Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

that's good news sos and so sorry about your dog stripey. It is the kindest thing we can do for our beloved pets, I only wish we could do the same for people (different thread).

DW just started a YouGov survey about citizenship

Provision for the less able has gotten worse since I met DW in 1994. And when the "3rd space" toilets and changing rooms really take off, it'll get significant worse again. After all, where else is all that space going to come from ?

After all, we know from Eugenics, that if we stop the disabled breeding, we'll eventually have a 100% healthy population because that's how numbers work.

I'm getting more and more depressed tbh.

Has anyone has any leaflets through their door?

Nada here

Another thing about that infuriating enquiry petition response.

Apart from the dictatorship- like, uncompromising, authoritarian, non-compassionate tone... it also shows a remarkable and incompetent lack of understanding. After three years half the country are still not on board. That patronising dismissive tone does not offer an olive branch - it is a psychologically incompetent approach. Which Minister signs off on the responses?

@Oubliette yes I thought the same re the discouraging Labour voting. It's why I wrote to my MP the other day (Labour) to advise them this is going to loose them votes.

It would be interesting to see if Labour have ever said the same or if it is actually always Tory spin that 80% voted for a Brexit party...

@lonely it sounds very similar to the Brexit Dept letters to me.
It seems to have spread, that's for sure.

stripey - Sorry to hear about your ddog and your dd's reaction . to you both. I got lots of kindness from the lovely wee community on here when our old cat was dying. Brexit might be awful and we might be outraged but we are still human beings who care.

frumpety - I'd add some more caster sugar and keep agitating the gin over a few days until it is dissolved. Are the plums still in it?

LonelyTiredAndLow - apparently all cathedrals in France have been 3D imaged so that people can "explore" them in virtual reality. That will really help the reconstruction effort . But there is no way of replacing 800 year old stained glass windows Yes, they'll make new ones but it's not the same

That response about the petition is It totally and deliberately misses the point about why a public enquiry us being sought : that it's not always possible (and definitely not in this case) in a 6 week window to establish unlawful activities and/or foreign influence - and that if we want to stop such untoward activities in future we need to learn - hence the need for an enquiry

But I suppose you could take a different view of the response in that it demonstrates that they are rattled and are scared of an enquiry and don't want an inquiry as it would cast doubt - even though too late - on the legitimacy of what has already been "decided".

That "80%" message will discourage Remainers for as long as Labour's official policy is to Brexit

So Labour know what they have to do
.... or they can just keep competing with the Tories, UKIP & the Brexit Party for the 2016 52%

Bear in mind we live in a country where the Home Office get a green light to continue breaking the law because it's "too difficult" not to (must use that one when I'm next in court), and where people who have been found guilty of nothing are labelled as "undetected offenders".

Not really sure why people continue pretending to be surprised ?

That "80%" message will discourage Remainers for as long as Labour's official policy is to Brexit

Exactly, i didnt realise the 2017 election was a rerun of the referendum and voted for the party whose policies i hated the least....which purely by coincidence was lib dem

I will certainly be treating the EU election as a rerun, and probably every GE after that until people stop bloody doing it

Irate about the petition response.

Snooty, arrogant, thick, dishonest, disingenuous.

You can see why the PM and cabinet office have made mistake after mistake with that attitude, that poor judgement.

Is it really possible that we’re governed by people of such low intelligence?

What it sounds like is the kind of snotty response you get from a really badly run hotel. Who fucked up and refused to apologise.

I got my MIL to register to vote! She's Commonwealth and here on an ILR, she didn't think she was allowed but she definitely is. She's an educated and generally well informed person, if she didn't know, it's likely many people in her situation don't.

It’s similar in tone to the response I got to feedback provided about a terribly dull course at work:

Unfortunately, the overall feedback was not as good as it should have been. The design has worked really well before with very positive feedback about the program. As we know the design has worked really well on many occasions we will not be reviewing the program.

In other words: how dare you not provide wonderful feedback. We’re just going to ignore you.

Listening to some of the commentary: there is a low bar to achieve in the EP elections as they're saying that there will be a "minuscule" turnout. As turnout is usually only in the order of 30% , we need to work hard to get the Remain vote out

I see that Macron has suspended EP election campaigning temporarily. Maybe the world's attention on this world heritage site which has a visual impact across the world (quite apart from its religious significance) might help make some of the British electorate more aware of the Europe on our doorstep. Clutching at straws

On a separate note Bercow has allegedly abandoned resignation plans? Allegedly persuaded to stay on by pro EU Tory MPs according to The Mail on Sunday? May be unfounded.

