Westminstenders: Indicative Crossiants

[RedToothBrush]

Tomorrow the Indicative debate starts at 3pm

The Speaker will choose options to go to vote.

Vote at 7pm for yes or no for each option.

7.30pm The SI debate on extension followed by vote.

Announcement of the indicative vote sometime between 8.15pm and 9.30pm

Meanwhile the DUP have indicated they would prefer a long delay (and presumably EU elections by default) rather than May's deal, in a strange twist of Brexit.

*So ... if the indicative votes are generally about the future direction, doesn’t May still need to get MV3 through?

Otherwise we are left with No Deal (which Parliament has rejected) or Revoke or a long extension and a new WA with different / no red lines?*

Yes I want to know this too. ANd as RTB says above, the cost of a long extension for the EU is thought to be worse. So really, no deal on 12 April or revoke?

Littlespace

'What an ego'

Yes - like a combo of JRM and BoJo combined. And then some.

Stalked out of a high up Treasury position in the late 1970's as he 'felt unappreciated' These days he writes to HM the Queen 'to advise her' (clearly what she's been lacking all these years, lucky her!)
I'm enormously fond of him, but he is really a bit of a monster too.

I don't know why TM thinks anyone will trust her on 'Resignation date' after 'Brexit date' debacle?

How dare she try to strop and blackmail government into doing exactly what she wants?!!

Robert Peston @Peston
So Downing Street source confirms that the leadership election will begin on 22 May, if MPs support the prime minister's deal in third meaningful vote and Brexit happens on that timetable. It is a commitment that there will be "new leadership for phase two" of negotiations...

with the EU, as per what @BorisJohnson demanded to secure his support for her Brexit. I said on Sunday night she would do this, based on conversations with sources, but truthfully I didn't really believe it.

In terms of mechanics, she stays as leader and PM till new leader is in place. So @theresa_may will presumably still be PM till circa July. Also, no guidance available at all about when she would stand down if her deal is not ratified by MPs - which still looks very likely...

What the PM and Downing Street want tonight's narrative to be is that @theresa_may is laying down her political life for what she sees as the good of the country, namely seeing her form of Brexit implemented. The corollary is of course that the Tory Party would have to...

lump her if her deal flops again due in part to the opposition of some her Brexiter ultra MPs - and that remains highly likely

A quick question - if we did join EFTA could be simply rejoin properly at a later date or is accession from EFTA to EU a nightmare?

*ascension, not accession (don't even think that's a word!)

This debunks that Lisbon treaty meme.
fullfact.org/europe/viral-list-about-lisbon-treaty-wrong/

Will Bercow finally name check his third child tonight with amendment O?
Also heard on five live they were arguing about the colour of paper used for the votes tonight as they felt the usual pink was inappropriate. They decided on green.

So technically, if there is a long extension (ergo, Brexit not yet delivered), then May wouldn't need to resign?

Until December of course, when "her" MPs can have another go at casting a VNC. but not the rest of the MPs

Very belated PMK, but also noting that Siameses seem to be over-represented on these threads. (Another plus in my view, should that not be clear.)

Also, why are more people not at the debate? Are they all off wheeler dealer-ing? Or have they already made up their mind?

I think it's wrong fir mps to now back her deal just because she will resign later. It wasnt good enough the first 2 times, why should it go through just because she will leave? It's not a good deal.

Did bercrow say again today that he may not allow it if its not changed?

Feel like Johnson closer to be coming PM.

Although Andrew Percy just seemed to be saying that Johnson has massively pissed people off with his ambitions and will fight against it.

I think she’s even more dangerous than ever. The thought of “not my problem” and “nothing to lose” TM is terrifying. I mean she’s hardly going to hang around as a backbencher, is she? So she doesn’t even have to bother about winning her seat at the next GE.

Has anything actually changed??

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Boris and Raab holed up with Brexiteer MPs in small committee room. Could be movement.

It all hinges on the DUP ; they might have received enough money to tow the line.
Or they might abstain.
She needs 60 votes now to get her deal mark 3 over the line ; ( heard that on lbc earlier)

mrslaughan that Lisbon Treaty nonsense has been debunked by Steve Peers on Twitter (abbreviated to TLDR it’s batshit: twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1087258784001654784?lang=en

And also FullFact - fullfact.org/europe/viral-list-about-lisbon-treaty-wrong/

I can't see why anyone who may have been wavering on WA (other than ERG) would now vote for a phantom ERG PM for the future? Surely it will turn a lot of people off?

Robert Peston @Peston
PS another Downing Street has just telephoned to tell me she is not committing that the writ will be laid for Tory leadership elections to start on the dot of 22 May, but on that day or a few days later.

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt
Govt source: only realistic way to circumvent John Bercow’s ruling on meaningful vote is to incorporate it into Withdrawal Bill (the one implementing Brexit deal). So second reading of that bill would effectively be the meaningful vote

You would think that Johnson would be seen to be a transparent egomaniac. But I think plenty of Tory mps think he's a winner. And mad members think he's great. Parallels with Trump & republicans & supporters seem to be confirmed with the Bannon connection.

Boris is probably thinking he'll just agree now to support the WA but will find a way to wriggle out of it later, in his usual lazy undergraduate hasn't done his research but covers it by spouting inappropriate classical quotes style.

It makes me so angry that they’re prepared to vote for a deal over personality allegiance as opposed to whether it’s the best thing for the country

A quick question - if we did join EFTA could be simply rejoin properly at a later date or is accession from EFTA to EU a nightmare

I don't think it would be because we'd have regulatory alignment with the EU. But of course there would be wrangling over things like Schengen and the euro, and no more special deals like the rebate (though I think that was due to reduce anyway). But it would certainly be easier than crashing out in a no deal scenario and taking 50 years to get the economy back up to scratch, as JRM has predicted.

If we must leave, I favour staying in the EEA as it preserves most of what we have now and does give a springboard to rejoining.