border isn't a Remain/EU Plot
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Iambuffy · 23/04/2019 18:27

Yep.
My first ever post on here was about how he and gove looked like they were about to puke

BigChocFrenzy · 23/04/2019 18:30

Yep, Boris wrote 2 Telegraph articles, one for Remain, one Leave
and then pondered which gave him the best shot at becoming PM.

No principles involved, just pure selfish careerism

His obvious horror the morning after Leave won, showed that his Plan A had been shattered
Neither he nor Gove expected this, hence their mutual blood-letting that accidentally let in May instead

Plan B is to ride the populist Brexit bandwagon into No 10.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/04/2019 18:32

Boris Johnson, 2013:

“If we left the EU… we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by ‘Bwussels’,
< scathing contempt then, for those who worship him now >

but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure…

Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans?

That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU.”

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 23/04/2019 19:01

My first ever post on here was about how he and gove looked like they were about to puke

Im fairly positive that my first post was agreeing with you

Iambuffy · 23/04/2019 19:10

😀

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 23/04/2019 19:52

I wasn’t on mumsnet back then but was clearly at home having the same thoughts. Happy to have found you all!

BigChocFrenzy · 23/04/2019 19:55

I was on here well before the ref

  • I was always worried about that & its consequences, because I thought it disgracefully irresponsible of Cameron to call a ref .... and then it was obvious the Remain campaign was shambolic

..... I still never predicted the political chaos and the hard right swing Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 23/04/2019 19:56

Did you, @red ?

RedToothBrush · 23/04/2019 21:07

Pretty much BCF.

I thought there was a political black hole. I posted that much on MN saying that political vacuums are never good things. Whenever one forms, you historically get all sorts of bad things happening as lots of people rush to grab control as no one is really in charge. I struggle to think of political black holes where its gone smoothly. You could potentially argue that the collapse of the Berlin Wall and Eastern Europe was one, but really there was very much momentum and a goal rather than a complete vacuum. Even then it also gave birth to the Yugoslav wars too.

I said my fears to my parents the day after the ref. I vividly remember the conversation with them as I was sat on the stairs when I did. I was (and still am) very worried about the direction this is going, and just how far it will go. It's black. If Farage (or Johnson for that matter tbh) was to come to power certain groups such as educators or journalists might really be exposed to this idea of bringing down 'the Liberal elite'. It won't just be immigrants and people who are the wrong colour. A real anti middle class sentiment which could get nasty.

There is a certain amount of push back, but it still is a possibility. Look at the language being used and who is in the cross hairs of that. We are definitely not at rock bottom yet, and I fear what rock bottom is going to look like. A lot will depend on how Brexit pans out. There is definitely a desire from the likes of the Etonian hard right / Fascist hard right to stop the middle classes 'getting above themselves' or 'deserve to be taught a lesson' which is shared by parts of the 'left behind' working class.

It's very much based on class, and the idea that the middle class have dominated and have got too powerful. Which I think has a certain degree of merit, as there is a section of middle class society which is completely blind to the problems in society and has become really rather arrogant and self serving. But that's certainly not the case across the board. And it ignores the role the upper class has had in it all (which in the US has been attributed to the average blue collar worker having little contact with the upper classes - eg Trump - and grievences being more with their immediate bosses etc who are white collar and tell the blue collars what to do, in a fashion which is rather condescending. I note here that the tone of many remain FBPE types hasn't exactly helped break this model and this is despite there being this awareness of the dynamic in the US since Trump)

I don't know.

I don't know how far down the rabbit warren we are headed. But that's the pattern that plays out when authoritarians take over because the biggest threat to them are the educated middle classes. The question is always how do you neutralise them / appease them. And if you have no money (which would be the case with no deal), your options are more limited. Especially since the middle classes who are Remain, are the least likely to go for the whole 'blame the scapegoat' shit. That just leaves create a climate of fear, in which examples much be made of those who speak out and disagree with the regime.

At best I think we can look forward to protests being a lot more common and getting more militant as we go forward. Extinction Rebellion protests of the last week or so, are probably the fore runner to much more. And there will be a crackdown that won't be pretty at some point.

As I say, it depends on what Theresa pulls out the bag (if she does) or when she goes (and who replaces her).

I've always noted, that it's not the first leader in a regime change to a more authoritarian system that you have to worry about. It the ones that follows them, who has more to prove and resorts to more draconian measures to keep that power and control.

Not the cheeriest of thoughts but it's not playing out particularly far of the mark atm. As usual, I hope I'm wrong, and I hope there's enough push back to block the really bad shit.

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RedToothBrush · 23/04/2019 21:14

BTW Change UK's MEP candidates really could not feed the narrative of the Brexit Party any better if the Brexit Party had picked them instead. The lack of self awareness going on there, and the lack of understanding of the fracture in society is a sight to behold.

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HazardGhost · 23/04/2019 21:21

red couldn't agree more about the lack of self awareness with change uk mep candidates. Really fucked up an opportunity there.

tobee · 23/04/2019 21:25

Interesting thoughts Red.

I found it very worrying how when Corbyn took off in the Labour leadership debates and when Trump took off in debates to be the republican candidate, the other contenders, often experienced and much more moderate, where left blindsided by the populist surge. They couldn't make any impact. And were pretty much standing there with goldfish mouths.

Ellie56 · 23/04/2019 21:34

I think I am going to scream...

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/mps-may-vote-on-key-brexit-legislation-next-week-theresa-may

So the Maybot is going to bring her WA back for the 4th time, disguised as The Withdrawal and Implementation Bill (WAB) Hmm

"Negotiations with Labour " are as we suspected , going nowhere fast as the Government are "just regurgitating what has already been emphatically rejected three times by Parliament."

