Brexititeers- what are you looking forward to?

[lunicorn]

Just as an aside, I tried typing Brexiteers into the subject bar and it auto corrected to Brexiteers rest home.

Parliament's sovereign is it - who'd have thought it.

A really obvious point occurred to me. If we exit now there'll be time for the shortages, price rises meltdown to sink in before the next election. So obviously the saner Torys would try and extend until closer to an election? If the EU will allow that.

It is actually interesting about the Survation figures. I check polls periodically but that lead is new. I think Labour has had a slight lead once before since 2016 but mostly the Tory’s have stayed consistently ahead in the polls throughout this whole debacle.

The latest YouGov voting intention survey says 35% would vote Tory ( a significant drop from 40% ten days before ).

Labour stay on 31% unchanged from the last survey.
Liberal Democrats are on 12% (from 11%). Votes for other parties stands at 21% (from 18%).

latestYouGov_ poll

It's almost hilarious- how they despise parliamentary sovereignty, that thing this is all supposed to be about.

After the Bercow decision it looks like WA = Waved Away. Only 3 options available now which are:

Leave with no deal (the current default position in Law) on 29 March.

EU agrees to an extension to Article 50 (not a certainty as all other 27 EU members have to agree) before 29 March.

May revokes Article 50 before 29 March and accepts that Conservatives will never be voted in again for generations.

An extension with many conditions by EU is my best guess. Such conditions might include:

Gibraltar is handed over to Spain.

Scotland and NI are to remain in EU even if UK does Brexit in the future.

UK must have a second referendum. If condition is that Scotland and NI can remain in EU regardless then they will likely vote remain in even larger numbers than in 2016.

Second referendum question is set by Brussels. May as well as they have set everything in the past?

Where did you get that list from Beers? As if the EU would impose any of those conditions. Pure fantasy.

Naming the 3 options is correct but the EU can't directly impose any of the other conditions.
If the EU had the amount of control over UK sovereignty to make those conditions they would have done far more than wait for the UK to make it's mind up over the WA since November.

Bet there are conditions of some description before an extension is agreed. Making UK pay for further delay will likely be high on the list.

{Making UK pay for further delay will likely be high on the list.}
Since the institutions that gain value from being an EU member will be continuing to benefit, of course the UK will be paying during any delay.
About £1 Billion a month I believe.

About £1 Billion a month I believe

So if delayed by 2 years that is £24 Billion payment to EU. Add UK's losses since referendum that are estimated to be up to £100 Million per day then a big chunk of the anticipated Brexit dividend has already gone?

"Gibraltar is handed over to Spain.

Scotland and NI are to remain in EU even if UK does Brexit in the future.

UK must have a second referendum. If condition is that Scotland and NI can remain in EU regardless then they will likely vote remain in even larger numbers than in 2016.

Second referendum question is set by Brussels. May as well as they have set everything in the past?"

More fantasy island stuff.

a big chunk of the anticipated Brexit dividend has already gone?

“What price Freedom?” “It’s about something greater than jobs and money!” etc.

{So if delayed by 2 years that is £24 Billion payment to EU. Add UK's losses since referendum that are estimated to be up to £100 Million per day then a big chunk of the anticipated Brexit dividend has already gone?}

If you were paying attention, up until 29 March the 'bill' for the contributions to the EU is around £19 Billion, that is agreed.
Originally (2 years ago) the WA was projected to take 2 years to negotiate and so the UK would be in a transition period during which it retained most of the advantages of being a member (like free trade access to 70 countries) for which a 'cost' of about £20 Billion, hence leaving with a WA is around £39 Billion.
Delaying the commencement of the WA would of course require paying for.
Since the true enormity of actually leaving is getting through to both the EU and to a lesser extent the UK who are still in unicorn land the EU have estimated it could take 3 or more years to complete the transition period. The upside to this is that the UK receives food and medication etc uninterrupted until the end of the transition period.

Warning -I have done some previous googling to address previous posters talking inaccurately about the ECJ.

In fact we only ask the ECJ to get involved in 0.0000012 % of our cases.

I will find and repeat my previous post explaining this further with links.

If you were paying attention, up until 29 March the 'bill' for the contributions to the EU is around £19 Billion, that is agreed

If UK has to pay £1 Butler month for delay and delay is 24 months then that is £24 Billion UK has to lay EU in addition to whatever UK has to pay for existing commitments and agreements.

Sorry my earlier post was in response to the much earlier discussions on this thread about the ECJ. I won't pursue it further now as the discussion has moved on -but you get the gist.

When talking about anything to do with the national government it helps to talk in percentages and not millions and billions. To all of us money like this sounds a lot but governments see expenditure in terms of GDP. For example the government had a GDP of $ 2,622 trillion to play with in 2017.

Just to add my comments to what was being said upthread .. the EU and the ECJ have a very, very limited remit compared to our own. For example in the 13 years 2003–2016 there were only 63 judgments handed down by the ECJ on UK infringements. This is 4.9 UK cases per year. This is compared to over 3,822,000 cases we deal with each year domestically in UK courts and tribunals.
Its a tiny percentage. In the same way our contributions to the EU were less than 1% of our GDP.

To try and get your head around thee issues you need to think bigger.

And when we think it can't get more chaotic or worse...comes another day

• No-one knows (incl TM) what the f... the UK will be asking for. 3 months, 6 months, 2 years extension... ?
• Eu probs won't be debating it this week, as they have nothing to debate. That means that the final outcome will be in literally the last few days of a deadline.....
• PErsonal political agendas rule instead of looking at what's good for the country
• Does anyone realise that we 9!!! days only?

Playing chicken is fine until one point, but this is ludicrous!

TM has asked for a three month extension, think that's confirmed now.

Now to see if all 27 countries agree... they all said that a short extension would be agreed only if the UK needed a technical extension if the WA passed. That hasn't happened.

But not either of the options the rest of the EU said were on offer!

{If UK has to pay £1 Butler month for delay and delay is 24 months then that is £24 Billion UK has to lay EU}
I think when this was announced it was intended to cover only 2 or 3 months and was an estimate.
The bill is not expressed in Pounds Sterling so it's actual value will alter.
It is also not due as one lump sum but over several years.
Depending on negotiations the whole finance issue will be revisited as there is a small matter of the ridiculous amount the EU has had to fork out to be considered.

Now to see if all 27 countries agree

Can't see it happening. Spain will only agree if they get Gibraltar in return. One of the many smaller EU members who take from the EU as opposed to contributing might say no because they think their subsidy will be reduced when UK leaves. "If I am going down I am going to take others down with me" comes to mind.

I know the threads moved on since the first page, but the idea that someone voted for Brexit to encourage diversity is one of the funniest/not-funny head fucks I've ever read.

As for 'principals are more important than economics', if only I could feed my kids on principals...

I would imagine Spain is just as concerned about formenting separatism which No Deal would do.

@Gronky the UK had sovereignty over our immigration policy and can can admit or not admit commonwealth people as we pleased. Nothing to do with the EU.