Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

katya adlerr@BBCkatyaadler*

One of EU conditions likely if PM requests lengthy extension, is that UK accepts negotiations with EU are over.

Extension wld be for UK to internally find way forward.

Otherwise EU fears UK cld hold EU to ransom eg: we’ll veto next EU budget unless you give us X in #Brexit deal..

Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox and Chris Grayling left Mrs May in no doubt that they would have to consider quitting the Cabinet if a long delay becomes Government policy.

What, on earth, is the downside to that?

Presumably Leadsom would no longer be Leader of the House, so would be one tiresome nuisance got rid of.

US/UK trade deal - with any sense (a big thing to ask) all the other political parties will spin this as the Tories smashing the NHS, for which they are not likely to be forgiven.

It would give me a very small crumb of comfort if May and Cameron between them succeeded in both smashing up the UK and the Tory party, all because they hadn't got the guts to stand up to 40 or so extremely wealthy Tory men and the odd woman.

Oh god and to think she'll become Baroness May.

Merkel: “I admit that I wasn’t on top of the British parliament’s 17th-century procedural rules."

We can 😂😂 but seriously, the EU must be baffled sometimes having to deal with a country that appears ill-equipped for the 21st century and struggles madly to return to the 19th.

(As baffled as when I tried to explain our mediaeval property / leasehold laws to a German banker at the gym - his eyebrows hit the ceiling )

It is worrying that some in the Cabinet have a Bunker / End of Days mentality

from that Torygraph article:
fearing that a Corbyn GE victory would " turn Britain into a “barren land” with “gulags”._"

That's quite scary, because of course if you believe that, then you would feel justified in extraordinary measures to stop a GE with Corbyn in it ...

Remember the alleged military coup plots during the Harold Wilson govt
Spycatcher told how the intelligence services were plotting too

Erm, is my memory failing or did that New Yorker interview with Banks have one of his companies as Peachy? I'm sure i've seen it connected with him... Here a loan company suggesting people take out a loans to stockpile for Brexit, with same colours as UKIP has just been banned.

I'd be willing to bet it's Banks "having a laugh" at us mere mortals. Although if we No Deal it would be prudent for people to stockpile, so there might be a conflict of public interest?

Bercow isn't banning May from submitting MV3. He just stated what would be the test if she did.

The US Ways & Means Committee has to approve those trade deals, non? Richard Neal is the Chair and not happy about any horse and coach through the GFA.

DUBLIN (Reuters) - An influential U.S. Congressman warned Britain on Thursday that the prospects for any bilateral trade deal could be influenced by what agreement is reached over the Irish border in a Brexit accord.

www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-usa/us-congressman-tells-london-irish-border-could-weigh-on-uk-us-trade-deal-idUSKCN1PW26H

Ah maybe not - re-read and think I was thinking of Brightside or his famous GoSkippy.

It will be interesting to see what US do if we no deal. Dr Fox (of the recent secretive trade deals with 4 years buffer against FOI with US) was surely working on that basis considering his voting history?

Tories threatening to quit if leadership is taken by a 'Brexit Ultra' like Boris, Hunt or Raab.

I seriously think the Tories mis-calculate how much the public has seen of the Brexit debacle. Raab IS a household name for the Calais gaff. Boris has people shouting "shame on you!" every time he leaves his house (but backed by Bannon/Trump so my ever decreasing £ is on him) and Hunt is well known with a catchy monkier (close enough to his name) due to his stint has The Worst Health Secretary In History according to almost anyone who works for or has ever had dealings with the NHS.

Hopefully this will wipe out Tories as all of the electable ones join TIGs. THAT would feel like a fresh start in a Brexit World. Poor sods taking it on though.

Am sure May won't attach people's vote to WA now - if she's cow-towing to ERG for a shorter extension it would be the polar opposite. I'd not grant us anything as it is so clear we are chasing our tail in ever decreasing circles.

I'm also struggling to understand why Leadsom, Grayling and Fox quitting the cabinet would be cause for concern.

Why are the Tory Remainers not also pressing May to accept that she must ask for a longer extension?

And I'm up and awake, worrying. About to go in the garden with a hot milk and listen to the birds singing.

Right now I'm sat at Gatwick waiting to catch a flight to another EU country. Since I started my current job just a couple of months ago I've had to travel to 8 EU countries in as many weeks. This trip is the last before the 29th. No matter what happens, things will be different. I can tell you that of the very different places I've been to recently, they all share a terrible opinion of brexit. I'm not saying it to peddle doom and gloom but being in the fortunate position to speak to so many different Europeans- from business contacts to taxi drivers- the continent seems very united on this... I'd like to shake Theresa May and tell her to wake up. Reason needs to prevail now before the relationship with the continent is irreparably damaged.

And I don't believe for one second the Donald will save us. Use however, yes.

I'd like to shake Theresa May and tell her to wake up. Reason needs to prevail now before the relationship with the continent is irreparably damaged.

Our relationship with our neighbours and a very successful trading bloc is irreparably damaged. That's not all just her fault alone though.

I felt like trying to wake her up when she first took office. I remember planning a day with her. So walking with her on the school run, chatting to the German, Dutch, Belgian parents I know . Perhaps talking to my (NHS consultant) neighbour en route to school then maybe a coffee after drop off with some of the other Mums and the headteacher etc etc.

I no longer feel like this. There's no insightful, visionary, compassionate, inspirational, outward looking sleeping beauty stateswoman inside to awaken. I'm afraid she is rather insular, limited, obstinate, xenophobic and has a tendency to be non collegiate and has some small minded views.

She puts her Tory family and keeping the ERG lot onside above country.She can't be awoken.

She's supposedly going to ask for a short extension. Can't see what good that'll do except force us to crash out in 3 months.

Once we’ve had one extension, it removes the possibility of having another doesn’t it?

No it doesn't Ewe, unless we haven't held elections for the European Parliament in the meantime. If we haven't done that, we can't be a member after July.

I am despondent today, will run out of internet mid morning and won't be able to get anymore till tomorrow, do not have enough stock piled, can't afford anymore, dgd to start private tuition today to help with epq as she is planning a physiological experiment at a cost of £35 an hour that I have to find as mum cannot afford as she's on minimum wage, feeling grotty, dog feeling grotty after eating nearly half pound of butter during the night which I inadvertently left out, and angry that TM is still here!

See you all soon. pass the bottle round to fortify you all my cyber mates!

@Sostenueto , if you have something in the way of food put by, that is better than most. No one, not me not anybody, ever has enough put by for every occasion. Focus if you can now on your emotional resilience confident that you have done something practical for your family.

I've read somewhere yesterday that if it's a short extension the actual absolute deadline for passing the WA becomes 11th April as this is the deadline to start preparations for the EU deadline.

EU Elections

Morning. Just heard that boris is going to be PM but brexit delayed. What? Any truth in the PM bit? Not caught up on the thread or the news yet today.

Beth Rigby confirms TM is going for a short extension not to piss off the Brexiters
We should see the contents of May’s letter to Tusk today. Two options discussed at cabinet y’day (short & linger extension) but asking to go long simply too dangerous to even try at the moment given mood of party.