Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

With Corbyn in place, a GE may not help matters even if Labour got in - he's a Lexiter and is against FO M, so what new dealcould he possibily get ?

Of course, with him as the bogeyman, the Tories would be odds on to win a GE
So same old PM, Cabinet, Grayling, Gove, Loathsome ....

All that is likely to change is that the DUP would no longer have their stranglehold over Brexit
That would be positive

The EU will probably offer a delay. They'll do it to save Ireland who would be also ruined in a no deal along with the EU. After holding out over the backstop, they're not going to throw Ireland and the GFA under the bus now.

So no time for a PV?

Time for a GE?

^^^That shouldve said Ireland along with the UK, not the EU.

Sounds like even Ireland now say the UK must produce a plan for any extension

Sounds like Corbyn may be on the verge of quitting anyway.

(Too good to be true possibly)

A long extension would give time for both GE and PV. And the U.K. may feasibly return with a new plan. But May is too frightened of the headbangers and losing the election to choose the sane option for the good of the country.

btw, going back to Fox and his EFTA deal claims: he was lying

Stig Eidissenn@stigeidi*

Norwegian media reports that the agreement of today only covers tariffs in the event of no deal.

That is very far from a roll-over of the current EEA arrangement, which includes services, capital, non-tariff barriers etc.

Norwegian media also reports that
UK unilaterally will accept technical standards of Norwgian and Icelandic products, but not the other way around apparently.

Liam Fox did manage to make Reuters report that the deal allowed "trade to continue unchanged if [UK] leaves the European Union without a deal".

That is a patently false claim
Please correct

So true.

Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford

New:

Steve Barclay has written to Cabinet announcing Operation Yellowhammer - worst case planning for no deal - will be implemented on Monday

In event A50 extension not agreed over weekend Op Yellowhammer command and control will be 'enacted fully'^

Barclay says that ministers must retain 'public no deal narrative' regardless of whether extension is secured

He says departments should continue to prepare for no-deal on March 29
while also readying themselves for changing plans in event of extension

Barclay on no-deal under A50 extension:

'If an extension is confirmed... it will mean maintaining no deal scenario as operational focus.

'Cabinet will subsequently need to decide whether to futher intensify or scale back efforts, depending on length of extension'

Neither a GE or a PV would give decisive results, in my opinion. Still evenly split. We’d be back where we started.
The only clear and decisive action is to Revoke. TM would need to break the habit of a lifetime and make an honest, heartfelt speech. Explaining how and why No Deal would be a disaster, and how Revoking is the only solution now, but that when the dust has settled, nationwide consultations would be undertaken to ascertain the way forward. The speech of the century.

To get a Revoke...hmmm... the people may have to push for this.

People Power!

Time for a GE?

We are getting 3 month extension. Tops. By the sound of it. Take out six weeks for a GE. What are you left with to do actual Brexit stuff by the time you've done that and the queen's speech etc...

The politicans we have need to make a decision with the facts that we have, within the time that we have before Brexit day,
whenever that is

Daniel Hewitt @ danielhewittitv
I understand a group cabinet ministers will go to see the PM tmrw AM to demand she rules out a long extension. Requests have also gone in for her to appear before the 1922 at 5pm. I’m told anger among Brexiters has spilled over & PM will be told they’ll not tolerate a long delay.

Oh just FUCK OFF.

9 days to go and they are 1922 Committeeing this shit..

FuCK oFF!

Who is running this country? The extreme right wing.

Brexit: (EU) Council adopts a series of contingency measures for a "no-deal" scenario

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/03/19/brexit-council-adopts-a-series-of-contingency-measures-for-a-no-deal-scenario/

The Council today adopted a series of legislative acts as part of its contingency preparations for a "no-deal" Brexit scenario.
...
Social security coordination
....
Erasmus+ and PEACE programmes
....
Fisheries
....
Transport

The EU has taken temporary measures to ensure basic air transport connectivity and basic road freight and road passenger connectivity in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit.

These measures require reciprocity from the UK side < gulp >

< anyone know if Grayling has done this yet ?? >
...
Dual-use items
.....

We are getting 3 month extension

From all that Barnier and Macron said today I’m not convinced a short extension is likely. What could she possibly hope to achieve in that time? Other than another failed MV.

