Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

I'm beginning to think (and this will terrify some) that there's a growing disconnect between marketing polling, and political polling. Which might explain some of the volatility. If this is the case, it's probably a pretty clear sign that it's because a vote is worth less than fuck all.

I'm beginning to think (and this will terrify some) that there's a growing disconnect between marketing polling, and political polling. Which might explain some of the volatility.

I think there's truth in this.

I think populas is the one that did polling before the ref which seems to have been very different between what was public and what was private. I think they are the one who are mates with DelBoy and Co.

We were at a large event very recently at a tourist attraction and met a party of Dutch tourists.
The conversation very quickly turned to Brexit:
“What an impressive monument! What do you think about Brexit?”

DH told them exactly what he thinks about Brexit!

They said they’ve been asking lots of people in the days they’ve been here and not one has said they are in favour of leaving the EU. They can’t understand it at all.

They said they’ve been asking lots of people in the days they’ve been here and not one has said they are in favour of leaving the EU. They can’t understand it at all

Well who voted Tory in 1992 ?

And who voted for Nixon in 72 ?

David Gauke @ Davidgauke
Woolly liberals.

Retweets

Norman Lamb @ normanlamb
Love this! What a joint ticket!

And I'm just so angry with the brexiteers for stoking that up. And I'm afraid that does include your average leaver in the street who hasn't changed their mind and still clings to brexit.

I think a lot of us here would be shocked at the lack of connection the average leaver in the street makes between what’s happening in NI and Brexit. I overheard a ‘I see the bloody Irish are kicking off again’ conversation. It was pretty horrible. Reminded me of the sort of conversations about Ireland I used to hear as a child.

Never mind the 90% of Irish people who want to remain in the EU
Farage has decided they need to Irexit:

Nigel Farage: "Ultimately, Ireland will leave the EU too" | Claire Byrne Live

m.youtube.com/watch?v=UlKX70oRLws

Theresa May could put off Queen's speech amid Brexit turmoil

Obviously trying to avoid the QS, because this means a vote - and the DUP bung has run out

So HoC will continue to sit and twiddle their thumbs, because they've run out of Parliamentary business !

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-could-put-off-queens-speech-amid-brexit-turmoil

Theresa May could put off the Queen’s speech until later this year, with government sources saying there were no immediate plans to bring one forward while parliament had not yet approved a Brexit deal.

May had been widely expected to schedule a Queen’s speech setting out the government’s legislative agenda within weeks, because she announced a two-year parliamentary session in mid-June 2017.

However, some within the government believe May is prepared to ignore demands for a programme of new laws,
even though parliament has run out of business to discuss apart from Brexitt* legislation, which is currently stalled.
.....
A Downing Street source said it would not be fair to say the Queen’s speech was being delayed, because no official date had been set for one 😂

Talk about making the rules up as you go along - when we have the biggest change since WW2 facing us. What a shambles.

If there were to be a power grab, the monarch has to go. Getting rid of the Queens speech would be the first step. No need for a Queen then.

#Justsayin'

^Well who voted Tory in 1992 ?
And who voted for Nixon in 72 ?^

And who is still wanting to leave, or even to “just get on with it”? With all the online support, these tourists were expecting at least one.

The Watergate scandal was a shock to the teenage me,
it opened my eyes to deliberate and planned manipulation of the political system in the US
I naively thought then that it wouldn't happen in the UK

This is hilarious

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/19/tory-councillors-refuse-to-campaign-for-next-months-eu-elections

If Labour could only find a position on Brexit that its members agree with, it could clean up.

Ivan Rogers: 'EU could decide no-deal is the right solution' - BBC Newsnight

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm3O-9rR1UY

I'm increasingly wondering, BCF, if the EU has agreed to a delay in order to better prepare for No Deal. The UK meanwhile....

why Unlike the UK, the EU's No Deal prepping is continuing.

However, I think their motivation for agreeing an extension was that they didn't want to push the UK out of the EU,
with all the political fallout that might cause,
especially since it looks like Brexit would be a chaotic unplanned No Deal

However, by end October, the govt / HoC needs to decide on either Revoke or the WA with a new PD,
because it is doubtful if the E27 would unanimously agree to Extenstion #3 without a feasible plan.

Also, after 3 extensions, the EU would have shown they've gone the extra mile to be helpful
Hence they would face little internal criticism after October for any No Deal shitshow

Ivan Rogers speaks sense in that interview, shame about so many others.
He acknowledges that the WA must be signed so why can't the HoC understand this?

I too believe the EU will be better prepared for what I see now as an almost inevitable no deal, something I previously didn’t think would happen. Nothing will change here. Our politicians will continue to ignore what they are being told and carry on regardless. I despair.

I join you in your repair

Also, after 3 extensions, the EU would have shown they've gone the extra mile to be helpful
Hence they would face little internal criticism after October for any No Deal shitshow

Not only that, but there is due to be a change of personnel, so we could have someone who is less sympathetic to the UK.

despair
Ffs

I could add that if Farage gets a good showing in the EU elections, that might the thing which gives them the final incentive to give us the push. If Remain MEPs do better then this might cause a rethink.

Buffy prefer repair...if only...

I am waiting to see what happens on Tuesday. Labour has got to be taking notice of the slow motion Tory car crash, but as it's Bank Holiday, they have gone quiet.

In the meantime, May will be looking for a way to prevent us contesting the EU elections.

btw, I've been counting 31 October as Extension #3, because we have the June 2019 "checkpoint"

The June EUCO will agree that the extension will continue, providing things don't deteriorate:

If May has been toppled after disastrous local & EP elections and replaced by an ERG PM,
then the UK could start trying to be a wrecker within the EU institutions, which of course would break the terms of the extension.

I'm unsure if that condition is legally binding, though