Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

Does anyone understand what the fuck is happening or likely to happen?

Currency markets think the likelihood of no deal has gone down. But they've been very wrong before.

I'll be on a plane this evening in blissful ignorance.

Kitty Donaldson (Bloomberg) just tweeted:

Former AG Dominic Grieve said he had received legal advice overnight that the concession ``doesn't change anything.'' "I am quite clear in my own mind it doesn't allow the U.K. to exit the backstop unilaterally,'' Grieve told @BBCr4today

Mistrigri, I'm reading it as there being an initial boost in support for May as she has 'claimed victory' and the press have been rather kind about it.

My suspicion is during the course of the day that initial excitement is going to wear off and the veneer that this is an opportunity for Brexiteers to climb down will become very thin indeed (it will only need a couple of loud mouth Brexiteers on the news proclaiming their Brexit purity for all the others to feel the need to proclaim their own Brexit Identity being just as pure).

By this afternoon the ERG and DUP will be going this is a pile of shite, I'm not voting for it and some of the soft Labour lot who might have been willing to go for it if it sounded good enough in the media won't take the risk to their own political careers (they can hide behind workers rights and the backstop trap).

Thus by about 4pm things are going to start sounding a bit panicked. And we might start to hear noise about possible resignations. And veiled demands that May should go.

Amber Rudd @amberruddhr
The deal the Prime Minister has negotiated, with the additional legal reassurances, represents a good deal for Britain and I urge all colleagues to back it.

Once it passes the benefits will be felt nationally and business and consumer confidence will surge. #BackTheDeal

Let's see how many of these are about from Cabinet members this morning. Then see what the gossip over who said what is later.

Did she get anything at all from these talks?

Pretty much no.

Nothing which isn't political words designed to try and appeal to British ears.

So TM's been quite clever in her latest move I think.

Clearly this wasn't all sorted out last night...she's agreed with the EU to keep any announcement back until the very last minute as she knows any time the ERG are given would be used to whip up public support against the concessions (such that they are). The ERG using this then to conceal their true motives with the "will of the people".

Instead the ERG are now left with only a few hours to consider how to vote without time to intervene in the MSM papers before the vote, no time to really influence public opinion or even see how Leavers are taking it. The positive spin from the Torygraph will make them quite uncertain.

So I think a good proportion of the ERG will capitulate and vote for the deal. There will be the hardest of hardcore who won't.

I think the DUP in the end will vote for it.

Might be close?

The Times headline "May Claims Victory" is not a headline saying "Victory for May".

It very much reminds me of something my late DF used to talk about in respect to the last War. He read "The Maginot Line can be said to stretch to...."; he immediately read it as a coded message: "the Maginot line doesn't stretch as far as they say it does". This turned out to be the truth. So May has produced something which might allow the ERG to save face, but whether they will take it, is debatable.

Chuka Umunna @ chukaumunna
Here’s @TheIndGroup amendment to the PM’s Brexit motion being debated today. Our position:
✅ Indicative votes on the options by 21 March
✅ Request an extension long enough to hold..
✅ a #PeoplesVote on the option commanding a Commons majority
✅ If necc revoke to stop no deal

A single amendment with all that in? Would pass.

Wouldn't pass sorry.

Katy Balls @ katyballs
Theresa May needs a domino effect today - DUP come around to her deal with concessions and then the rest starts to fall into place with majority of Brexiteers coming around. If it starts to look close, PM could unlock around 30 Labour votes

That said May’s supporters currently have their eyes on keeping the show on the road rather than all out victory - can they reduce the scale of the defeat by a significant amount?

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Here is your political day:
- 9.30am Cabinet
- 11.15am Barclay at Brexit select cttee
- Early PM May opens MV#2 debate (could be UQ on Cox advice first - all eyes on its publication this am)
- 7pm voting starts
@KayBurley on Green from 2pm & special prog on @skynews from 6pm

Don't forget the obvious that Amber Rudd and Co are politicians. They are still young enough to have ambitions, so want to be in the right place to achieve those, but at the same time know that they could still be in public life in 20 years time when there is some sort of public enquiry as to what they did during the Brexit fiasco, so they are making sure now they get their ducks in a row.

Hence I think William Hague's statement, which was quite statesman like, I thought. He's been there, done that, got the t-shirt, as far as the Tory party goes and can afford to take a dispassionate view.

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
How do you turn 230 vote defeat (432 v 202) into victory? Change the mind of 116 MPs.....May needs >
- 10 DUP
- Up to 65 of ERG (about 110 in group)
- 4 Independents (Field/Lady Hermon/Kelvin Hopkins/Ian Austin)
- Up to 40 Lab leave MPs 🤯

I'd say, if she can't get the DUP the whole thing falls apart. So they are the ones to watch today.

I went to bed early last night with the expectation that May wouldn't be bringing anything unexpected to the table. Seems I was right.

I agree with Red in the view that we'll get a better idea of voting over the day and I think it'll get steadily more negative as the day goes on. I don't believe the WA will pass (I've never believed it'll pass and this view hasn't changed in the least). The defeat will be less but it'll still be a defeat. That's my prediction for the day, for what it's worth.

While I'm very angry at May's political game, I'm also now wondering how on earth she has the energy to keep going. Flight to Strasbourg and late meeting last night, Cabinet at 9.15 this morning, with three days of high stakes voting to come.

www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/theresa-may-why-the-commons-should-support-this-improved-brexit-deal-today.html
Theresa May: Why the Commons should vote for this improved Brexit deal today

May writes for Conservative Home.

So, the WA faces likely defeat.
There's no appetite for crashing out (I am ignoring the ERG)
An extension is possible but dependent upon why we need it.
Revoke is still possible but politically explosive.

I can't see May coming back again with the same reheated deal, especially as the EU is out of patience.

I honestly don't know where we will go from here.

I can't see May coming back again with the same reheated deal, especially as the EU is out of patience.

Yup, I think it's all May's got and she is psychologically incapable of changing course. The only hope is that parliament grows a bloody backbone and a vague degree of sense and intervenes, but I'm not holding out much hope. I still think we'll get no deal by default.

This is probably why I'm now on psych meds.

Former AG Dominic Grieve said he had received legal advice overnight that the concession ``doesn't change anything.'' "I am quite clear in my own mind it doesn't allow the U.K. to exit the backstop unilaterally,'' Grieve told @BBCr4today**

But isn't that a good thing from AG's/Remainers' pov? As in, we shouldn't be able to exit the backstop unilaterally?

Also out tonight, which I'm glad about.

Grieve has a sense of integrity that 'codpiece' Cox lacks entirely. Of course we can't exit unilaterally. What would be the point of any agreement if you could? His 'advice' is a joke.

Is the little detail that will trap the ERG/DUP the bit about sorting a tech solution before whenever (can't remember exact date)?
They've been saying this is easy peasy for ages now, so all they have to do is sort it out and voila! no backstop needed.

I went to bed early last night with the expectation that May wouldn't be bringing anything unexpected to the table.

I wish I had

I dozed off in front of the tv and woke up just in time to hear Ken Clarke talking about ‘ERG headbangers’. I was lucky to not snooze for a few minutes longer, or I would’ve woken to have JRM looming over me. Then I had a very bad night, as my subconscious seems to associate JRM with the Child Catcher from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang