Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

Oh I know. She was warned, and she has backed herself into this corner by making numerous unnecessary and very poor decisions. That's why it's almost sympathy... I bet she is cringing right now. If I was Philip I'd be saying c'mon Treez, this isn't worth it, just resign and we can go on a lovely long walking holiday.

Dear EU

Extension means extension.

TM

www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24926/jacob_rees-mogg/north_east_somerset

Business of the House (Today): UK’s Withdrawal from the European Union 14 Mar 2019

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. I think it would be helpful to have some clarification, because “Erskine May” says that selection is made by the Chair “in such a way as to bring out the salient points of criticism, to prevent repetition and overlapping….and where several amendments deal with the same point, to choose the more effective and the better drafted.” I understand that...

So we've gone from the Essay Crisis PM to The Dog Ate My Homework PM.

Tiddle come in the march. There are loads of us with children and it's fine. The Tommy Robinson types keep away as there are thousands of us.

Of course she can’t find the words. For that she would need a plan.

Extension means extension.

Red, White and Blue extension

Dear EU

We won.

Get us over it.

Love Teresa

Glad it's not just me: it was JRM's pompous dulcet tones that alerted the non-Parliamentary geeks amongst us getting smaller in number as this shambles teaches us more and more about parliamentary procedure to Erskine May for the first time.

Yet another example of hypocrisy and shooting themselves in the foot

From the Independent:
{“The EU does not want to grant an extension on request for the UK that brings us back to the same point that we are at today, in three months, six months, nine months’ time, having wasted a lot more time”.
The comments by the French, German and Irish ministers are the latest expression of frustration from EU leaders at Britain’s approach to talks, which is seen in Brussels and elsewhere on the continent as erratic, poorly planned and divided. }

That's what you call diplomatic language!

Mark Stone @Stone_SkyNews

Just spoke to @simoncoveney following his day of #Brexit meetings in Brussels. He spoke to @DLidington @MichelBarnier and ministers from the other 26 🇪🇺 countries.
He thinks the 🇬🇧 government will now have a clear idea of how different extension options will be received here.

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
Understand that DUP sounded out Brexiteer leadership candidates out about GB matching NI on regulations, and were not reassured by their answers
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/why-the-dup-are-worried-about-tory-succession/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Why the DUP are worried about Tory succession

This is great. The DUP have realised that the other Tory leadership hopefuls don't give a shit about NI, and aren't like May with her very old fashioned beliefs in the Conservative and unionist party...

But one of those familiar with DUP thinking tells me that one concern they have is over the attitude of Theresa May’s successor to the provision that they are negotiating which would see the rest of the UK follow any regulations that Northern Ireland adopted in the backstop.

And are realising that they are much better off supporting May...

Not seen any 'press' coverage of the truckers 'go slow' is it only on twitter etc or in a 'paper' (bearing in mind it may be the xpress or fail so 'newspaper' would be inaccurate).

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney says EU leaders will be 'demanding' that UK tables 'a new plan of action, potentially a new approach' that has a majority in HoC in return for an extension. 'I don't think there's any appetite amongst leaders to simply kick this can down the road.'

Coveney & Barnier very much on same page tonight. If her deal fails to pass May has to come back to Brussels & lay out a detailed pathway to new UK approach. I.e. parliamentary votes leading to General Election, 2nd Referendum or rewriting of Political Declaration (soft Brexit).

prettybird JRM does indeed seem to have mentioned Erskine May rather a lot in parliament www.theyworkforyou.com/search/?q=Erskine&pid=24926#n4 so probably in interviews too.

PMK, thank you Red.
As usual nothing really to add, but I was musing earlier does anyone think that when do have an election, that the nationalists in NI would possibly vote for another party other than Sinn Féin & unionists other than the DUP so they would have a more moderate voice to represent them , especially as SF do not take seats in the Hoc does such a party exist now?

Dear DUP

Theresa May checkmated herself with your help. You lost. Get over it.

(Sorry, distracted by children and forgot to refresh. 34 mentions though)

I (almost) feel a little bit sorry for her. Imagine being her, having spent the last couple of years insisting that Brexit means Brexit and the date she chose is the date we leave, and now she has to write a letter asking the people she's insulted a great deal can we please, please not Brexit quite yet because she's fucked it all up...

I don't have any sympathy for her at all, and her rigid approach is a big part of the problem, but she did get a deal with the EU and it was a better deal than anyone had any right to expect given the red lines imposed by May and her advisors early in the process.

It must be galling that after all that effort it's not good enough for the ERG. Her mistake was not understanding that nothing would be good enough. But almost everyone made that mistake too, including the EU, almost all remainers, and some otherwise-sane leavers.

I don't really understand where we are now because work is too busy for more than a cursory skim read of news on twitter after dinner, but as things stand it's not obvious to me how we avoid no deal.

Long Extension or Short Extension?

Where shall she get expert advice now Maplins is closed?

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
A brexit supporting MP said: “I believe in brexit but I now wish remain had won. This is such a hassle. We could be talking about other things”

Name them!!!

Just hopping on thread

May still annoying me with her bad decisions that have led to this

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Why didn’t Theresa May anticipate Bercow’s statement on MV3?

Last Thursday May went up to Chris Bryant to thank him for not moving his amendment (on whether MV3 cd be brought back)

She told Bryant it was one of his “best speeches ever”.

So she was perfectly aware of the issue

Bryant was telling anyone who would listen that he pulled the amendment so the issues had a “run around” on the Commons floor ahead of this week (hint hint hint hint hint)

Yet they didn’t plan for it

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Opposition parties meeting today

Revocation was raised. Corbyn silent on issue. Some others considering if it’s the only way to stop no deal but no agreement reached

Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar
More from Cabinet earlier: I understand that Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson told the PM to "trust her instincts" that a longer extension would cause division in the Tory party.