Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

I don't think May can avoid contesting the EU elections at this stage

• the organisation is well under way and the political damage to the Tory party has happened already (although a big loss will worsen it)

There seems no chance of the WA passing before 23 May, so if the UK somehow did cancel the elections, then it would mean No Deal

I posted upthread that imo the EP elections are important both in determining whether Leave or Remain emerges stronger in the UK

and also in the E27 readiness to grant yet another extension

• a Farage win would make this unlikely

iirc Tusk and Juncker will both retire after 31 October
afaik, they would both be around for the October EUCO, which would decide any future extension

Tusk is our best friend and Juncker's likely successor, Manfred Weber, is likely to be much tougher on the UK

So October would probably be our last chance at another extension .... but even that looks dubious if we have made no progress
especially since they would expect that May would be replaced in December - if she survives that long - by an ERG PM

I just feel so sad about that poor lass, Lyra McKee. So senseless.
She was a journalist and a good and brave one by all accounts.
It's very worrying too

But if Labour gets off the fence and comes out for at least another Referendum, and then gets a good majority of EU seats, then Weber might not get the post which would go to Tinnemans, and it might be more favourable to the UK.

Yes, that's all a lot of ifs and buts, reminscent of why Leavers voted the way they did because there might be an EU army, the EU might collapse and pigs might fly.

I think we need to show some progress by the October EUCO, or sometime,
because otherwise I'm not sure if the E27 will vote unanimously - in perpetuity - to extend

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-immigration-settled-status-france-eu-citizens-a8874646.html
Thanks to Brexit, I've got 30 days to leave my home in France
When we applied for the right to remain in France after Britain leaves the EU, we received a letter telling us to leave in 30 days – even though we meet the legal requirements

If you're interested in Watergate, you need to watch All the President's Men. It's such a good film.

I don’t know if this has been said as I haven’t been on here for quite a while but surely any referendum/vote has to have a ‘sell by date’?
The referendum was nearly 3 years ago.
It is well known that January was the ‘tipping point’ in favour or Remaining even if absolutely nobody has changed their mind because of natural demographics.
The fact is that a not inconsiderable number of older people who tended to vote massively to leave have passed away whilst a huge number of young people, like my son who were too young to vote, have now become of voting age and the vast majority would vote to Remain.
It’s as though more weight is being to the votes of dead people than young people who are the ones who will get fucked up the most by this

RTB
A case, or THE case referred to in the Independent as been reviewed and was reported in The Connexion (a Europe based news outlet for principally UK readers) that there had been an administrative error and that they could now stay. Obviously great relief to the family concerned but still highlighting the tension that is being felt by many which is deliberately being caused by the UK refusing to sign the WA, something we on here all see as just the first step and one which has to happen before anything else.
FWIW, UK holders of 'EU' driving licences (plastic cards with the EU symbol) have been declared acceptable and not requiring to be changed for France, subject to the previous conditions such as expiry.

Remainers are making a pig's ear of the European elections

because they are ignoring the UK version of PR - which hammers small parties that are not regionally concentrated

Roughly, voting for any party with

there had been an administrative error and that they could now stay

I read that Independent article too and am so relieved they can now stay. The he article said there were 3367 other orders to leave France issued to EU citizens because of failure to meet the legal residence conditions.

The article said it wasn't clear how many of were British citizens / but the numbers will rise as more people from the UK have to apply for their Carte de Sejours because of Brexit.

I thought the main family in the article were so brave. Imagine being given 30 days to leave your home, kids schools, friends, work, life, relocating your animals etc. Even if you managed to fight the decision you'd psychologically feel so conflicted between loving your home, friends, neighbours etc and just feeling unwanted. The same way EU citizens have been made to feel here. Those who support Farage and those who still regurgitate
" it's all worth it / get on with it"
have a very great deal to answer for, especially now we know more,

Hello Plum, I think people were asking after you, nice to see you.

Peregrina’s pigs might fly comment above reminds me of my Y8s who when asked to estimate the probability of their going to the Moon that very day, replied about 10%. Their reasoning was - if they got out of school on the bell, got home quickly, had their tea straight away, their Mum let them get a train to Heathrow, they got on the Concorde (it was that long ago), arrived in the USA and met an astronaut, they had a pretty good chance.
(I now think the met an astronaut equivalent is Congress allowing us to trash the GFA - no chance at all, but Brexiters won’t see it.)

Ian Dunt on CHUK:

"It feels like a rerun of the indicative votes process all over again:
people with leadership positions on the Remain side failing to cooperate.