What I am not understanding is that the many PRO EU MPs who obviously understand the need to remain are being so quiet. Brexiting is a crock of shit and almost everyone in the world apart from Theresa, some in the HoC and a few others, who actually consider what leaving will really mean to the UK economy already privately acknowledge, although as we have established here are appearing keen for destructive purposes.
There is no way the 'person in the street' Brexiteer will actually get anything they really want from Brexiting as there are no promises for redevelopment, social equality and whatever that stand up to any scrutiny.

Looks like everyone needs a break from this shitshow. Hope the LBD team are back when we need them.

Yes TheMShip, I hope Led by Donkeys are back before the EU elections. They’ll be needed in the campaign.

Also, kind of guessing / hoping Labour will put out a clearer pro-EU message after the locals. There’s a clear 3 weeks after 2nd May when the campaigning needs to get serious.

Just got back from MiL's funeral in Germany. Awfully sad, but cathartic to say goodbye to my Ersatzmutter. I'm all cried out now and just have to cherish her memory. Not many people there, but when you're 94 you've either outlived most of your contemporaries or the few remaining are too frail to travel.

Went via Dunkirk and it was almost eerily quiet. Usually we see lots of Brits on the road from about Antwerp onwards, but there were hardly any. We wondered if people are avoiding foreign travel at the moment, as the ferries are usually packed during school holidays. M20 has sprouted a forest of cones - concrete barriers and a 50 MPH limit for miles and miles, but not much sign of anything actually being done.

Before we went, we called our car insurers 7 times in an attempt to get a Green Card sent by email (as we needed it quickly). Never heard from the first 6 tries, then finally got one. When we got back, there were 4 separate GCs sent by post, quite useless as they're time-limited. What a waste of time and money. I suspect they can't be arsed, as they can't charge for them.

Most people we talked to are still bemused, but getting fed up with the whole Brexit thing and our pathetic inability to deal with problems of our own making. When I paid for a meal by card, the waiter asked if we were British and said "You poor sods, I do feel sorry for you". So we're now reduced to being patronised by waiters!

Election canvassing was in full swing, with posters everywhere. My favourite was the SPD's "Füreinander, nicht jeder für sich" - For each other, not everyone for him/herself. How far away have we drifted from this idea of a society where we care for each other and all are looked after? What happened to Cameron's We're all in this together (which was a rich man's lie anyway, but still)?

Feel quite (in fact utterly) depressed being back in the UK, where we have another 6 months of the same old shite ahead of us, nothing resolved in a divided country with so many important issues being ignored for the sake of one all-consuming obsession.

I also got that arrogant and dismissive reply to the petition - sums up everything that's wrong with this government's attitude to those it's supposed to be serving. Just go away, be quiet and don't ask questions about things which shouldn't concern you. Dictatorship by degrees.

I too hope Led by Donkeys are back soon.
I miss Spitting Image watched so avidly by my teenage pals and I. It sparked conversations and questions between us and us and our (largely) Daily Mail reading parents that would not have been possible otherwise.
I am obvs feeling down atm re dog, and hideousness from work re Grievance (they've 'outsourced the process to an independent assessor' who called me last week and asked if I had 'any 'hard evidence'- eg photos?' I had attended my interview with mobility aids?)

But I'm SO AFRAID that everyone will take their eyes 'off the ball' and the Govt will do something else poss illegal but defo reprehensible.

Repeated condolences to you both Hasenstein but a great post.

How far away have we drifted from this idea of a society where we care for each other and all are looked after?

Very insightful Dictatorship by degrees too.

The Tories do not want to do the EU elections as they’ll come out of it badly, so I hope Labour won’t cave to pressure and agree to a WA soon so the EUs can be cancelled. Surely Corbyn realises that? And, that Labour could do well in them.

Forgive my ignorance, but Labour’s Customs Union idea doesn’t solve the Irish border problem, does it?

Sorry about your news, Stripey. It's exactly one year today we had to send our beloved kitty through the Celestial Cat Flap and it still hurts.

The only leaflets through our door have been for the Green Party in the local elections (who get my vote!)

I would love the thick of it writers to do brexit

They were excellent at making all the political parties look equally useless...very fair