Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

David Aaronvitch @ daaronvitch
Katya Adler on @BBCRadio4 World Tonight trying to make it clear that the EU has NOT moved on the backstop. All talk otherwise is smoke and mirrors.

I'm exasperated at UK Remainers claiming things which just don't agree with what is being said in Germany. Reaminers seem to share the Leavers belief that the EU will do what we want

They don’t though. You’ve invented a perspective for U.K. Remainers which has nothing to do with reality.

After transition, the EU retains its trade with the rest of the world, all its agencies too, so they think within 20 months transition, they can sort out the 10% or so of their trade that is with the UK

To me, this seems like a win-win for the rest of the EU - much carries on as currently, i.e. JIT, planes flying, but they kick out Farage and his ex-chums, who have mostly jumped ship from UKIP now anyway, so don't have us being a thorn in their side.

Meanwhile the Remain/Rejoin camp really has to get its act together to state the benefits of being a committed member - not a half arsed member as we were. Eventually we might as a country realise that the Empire is well and truly gone, we are a small country off the north western corner of Europe and we need them more than they need us.

James Hogg @ jameshogg
I know it's a cliche but... are the government really trying to take us all for fools?

David Aaronvitch @ daaronvitch
No, they're trying to take Conservative MPs for fools. Slightly easier task.

My guess on the little / unclear info we have is that nothing of any substance has changed and Lidington is talking it all up on May's behalf. It's a rerun of her calling a 10pm press conference and having nothing to say. I'm going to bed and we'll see how much worse everything is tomorrow.

Until the HoC votes for another alternative, it's the WA or No Deal

Until I actually see this alternative, I'll regard it as a unicorn

In response to David Allen Green's scathing

Adam Wagner @adamwagner1
Wait David. Wait.

They. Are. Lodging. The. Changes. With. The

UNITED NATIONS

That sound you hear is the rest of the world laughing.

I think some remainers still have an iota of trust that our govt wouldn't really harm it's own people. I spoke to 2 at the school gates who merrily told me about Easter holidays all booked.

I feel like a social outcast because I am convinced we will No Deal and have little time or patience for anyone suggesting otherwise. It's fun to imagine May resigning in a desperate attempt to extend, but it's more fantasy on my part than belief.

It is very frustrating, similar to seeing the leaver 50+ demographic proclaiming living costs will decrease, to hear remainers clutching at straws that have little logical traction.

But can we not fight? I enjoy coming here to discuss little aspects of a largely complex situation. None of us have to be right because in Brexit we all loose.

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Here's tmrws Brexit motion, just passed to me.

Note the phrase "reduces the risk". ERG would have preferred "eliminates the risk" of an indefinite backstop.

I thought Tatiana's post was quite restrained!

Have never believed all the no-dealing scare stories, May had zero intention of no-deal and if remainer MPs vote for her WA, then more fool them.

I'll listen/read with respect to anyone's point of view but equally BCF shouldn't dismiss other remainers who want a revoke or an efta style deal, it is not "pie in the sky thinking" BCF does not have a direct handle on what the EU will or wont agree to.

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
First ERG impressions not good

Steve Baker tells R4:

Even by Govt's own standards this falls very far short of what [it] whipped us to vote for

It's not for the first time that David [Lidington] has had to put a good gloss on something that falls short of what was expected

Going well then...

can we park the arguing? With anxiety running high we don't need infighting at the moment. There's enough going on.

I'm off to sleep now.

When is 'legally binding' not legally binding?

When it's 'legally binding'.

That would be great OhYouBadBadKitten

This thread helps me de-stress.

I'll continue saying I think it's this WA or No Deal
until the HoC actually come up with an alternative and vote for it

No Deal is by far the most likely outcome though

May doesn't want a No Deal, but she'd let it happen rather than split her party.
She doesn't think longterm, because she's too busy surviving day to day.

WIll the HoC let themselves be fooled ?

The EU might be more accommodating under other circumstances but there is a real existential threat posed by populism and if the UK remains beyond the EP elections, it would probably join the populist bloc. The EU won't want that, especially Germany I think.
The WA is unpalatable, like all compromises but it's a compromise and keeps the UK in working order while not wreaking havoc on the EU. It crucially allows transition and who knows what might happen (I'm glass half full here).

Here comes May and Juncker

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Key point tonight, Lidington talks about new UK right to 'suspend' the backstop. not END the backstop. That will worry many Brexiteers.

Don't think I've seen this posted on here yet (from The Mirror, for the optimists amongst us and a jovial peace offering, Nobody Wants This Brexit):

If you have to blackmail the Prime Minister, Cabinet and Parliament; threaten your friends; ignore the predictions of businessmen, scientists and experts; commit the grossest breach of campaign finance law in history; steal people's data' rely on Russian bots, fake news algorithms and racists; paint lies on a bus and keep Chris Grayling in a job because he was one of the people who thought this was all a great idea, then it's almost certainly a festering dungheap of a plan and it should be ditched before the cack hits the spreading device.

Kevin Doyle @ kevdoyle_indo
#BREAKING
View from Dublin:
1. Withdrawal Agreement is unchanged
2. Joint statement is a legal interpretations of what’s in the WA (agreed by both sides)
3. Unilateral statement is UK talking to themselves.

Mood in Gov Buildings described as “calm”. #Brexit

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
This is interesting because there had been talk that @DLidington and @simoncoveney had agreed not to dump on the deal....
suggests it was a stormy night with the Irish. #Brexit

Irish aren't impressed by our shit then.

Reaminers seem to share the Leavers belief that the EU will do what we want

I don't think we do. I think we hope that someone on our side will see some sense and call out that the Emperor has no clothes.

Littlespaces

In the miniseries " North and South " about the US civil war, Southern Loyalists in the North wore a colored pin on their clothing indicating that they were Southern Loyalists dedicated to the Union.

This helped prevent trouble with locals from the North.

It might be a wise idea to keep any EU garb that you have, particularly something like a small pin or button that is practical to wear if you want / need to go to an EU country post a no-deal Brexit.

While the UK would be badly hurt, the countries of the EU will be hurt as well and there may be someone who lost a good job because of Brexit who is just dying to have a go either verbally or physically with someone from the UK.

That pin or button would signify that you were against leaving the EU and being stripped of your EU citizenship rights so it might be enough to avoid trouble.

Most people would probably be okay but it might be one or two belligerents you might have to worry about.

What is the practical difference?

Surely suspending the backstop would not be acceptable to the EU either

it could mean goods checks NI / RoI for the duration of the suspension