Change UK don't seem to be talking to anyone.
They're very "contact shy", Lib Dems say.
This is odd. They are, after all, literally based on the idea of cross-party cooperation.
But in reality they feel association with the Lib Dems is the kiss of death and anyway - they want to take their place, not work alongside them.
The narcissism of petty differences.
...
Change UK is a truly terrible name.
It sounds like a charity putting out a daytime TV advert.
And worse, it is now one of three names.

They started as The Independent Group.
Now that has been shortened to TIG in some of their literature.
And they added the Change UK name.

It's hard enough for a political journalist to keep track of.**
Any normal voter will be baffled and probably just associate them with any of the other smaller parties on the ballot paper.
They're piddling away any chance at brand recognition.

{They're piddling away any chance at brand recognition.}
Had they stuck to TIG, possibly slightly taking it tongue in cheek to TIGgers it had a novelty and a (small) association with bouncy tigers which in the grand scheme of needing 'brands' that stand out would have been no bad thing. Being boring old farts in a corner will not get them anywhere, it is time for the UK to get a bit radical in a positive and 'fun' way.

....surely any referendum/vote has to have a ‘sell by date’?
The referendum was nearly 3 years ago.

Exactly so. When she called the GE May had already made it clear that her plan was a Hard Brexit. She didn't get the mandate from the public for that and I would say that with great reluctance on her part, the WA is a backtracking from this. However, this isn't satisfying her Leaver MPs, nor the trolls on here.

Since councils change every 4 years (even if they do it by 1/3 over three years), and GEs and EU elections every 5 then about 5 years would suggest to be the time to seek a fresh mandate.

However, the really big changes in direction seem to require a generation of 30 years or so: the post war consensus seemed to be breaking down by the seventies, with Wilson only getting a small majority, which was lost under Callaghan, and then a big change with Thatcher getting in in 1979. but later replaced by Blair with an absolutely whopping majority. Now again we appear to be in one of the change-over periods - Cameron didn't get a majority in 2010, May didn't get a majority in 2017 - something is in the wind, but we still seem to be groping around for the new vision.

I was the one worrying about PCPlums not being around for ages! . Welcome back

James Chapman
@jameschappers
The public inquiry into the Brexit fiasco is going to be jaw dropping. I know of st least 4 civil servants keeping meticulous private notes recording ministerial overrules in preparation. Of course, if they ask me, I’ll give evidence too 🍿

If Remainers split among minor parties, so the Brexit parties win most seats, then that - in practical politics - renews the Brexit mandate.

Most of the public won't care about % vote, just seats

Oh, and yes to everything you said Plums. It’s maddening that this is all so obvious and yet on they plough regardless. No mandate but sticking to that ridiculous 80% of voters mantra.

Remain is the core belief of CHUK, but their further splitting of the Remain vote - and total refusal to cooperate with other groups - may yet ensure the worst possible Brexit

1tis, with the last sentences of both our posts we seem to be hinting at the same thing - the generational shift is beginning, but at the moment we are still searching for the way forward. Cometh the hour, cometh the man, as the saying goes, so perhaps the hour hasn't quite come yet.

Most of the public won't care about % vote, just seats

Even after the last EU election, most people hadn't got a clue that UKIP had hoovered up the seats, and didn't realise that the only elective office Farage was holding was as an MEP. Remainers have got to get the message out that they have to get their vote out and vote tactically in the EU elections. It will all help to send the message that the Brexit mandate is spent.

Remainers need to recognise that the majority of the public neither know nor care about the referendum dirty tricks

For them, it was same old politics, so they don't regard the result as any dodgier than GEs
Many - incuding floating voters - think it's just mc Remainers refusing to accept they lost

Remainers need to get out of this bubble and concentrate on winning more support.
Winning elections

The first step is to win a majority of EP seats AND to avoid Farage's party winning more seats than any other party
Otherwise, it'll be taken by most of the public as another Leave vote

Vote clever.

I’ve already emailed TIG (a much better name) with my concerns. Sadly they seem to be playing the same old politics under the guise of something different. Old habits die hard, and as they have been validated for so long by the political system whereby they were elected, they can’t wholly let it go...they have ditched their original parties, which is a very big deal by their standards, but not the full mindset. They too are putting (their new) party above country, and above Remain.
I might be voting Lib Dem after all. Change can come later.

It'll have to be labour for me otherwise it's a wasted vote

Any enquiry is going to finish long after Brexit has been resolved on way or the other
..... and an ERG PM will not allow an enquiry, anyway

When Remainers obsess about the unfairness of the last vote, they turn off most voters who aren't in the bubble
That's not how to win votes