We need Time!
Its the one thing we don't have.
Todays vote is on extending a50.
To the displeasure of leavers, Bercow has selected amendments:
e) Corbyn Amendment
demands the government should “provide parliamentary time for this house to find a majority for a different approach”.
h) Wollaston Amendment
cross party amendment requesting to extend to allow the ability to legislate for a PV
i) Benn Amendment
cross party backbenchers take over parliamentary time from 20th March to find a majority way forward which gives justification for an extension
j) Bryant Amendment
prevents meaningful vote III
After yesterday's vote, May is left with effectively four options:
1) Pass the WA and go for a short technical extension.
An extension would have numbers in the HoC, but passing the WA is a struggle and it's reliant on the EU granting extension which is probably viable in this circumstances.
2) Be defeated getting the WA through and be forced into asking for a long extension as a result. This would include EP elections.
This option is politically toxic to the tories and its unlikely a long extension would pass the HoC. The EU would still need a justification for a long extension - a PV would be the natural option - but not clear if that could pass the HoC. Ditto passing legislation for EP elections. Whole scenario is unlikely
3) Be forced to revoke
Tory party big red button of self destruct
4) Actively decide to pursue an illegal no deal Brexit
Let's not think of the ramification
Going through this at speed, my initial reactions to this are:
If e) passes it doesn't really make much difference to May's choices here, but Labour might have more say.
If h) passes it might make 2) more likely
If i) passes it might open up alternative options
If j) passes we might have a real issue if its the only amendment that passes - it would leave a straight choice of Revoke or No Deal UNLESS i) passes as well.
But there might be other things that are not hitting me right in the face now.
As it stands, Hard Line Brexiteers were earlier today making noises that they would now support the WA - including whispers that this would include the DUP who would be likely to set off a chain reaction of support.
However which (if any) amendments pass today could well affect whether thats even a possibility.
As a result this vote needs to carry the health warning 'Be Careful what you wish for'. What you would LIKE might be extremely high risk and might jeapordise the main vote and the chances of an extension at all.
So whilst Leavers might be unhappy about the choices, it might well ultimately work best for No Dealers. Or it could be a gift for Remainers. Bercow's selections are not necessarily biased for this reason. He does not know the outcome here. If anything it looks like he's actually trying to put more options on the table for the house, rather than allow May to dictate to the house. Which is exactly what he should be doing. He's given parliament the power.
I suspect we will not fully understand what is going on tonight EVEN MORE than last night. And it will take a short while for everyone to calibrate what the eventual result actually is going to mean.
THIS is the most important vote yet. And it has the potential its going to end up m-e-s-s-y.