If she has only requested a short extension as reported - 30 June - the EU probably won't grant a longer extension afterwards,
due to EP risk

Barnier says it is EITHER short OR long

So we must hope she asks for a long extension, accepts EP elections,
but asks for the option to cut this extension short and Brexit as soon as a WA has been approved by the EU & UK.

So we must hope she asks for a long extension

Given the pressure she’s under from the Tories I don’t think that’s likely.

A short extension costs / penalises those businesses who have prepared for no Deal.
However, it holds little risk for the EU, as the EP will not sit until 1 July

So they may hope she can get her WA through, given enough time
I can think of no other reason, since a long extension afterwards looks too risky for the EU to allow

TatianaLarina They won't throw Ireland and the GFA under the bus, they've backed them and backed them until now, why would they refuse an extension and destroy them now?

I can’t say for sure what they will do, all I can do is go on what they’ve said today and previously.

The terms that Macron set out today would be unlikely to be achieved by May in the next 3 months.

GD12 Ireland are also saying the UK must justify an extension

The 1922 Cttee have had their go with little Steve Baker and his letters. And if she's going anyway, why does she need to agree to anything those cranks suggest? Oh, except, party is all she has, all she is.

(paywall) Cabinet members could quit over Brexit delay as Theresa May told she risks 'end of the Conservative Party'

Good riddance.
The Tory party deserves to die, after this clusterfuck they created, all to solve their internal party divisions

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/19/cabinet-fractures-brexit-delay-may-warned-could-cause-end-conservative/

Theresa May’s Cabinet is fracturing over her plans for a Brexit delay after ministers told her she was risking “the end of the Conservative Party”

Angry ministers turned on the Prime Minister after she refused to tell them how long an extension she intends to request from the EU,
leaving some suspecting she could ask for a delay of up to two years.

Amid accusations that Mrs May has failed to get a grip on what she admits is a “crisis”, Eurosceptic ministers warned that a long delay would lead to a
Jeremy Corbyn government_ and turn Britain into a “barren land” with “gulags”._
< 😂😂 I'm no Corbyn fan, but those Brexiters are batshit paranoids >

Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox and Chris Grayling left Mrs May in no doubt that they would have to consider quitting the Cabinet if a long delay becomes Government policy.

With just 10 days left before Britain could leave the EU without a deal, Mrs May must write to Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, on Wednesday, specifying the length of delay she wants, and why.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned Britain to prepare for a no deal Brexit unless Mrs May could come up with “something new” to explain how she will get the EU Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament.

During Tuesday’s tense Cabinet meeting Ms Leadsom, the Leader of the House, told Mrs May she could only support a short delay of up to three months, on condition that Britain leaves with no deal at the end of June if Parliament does not back the Withdrawal Agreement by then.

Ministers left the meeting “none the wiser” about Mrs May’s plans but Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, told the BBC there was “a growing risk of no Brexit”.

Dr Fox, the International Trade Secretary, told Mrs May that if a long delay led to Brexit being cancelled it would mean “the end of the Conservative Party”.

Tory MPs already fear the party will be “massacred” at the local elections in May because of its mishandling of Brexit.

One option reportedly being considered by Mrs May was to ask for a short extension to try again to get her deal through Parliament,
with the possibility of a long extension of anything between nine months and two years if the deal is rejected.
But Mr Barnier killed off the idea by saying: “It’s either one or the other, isn’t it?”
....
Downing Street said Mrs May agreed with Robert Buckland, the Solicitor General, that Britain is in a “constitutional crisis” after John Bercow, the Speaker, banned a third meaningful vote on the Brexit deal.

Mrs May must table a Government motion on Monday setting out what she plans to do next, which will be amendable, giving MPs another chance to try to take control of Brexit.

Mr Buckland said it would still be possible to hold a third meaningful vote - possibly on Tuesday - by asking Parliament to first set aside the 400-year-old rule cited by Mr Bercow that the Commons cannot vote on the same motion twice in the same session.

Downing Street confirmed that Mrs May will not revoke Article 50 in any circumstances.

Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, said America is “ready to go” with a US-UK trade deal.

Mr Bolton told Sky News: “We can do these deals quickly. We want to partner with a newly independent Britain.”
🤮 < bend over, here it comes >