Peter Foster
Verified account @pmdfoster
So a quick end of week thread at the end of another momentous #Breit day...which puts us another step closer to the cliff.
Perhaps closer than some realise.
1/Thread
May has lost badly enough that talk of MV4 looks pretty optimistic. The door to May 22 extension closes...and the one to a long extension opens, with #EUCO in April 10. That requires two things... /2
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That the U.K. agrees to hold European Parliament elections on May 23-26 2) Per Mar #EUCO concs, that the U.K. “indicates a way forward”. /3
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requires a statutory instrument to go through Parliament. 2) requires the Government (not Parliament, unless is takes over the executive) to come up with a plan. /4
The first of those looks doable, on the basis that not even this bunch of dimwits we call Parliament is dumb enough to vote against May’s deal, and a “no deal” (160-400) and then refuse to back EU elections...pls someone confirm that. /5
So then we come to the second part. The plan. Can the soft #Brexit factions unite around a plan? Right now, they’re all fighting. CU crowd losing support of PV types; Norway nobs trying to do better next time. In short, no guarantees of a winner still. /6
And if there was a winner, would @theresa_may may accept it? Maybe she would a CU, but surely not a PV or Norway... A Tory PM puts over a Red #Brexit with a dash of blue? Or would she call a General Election? /7
But more importantly, would she do that - or any of this - by Monday week? Coz that’s when Donal Tusk’s office says it wants the details - to prepare draft texts and circulate them. Which means.... /8
There must be a high risk she gets to #euco unable to indicate much of a way forward? Can I have time for a leadership contest? That might lead to a General Election - but almost certainly means a harder line Tory leader (and maybe Brussels’s bete noire Boris).../9
And certainly another 9 months of incoherence and chaos. So question, if you’re Emmanuel Macron? Is that a plan? /10
Because I note audible disconnect between Brussels and London on risk of a “no deal”. Yes, threshold is reasonably low to get extension if we agree to elections. But the bar is not set at zero. /11
There is a complacency in Westminster among MPs that it’s a rubber stamp job...but that might be a careless and dangerous assumption to make. Anyone listening to @StefaanDeRynck at today @UKandEU event in London would not have been reassured. /12
Sabre-rattling perhaps, but remember that Commission won the argument on a hard-ass legalistic approach to U.K. holding EP elections...partly because leaders have had enough...after all the shenanigans and flip-flops of the last three months. /12
Even major voices urging flexibility - including Angela Merkel- need the Brits to provide them with coherent ammunition to counter the Macron faction. Is the offer of another nine months of noise and chaos from London so attractive?/13
Does it help business plan? Does it reward those who, say, bought forward factory holidays to March 29 to have the uncertainly prolonged? Does it help the next EU Commission get on with its reform agenda? /14
And if you’re Mr Macron with an eye on the polls, does a British no-deal shitshow ending May 7, say, help you crush the populist threat at home? Might be short-term thinking, but these are politicians remember? /15
Do I think ‘no deal’ the most likely course? No. But can this government make a big enough hash of this to clinch the argument that the prudent course for the EU is actually to cut the cord. Yes I do. /16
As I said at the top. We are closer to the #Brexit cliff -edge than the Parliamentary majority against a ‘no deal’ would suggest. Key players are will to help us avoid that. But we have to help them, help us. /17
Given what’s gone on the last three months, no-one should bet against the capacity of this government and this prime minister to fumble this. And on that cheery note, wish y’all a bon weekend /18ENDS