Westministenders: Happy Birthday Chris Grayling!

[RedToothBrush]

Yep he's an April Fool. No really he is!

Today (1st April - I'm starting the thread slightly early) is the return of Indicative Votes.

This follows the defeat of May's Deal by 286 to 344 on Friday.

The Sunday Press has been full of talk of a Cabinet Collapse with 10 Cabinet Brexiteers threatening to walk, with the support of 170 Tory MPs, if May goes for a softer Brexit or fails to leave the EU by 22nd May regardless of whether this is with a Deal or with No Deal and Remain Cabinet Members threatening to walk if May goes for No Deal.

This is in addition to May's apparent threat that the House was at its limits for the process which has been taken as meaning she is considering a GE. Which both Tory Brexiteers and Tory Remainers say they will block. The threat of a GE has largely been seen as a threat to force MPs to back her deal.

May now faces the choice she has always resisted, which on the face of it, looks like it could cause a split in the Tory Party. She will obviously do everything she can to avoid making that choice. Her solution seems to be MV4 with the Snell / Nandy Amendment, which gives parliament a say in the next phase of Brexit. This theorectically is about the Political Declaration (PD) which the Indicative Votes essentially is about.

However it needs to be stressed repeatedly that the EU have said, that they do not care about the PD and all soft Brexits (variations on May's current PD) also require the WA to pass, such is the EU's distrust in the UK. This would include the Common Market 2.0 suggestion (Boles Amendment 189-283), despite what various MPs have suggested simply because it could be used as a temporary transition by the backdoor and CM2.0 doesn't cover certain aspects of withdrawal such as the divorce settlement, long term citizens rights and fishing rights amongst others. And this is going to be a big issue when it comes to the DUP who are now leaning to a soft Brexit or even revocation.

In light of this apparent Government Nervous Breakdown John Major has raised the prospect of a temporary government of National Unity, which is difficult to envisage how that would work given the current parliamentary polarisation. Indeed Labour have ruled this possibility out.

There has also been comments made that any policy passed by Parliament stemming from Indicative Votes could be ignored by May by her using her status of PM to ask the Queen to refuse to give it Royal Ascent. Which surely would go down a storm with her Majesty to be asked to be embroiled into this political pantomine.

Voting on the Indicative Votes is due to start at 8pm - 8.30pm tomorrow with a debate before it.

The Options on the table (but yet to be selected by the Speaker) are:
A) Baron, unilateral backstop exit.

B) Baron, if no WA by then, no-deal Brexit on 12/4. 160-400

C) Clarke, permanent UK-wide customs union. 265-271

D) Boles, Common Market 2.0 (EEA+CU).
Broadly similar to motion from last week, with some changes. 189-283

^E) Kyle / Beckett, WA + PD approval subject to confirmatory PV. 268-295

F) Jones/Grieve, PV if necessary to prevent no deal. Not previously tabled.

G) Cherry, A50 revocation as default if necessary to prevent no deal.
More detailed version of last weeks motion. 184-293

H) Eustice, EFTA+EEA.
Slightly modified version from last week. 64-377

Clark and Boles amendments are the ones to watch. They have apparently gathered more support since last week. Boles CM2.0 appears to have Labour swinging support behind it, unofficially atm.

May is also under pressure to allow the Cabinet Free Votes this time on the CU vote (they abstained last week). Whether this will happen is still anyone's guess.

There is also talk of an alternative 'Custom's Partnership' idea - a fudge that would see the UK stay in parts of a customs union. This idea has been previously rejected by the EU and the Cabinet. But we know how much May loves her fudges.

Robert Peston is saying tonight that whether May and the Government fall may rest on how much support the Customs Union and her allies are desparate for it to get a parliamentary majority - particularly with support from more Conservatives (it only got 35 Tory Votes last time). This would mark a breakthrough and the first positive majority for Brexit.

If it passes, the suggestion is that MV4 will be Tuesday. Of course it remains to be seen if ERG hardliners who switched last week would continue to support her deal if she goes for a CU option and whether getting a parliamentary majority for a CU plus the Snell Amendment would be sufficient to persuade enough Labour MPs, the DUP and perhaps Tory Remainers to push it over the line.

However May going for the CU could provoke a Cabinet resignations or even splits in the party meaning that MV4 on Tuesday is somehow impossible or at least delayed.

Expect May to keep her cards to her chest about whether she will go for a CU as long as possible as a result. (Possibly NOT before a MV4).

Meanwhile it looks like there might be a storm brewing about the stripping of NI born Irish citizens of their EU citizenship, which seems to be in breech of the GFA.

And the Tory Leadership contest is in full swing. Hunt and Javid have been labelled as The TiTs (Theresa in Trousers), Johnson is styling himself as a One Nation Tory (although he is not a member of the One Nation Group within the party) who will bring sweeping tax cuts, and Grayling is saying the next leader must be a Cabinet Minister with experience and has always been a Brexiteer.

And Finally, David Allen Green raises a concern about a potential new exit day, if it changes from 12 April.

David Allen Green @ Davidallengreen
If a new exit day is not agreed until 10/11 April (ie European Council), there will be not enough time for exit day in domestic legislation to be amended in time before 12 April. It was close this time, with the shift from 29 March.

I've not been able to find it myself but dh showed me a meme of Bercow with "The Fuck-Noes have it, the Fuck-Noes have it."

maybe not something for the wee ones to learn

That's OK I think I've got it again - crazy morning here.
So if we do Clarkes' CU we still don't have regulation and that's where NI becomes another issue - do they follow EU regs for eg?

Back to the matter in hand. My heart is split over Clarke. I do desperately want Revoke. But he is a pragmatist and has been around the block.

