Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

BigChoc, I remember when the AfD started it was on a (solely) anti-Euro platform (I thought of them as cranks - still do, tbf, but unfortunately influential and racist* cranks).

*To a degree. There's definitely a more moderate, 'bürgerliche' wing (which it sounds as if your local bloke belongs to - 'moderate' obv being relative) which is rather embarrassesd by the antics of the unfortunately more vocal rest. And support for Europe, of course, doesn't exclude xenophobia - the E in Pegida stands for Europäer, after all.

Any opinions on which amendments Bercow will choose ?

Maybe b) and g) of those

I presume Labour & Tory amendments will come shortly

Funny how it's only remain that need to get their many views and voices over in these amendments. Leavers get 1:1 with TM and meetings with EU, "amendments" to agreements hashed out over last minute late night talks.

Once again feeling beaten down by lack of remain voices at the table, despite HoC seeming largely to understand this would be the sensible option. No, I don't think we can ever stay (EU would probably let us but as mentioned by others, we have done enough damage).

I don't know what I'll do with my spare time if I emigrate and don't feel compulsions to check news and look for impacts of Brexit . My life has been taken over by this, I'm sure many on these threads feel
similarly, that I can't imagine being far enough away that I can go back to letting a government get on with their job without feeling they might very well impose martial law or will be threatening the health and safety of my children . Those once seemed very normal assurances.

FourofTwo Yes, I was working in Germany when the AfD started, with the Euro coming in
There was a lot of disquiet about giving up the DM, but amost all reluctantly accepted it as the price for being allowed german reunification.
The AfD then was quite mc professional - those who had lots of DMs to be concerned about ! - but very much a minor party

Talking of leadership contests....

B and g were my thoughts BCF.

Tbh I think amendments tomorrow and Thursday are more important than today. Any similar laid AFTER knowing the outcome today (and possible size of defeat) may have more support

lonelyandtired It's shown us how what can seem like a minority interest of cranks can suddenly blow up and damage the whole country

Government is very vulnerable in Europe & the US to populism, so our lives can be drastically affected with comparatively little notice.

Concerning for those of us who had planned a quiet retirement, away from it all.
Too dangerous now to zone out from politics

Labour might not table any amendments, preferring a clean vote on the WA?

I think a clean vote is preferable today tbh.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3530960-Westminstenders-Are-we-nearly-there-yet?watched=1

New thread with summary a little early as I'm about to go out for most of the rest of the morning.

Susan Not sure whether to 😂 or 😱 but that's a fair summary of leadership contenders

I doubt i'll ever fully disengage with politics unlike the 3mil ppl who will likely never vote again that have changed our country irrevocably but doing it from another country where politicians are just getting on with 'business as usual'. I'm sure psyops will affect every country in some way in the coming years, but a few years off from worrying about the effects on my child would be nice.

{ I'm sure psyops will affect every country in some way in the coming years,}
I am sure this will be a very loud klaxon reverberating around the EP. Other countries have already commented on 'influence' and are presumably finding ways to counter it. Maybe as they don't have a 'special relationship' with the USA there is a healthy skepticism which puts the USA at least at arms length.

Itis1 Yes, I think the huge investment of Russian money/money laundering we've allowed for decades combined with our "special relationship" is why we've been targeted.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-47538402

Police investigate IRA link to suspect packages. Is anyone surprised?

www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/which-of-this-weeks-three-historic-brexit-votes-are-you-20190312183449

Cox has released his advice.
Here's the conclusion

In my letter of 13 November 2018, I advised that the protocol [ie, the backstop] would endure indefinitely in international law and could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believed that talks have clearly broken down and there was no prospect of a future relationship agreement.

I also advised that in the specific case that situation was due to the EU’s want of good faith and best endeavours, because of the difficulties of proof and the egregious nature of the conduct that would be required to establish a breach by the EU of those obligations, it would be highly unlikely that the United Kingdom could take advantage of the remedies available to it for such a breach under the withdrawal agreement.

I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the joint instrument and the content of the unilateral declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.

It may be thought that if both parties deploy a sincere desire to reach agreement and the necessary diligence, flexibility and goodwill implied by the amplified duties set out in the joint instrument, it is highly unlikely that a satisfactory subsequent agreement to replace the protocol will not be concluded. But as I have previously advised, that is a political judgment, which, given the mutual incentives of the parties and the available options and competing risks, I remain strongly of the view it is right to make.

However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.

And the whole pdf
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/785188/190312_-_Legal_Opinion_on_Joint_Instrument_and_Unilateral_Declaration_co..__2.pdf

The UK has also been targeted because we speak English. It wouldn't be quite as easy to infiltrate German or French social media.

However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement

TL;DR - nothing has changed.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/03/12/brexit_border_defra_it_not_ready/

The UK government has moved so slowly to prepare for a no-deal Brexit that backup plans for IT systems will be burdensome and more error-prone, MPs on the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) have warned.

(contd)

{The UK has also been targeted because we speak English. It wouldn't be quite as easy to infiltrate German or French social media.}
There is this but also there has been a stronger Euroskeptic theme in the UK than in Europe itself. The USA and Russia particularly would like to break up or at least curb the EU's strength and the UK is ideally placed to crack it open.

Has anyone estimated numbers yet?

Seems a fair amount of the ERG will be persuaded but some hardliners won't (20?)

A lot rests on the DUP and number of labour rebels.

Does anyone know any good estimates for labour rebels?

I feel like there must be at least a couple of journos with big boards with each MPs name on that they move around as per House of Cards...

The USA and Russia particularly would like to break up or at least curb the EU's strength and the UK is ideally placed to crack it open.

The problem with being used as a chisel, is it tends to blunt metal ....

Seems a fair amount of the ERG will be persuaded

Really ?

Given Cox' admission nothings changed, why would they ?