Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

Bugger.

I was hoping I was wrong.

Off to book a tesco slot.

And as I am a recent joiner of these threads, if anyone can post some links about operation yellow-bellied-cowards-in-parliament-can't-make-a-decision-we're-fucked (ok, that needs shortening!) then please do so, so that I can see what will happen. Anxiety kicking into overdrive!!

Until we know what's what with regards to TM's letter and the EU's response then nothing is certain (and might not be certain even then) so I refuse to get my knickers in a twist and let twitter posts whip me into a panicked frenzy. Lots of people on twitter have opinions and speculations but they are not the ones making the decisions and until something is definite I'm just going to try and breathe. And mainline kitkats. I have my stash of food, household items, toiletries and medication so I don't need to go shopping for a good while and can hunker down and batten the hatches if need be. I live semi-rurally far enough away from any main towns and am not worried about any civil unrest here. I do worry for others elsewhere though and worry very much for those who have not been able to gather a food buffer. I'll find out where my local food bank is tomorrow and make some donations.
Hold on tight

TheMostBoringPersonEver
On the basis there are pages of Westminsterenders going back for over 3 years, I think with the current pace of progress just try and keep up now, unless you are a very fast reader or have literally nothing else to do.

Have you still got your stash ?
I'd concentrate on moving it to your new place as soon as the legal beagles have done their tricks
In the interim, guard it !

Yes. Apart from the freezer. I've started to run it down. I am inclined to top it up.

Its trying to work out timings of everything. I don't yet know timings with the move and I'm unlikely to know this week. But we could be gone as early as in 3 weeks time at the speed we are going. I think we will be pushing it for first week after Brexit but week after is starting to look possible.

I'd prefer a little longer tbh to hit a bit closer to Easter... But that could in theory be even worse if things go mad!

I could do with either knowing how this brexshit stuff is going or the house. And preferably both.

The stress if the next week is not going to be good.

Thanks TiP, I was really surprised to find...nothing.

Also, I thought she wasnt allowed MV3 unless significant changes? So how will they have MV3 - is the extension a change enough?

Until we know what's what with regards to TM's letter and the EU's response then nothing is certain (and might not be certain even then) so I refuse to get my knickers in a twist

Fuck that I've just realised I haven't got nearly enough chocolate in the house.

GD12 and Red and others, thanks for clarifying Yellowhammer. I’m now feeling sick...

I will try to keep up. I thought there might be a handy go-to reference. No worries, I can google :) Thank you anyway :)

On the Channel Ports website there’s information, but you have to look for it and it’s mostly just links to the Govt info and advice anyway.

Delurking:

Bus , coaches, all affected. This is so insane !

www.gov.uk/guidance/prepare-to-drive-in-the-eu-after-brexit-bus-and-coach-drivers

borntobequiet
This page ^www.doverport.co.uk/cargo/cargo-facilities/^
used to have lots of information about locations of clearance agents and direct links to the C88 and T2 forms ..... along with rough clearance times for groupage, unaccompanied tilt trucks and normal loads (as some stuff comes in from the other side of Schengen sealed)

Brussels want a 2nd ref or a general election.

S'il vous plaît Monsieur Barnier Je rampe à tes pieds,
je suis vraiment désolé, s'il-vous-plaît pardonnez-nous
misérable Anglais voulez-vous nous laisser rester?
Merci beaucoup, Madame May.

So, the Will of the People also decided to leave the Interbus Agreement . ..

Thanks again - yes I looked at Cargo and was surprised to find nothing there.

Do you think we'll get the extend or not decision on Thursday? Am I going to spend my birthday glued to the news?

Interesting discussion going on here. Can't show whole thread - too many tangents.

twitter.com/PietEeckhout/status/1108124355471511553

Piet Eeckhout
‏*@PietEeckhout*

Interesting Art 50 question: if the UK asks for a short extension, can the European Council grant a longer one, and override the UK's request? Text Art 50 does not say that there needs to be agreement about the length. 1/

The extension could in fact be articulated in terms which allow both a short extension - in the event the WA gets approved and ratified - and a longer one. 2/

This could be done by stating that the extension lasts until the entry into force of the WA, and failing that, until a given date (long extension). That would avoid having to go back for a longer extension. 3/

I also think the extension can come with conditions. One of those could relate to EP elections. These conditions would not even have to be set out in the original extension decision. 4/

The Eur Council could give itself the power to make arrangements later, by continuing to be seized of the matter, in the interest of an orderly withdrawal process. That could include making certain arrangements for EP elections. 5/

I also think that, if the WA passes MV3, next week, the European Council should make extension conditional on the provisional application of the WA. 6/

What that means is that the UK Government would commit itself to starting to apply the WA, provisionally, for as long as it has not been ratified in the UK. The latter requires legislation, and who knows what will happen to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. 7/

There is indeed a serious risk that MV3 passes, but that the legislation fails to pass. If there is a short extension, the cliff edge then looms at the end of June. Moreover, this gives an incentive to the hard Brexiteers to resist the legislation and get no-deal. 8/

I would argue that the Art 218 provisions on provisional application extend to the WA. International law allows this any way. And it gets around further political gamesmanship. If the WA starts applying any way, no use resisting its incorporation in UK law. 9/

And the provisional can last for a long time. The GATT - the WTO's predecessor - was applied provisionally between 1947 and ... 1995. END

Our problem is that though the EU Commission / Barnier was able to get unanimously agreed instructions from the E27 for the A50 negotiations,
they don't have this for the extension

So we might have a situation where the E27 can't agree in time .... but one veto is enough to stop an extension

mother
It ALL depends on whether C88s have been imposed on all freight movements (not just lorries but vans as well).
There is plumbing and electric the length of the M20 now

Mother
I suspect that they will ban freight from the tunnel - as it has NO capacity to clear it at either end
so it might be worth you watching that as an option