Also free movement of people/services industry become an issue with just a CU, right? WIll wake up properly in a bit

Ds2 (10) does a lot of Bercow impressions. Ds3 (4) just looks appalled whenever I have parliament tv on and says "not the shouting again mummy". I don't know if he means their shouting or mine.

I think that a Customs Union does not retain EU rights or protections. It is free movement for goods but not for people.

Ah, have found a handy link for anyone else who feels their brain keeps losing info the moment it's going in (although I think this article is from last week before any amendments to it).

The thing that stands out to me is that we wouldn't have a vote or veto on anything. This seems crazy.

Much better to stay in the EU.

.

PMK

@Littlespaces yes, perhaps instead of "The people voted for pain" TM should have said "The people have voted for less power".
Amounts to the same thing but would have probably riled the leavers more ("we've been poor before"; negative messages from remain don't work).

PMK

I suspect Clark's approach would actually be CU (for which you need a formal arrangement) but also matched with a Single Market Alignment (rather than membership) which could be less formal.

The CU is purely about trade of goods and tariffs.

However the issue with this is the CU would still need the WA and political settlement that goes with it. And that includes the backstop - because there would need to be a more formal thing regarding the Single Market for the purposes of the GFA and the Irish border issues.

I was thinking last night that the WA also includes a commitment to the ECHR and how important this clause is to an EU trade deal. The deal with Turkey includes their membership of the ECHR (although they have been very blantantly flouting it in recent years). Given the failings that have happened with Turkey, the EU would be keen to avoid the same issue with the UK, thus giving another very solid reason and justification for them to still require the WA.

And the Home Office decision to try to strip NI born Irish Citizens of their EU citizenship, sure as hell isn't going to help the British cause on this matter.

So this is the major problem I see with Clark's attempt at getting Brexit over the line. It is still reliant on the WA and arguaby going for the CU would make it harder for May to get the WA passed.

That said Julian Smith (the Chief Whip's) intervention to say that May wasn't clear enough about how after the 2017 election that meant that Brexit would have to be softer. Its not a direct backing of the CU option but it is seemingly guiding Tories towards a compromise option in an effort to support May and keep the party together.

Yes Lonely.

I recently had a conversation with a Leave voter and when I pointed out the economic costs, she said she would happily eat bread and water for the rest of her life!

My 6 year old asks for a Brexit update every day on the way home from school. Trying to find the positives, maybe our children will be leading the way in the future with their keen interest in politics.

PMK

Politicians are jumping up and down about the backstop in the WA. Surely the backstop only comes into effect if we can't find a solution to the NI border problem. So are politicians effectively saying there is no solution to the border issue - that the "alternative solutions" have no basis?

Another one who watched countryfile last night. Both me and dh got so animated shouting at the tv my 5 year old came over to tell us that we needed some time out .....
I'm finding the whole thing so depressing. My mp is firmly Tory hard brexiter so my emails there fall on deaf ears. I work in an industry that has suffered cut after cut, have not seen my pay rise in years and despite being a qualified lecturer I am struggling to make ends meet. Every day that this drags on just adds to my stress. Revoke!

{MV4 hmm she’s going to run out of ways to tweak her damned WA soon

I bet she has a team dreaming up things to tack onto the MV.}

They lack imagination. There is different coloured paper, fancy fonts, crimp the edges, it could be printed on sheepskin (it is pretty cheap as it is largely unwanted) and it would look a bit like velum. this also has the bonus of a damn good curry and a solution to having too many sheep, win, win, win!

Politicians are jumping up and down about the backstop in the WA. Surely the backstop only comes into effect if we can't find a solution to the NI border problem. So are politicians effectively saying there is no solution to the border issue - that the "alternative solutions" have no basis?

Well quite.

Politicians are jumping up and down about the backstop in the WA. Surely the backstop only comes into effect if we can't find a solution to the NI border problem.

So what is the solution ? How can you have a "border" where there can be no border.

If you think there is a solution then imagine it applied to other areas. Why not Wales and England ? England and Scotland.

Fuck - if you could put an invisible working border between two pieces of contiguous land, imagine how you could parcel up the UK. Every country could have it's own tax regime !

The moment you actually think about how the solution would work, you realise any solution is a pile of shit that can't be delivered. Applying some logic to situation delivers the axiomatic proof that Leavers don't think. Don't blame me. Blame Aristotle.

she said she would happily eat bread and water for the rest of her life!
I know ILs always say this, and I am fine with this. But why do I and their GDC have to do it?! My DM would never wish ill on us.

Meanwhile it looks like there might be a storm brewing about the stripping of NI born Irish citizens of their EU citizenship, which seems to be in breech of the GFA.

I don’t understand this - as Irish Citizenship(and therefore EU Cutizenship) is granted by Ireland so how can the UK strip it? My understanding was it was the UK likely planning to change or end the CTA that was the issue?

Can someone explain or point me in the direction of the relevant info?

Steve Baker MP @SteveBakerHW
This idea of a hard v soft Brexit is the ludicrous invention of opponents of leaving.

The logic of our democratic decision leads to a relationship of the kind the EU offered last year:

bit.ly/EUofferMar

No one can seriously maintain Leavers have not compromised (thread)

1. We are still in the EU nearly 3 years after the Referendum. We accepted the Art 50 route. We then accepted another 18 months of implementation period.

2. We accepted ECJ jurisdiction over the agreement including over how much we pay and EU citizens rights.

3. We accepted £39bn as a price to get to trade talks.

4. We found we had to accept the Number 10 negotiating team negotiating in secrecy.

5. UK Fish were to be treated as outside of the single customs territory for trade purposes as a prelude to fishing rights for trade deal.

6. This was always a bad deal. We compromised and compromised but we were not prepared to accept the threat to our constitution and democracy resulting from the Northen Irish backstop and the acceptance of EU laws over which we would have no say.