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/apr/23/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-mps-return-to-commons-and-brexit-deadlock-continues-live-news

I am rapidly losing the will to live. Where do we go from here?

jasjas1973 · 23/04/2019 21:36

It wouldn't matter what Change did, Farage is a master at painting himself as the working class hero and the opposition as the elite, he captures the disenchanted vote amazingly well.... weird considering his background.... though look at how many fall for dodgy pension/timeshare/investment schemes?

I liked the Change EP launch.

I do not share RTB dire predictions, laws still have to go through Parliament and our judiciary is still independent, hence Millar stopped May.
Despite Brexit, May lost her Parliamentary majority, so rumours of the collapse of the UK into despotic leadership is, atm, over exaggerated.

RedToothBrush · 23/04/2019 21:38

Cos they don't get it. They are almost too involved in the moment and unable to step out of their own bubble.

That's the trouble. Some of the narrative of the Brexit / Trump campaign is based on something that can be observed and is real. That's what makes it so powerful and draws people in.

A good lie in propaganda terms involves a grain of something that hooks people in. If it has some foundation in truth or perceived truth it is all the better - and more powerful - for it.

That's why feelings not facts hold more power too. Because people who want to believe something don't see the value in checking that their belief has foundation.

It's always built off the back of grievance. Always. And failure to understand the grievance properly is where the issue is.

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RedToothBrush · 23/04/2019 21:40

and our judiciary is still independent

A hard right majority could change that pretty darn quick.

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Iambuffy · 23/04/2019 21:40

I’m thoroughly pissed off with the whole shit shower of them in the HofC.
And now trump arriving in June.

It feels like the end of fucking days.

Littlespaces · 23/04/2019 21:48

Despite Brexit, May lost her Parliamentary majority, so rumours of the collapse of the UK into despotic leadership is, atm, over exaggerated.

I want you to be correct about this jasjas.

More tax redistribution would be a good thing (as long as some people don't escape it) but I don't think anyone would benefit from a purge on the middle class. It would just make people move abroad, retire or coast in easier jobs. 1970's revisited in a bad way.

jasjas1973 · 23/04/2019 21:53

Maybe they could BUT a majority Tory Govt wouldn't be full of the hard right.... there would still be enough centralist Cons to block significant changes to how judges are appointed.

failure to understand the grievance properly is where the issue is

The overwhelming Leave reason is immigration, it is what drives ukip, the brexit party and TM.... i wont try to understand that, they can fuck off.
BXP support is anywhere between 8 and 14%, with a falling Ukip share.

RedToothBrush · 23/04/2019 22:12

BUT a majority Tory Govt wouldn't be full of the hard right.... there would still be enough centralist Cons to block significant changes to how judges are appointed.

You confident about that? Remembering the sheer deluge of Tory Rebels there have been on votes which have been distantly along party lines and how the Tory Rebels that have rebelled have been facing deselection. And how the threats of the moderate Tories have been ignored in favour of the tantruming of the hard right of the party.

You are not paying attention if you think the moderate Tories won't vote for it, if its the party line.

The overwhelming Leave reason is immigration
I don't believe its the only reason. Immigration is the reason given for the effect of gentrification by the way of explanation. And since Labour are going along with the immigration explanation rather than providing an alternative explanation (possibly because Labour currently attracts more of the middle class and educated vote who are the beneficaries of such gentrification).

The places which are the poorest in the country are not buying into Corbynism. They might stay solidly Labour in a lot of cases, but thats despite Corbyn, not because of him. He isn't telling a message about poverty that is hitting the mark. There are reasons for this. Being a politician so closely linked to students is one of them.

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1tisILeClerc · 23/04/2019 22:18

{A good lie in propaganda terms involves a grain of something that hooks people in. If it has some foundation in truth or perceived truth it is all the better}

Many of the 'headline' pieces have been like this, stuff that starts out true but past the first few minutes (where people start losing interest) the downsides appear, such as the ideas about reducing trade tariffs to zero, sounds brilliant until you realise that UK industry would be trashed.
Farage and so many others, yes we will leave, but what is the plan after that? How can anyone make great new prosperity of the UK happen? I am not saying things would be totally catastrophic, but the UK will never regain what it has even 3 years ago although it will eventually hit a new normal, say 10% 'worse' than how it was.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/04/2019 22:19

Centrist Tories are mostly too timid / loyal /careerist to fight against the hard right in their party ....
and they are being driven out of the party

Local parties are choosing hard right candidates to replace the elder, traditional conservtives as they retre
There were 160 Tories already who wanted No Deal, as well as many others who wanted a less hard Brexit.

It has been shocking to see how the Tory party has been captured by the far right at grass roots level
and how the Parliamentary party has moved to the right

This is how the GOP was taken over, via a culture war, despite the absence of religion / abortion as an issue here

BigChocFrenzy · 23/04/2019 22:25

Fear of immigration is a useful tool for the Tory hard right in gaining votes, but it is not what motivates the leaders:

Their aims are to roll back the welfare state & NHS
cut taxes for the rich,
remove the remaining constraints on employers that protect workers rights
remove environmental protection

Basically to increase the transfer of the nation's wealth away from ordinary people and to the already super-wealthy

jasjas1973 · 23/04/2019 22:25

I think that direct political appointees of judges would be a step too far and of course would take a long time before it would affect the the Supreme court....Judges live a long time, we'd also have to leave the ECHR too.

Look, i'm not saying its impossible but it would require several Parliaments, all hard right, even Thatcher only managed 3 and of course, many MPs are Barristers or Lawyers and would not be happy, they are a conservative lot!!!!

I do agree on Corbyn, for far too many people he is seen as pro terrorism anti UK, that's grossly unfair but that is how he is seen.