Westminstenders: Here we go again

[RedToothBrush]

Vote 12th March: Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

Vote 13th March: If WA fails, vote on No Deal

Vote 14th March: If WA fails, vote on A50 extension

Not much more to add at this stage that's not repeating what's been said before.

Elements
LOVE IT

If the Kyle amendment on a vote between the WA and Remain got through the House of Commons would it have to happen ? Could Theresa May ignore it ? Would the electoral commission have to approve ?

Not within the remit of the electoral commission.

Would May have to obey? Would depend if its legally or politically binding. May might take the option of resigning rather than remaining. Or do her usual trick of forcing another vote until she gets one she likes. This would be democratic of course. Unlike the concept of letting the public vote again.

Thanks TiP - I'm heading over to the gardening thread now to ask for further floral tips (to avoid derailing this thread).

Post WA my concern atm is a cross party backbench takeover of the Brexit process (good), that hashes out a compromise soft Brexit (pah).

Immediately the WA is signed and has been fully ratified the UK government will swing into action and dazzle the country by presenting all the fabulous trade deals it has secured, pour loads of money into the NHS and sort out UC and the Northern powerhouse etc.
Or maybe a year of squabbling.

Just a year????

Well once the WA is signed, the EU can sit and wait for the UK to make the next move. EU based companies can evaluate the direction the UK will take by observing what is happening and they will make plans (or carry them out if they have already charted some scenarios out) as appropriate.

I’m a bit behind today but was struck by TiP’s description of her shock at the ignorance of Remain left wingers. Last week I taught a selection of engineering apprentices needing Functional Maths Level 2 because their quals were out of date (or certificates long lost) not recognised (ie foreign) or non existent. I never ask outright - it can be problematic - but it turned out all were generally clear about the significance of March 29th, understood the impasse in Parliament and very worried about the prospect of leaving the EU and the effect leaving would have on industry and jobs. These were pretty blue collar chaps, some old style working class (oldest was 60, a record for me). We had quite an interesting discussion.
Anyway I did my stats lesson with the punchline “never trust a politician who uses the word average. Always ask yourself, which average are they using and why?”

Pmk stressed

Thanks pretzels and Red for answering my questions on the Kyle amendment.

I am due to make a trip to the garden centre so must copy the blue and yellow floral idea, elements.
DD went out in her new Euro T-shirt today, and got one disapproving look, from what she thought would be a trendy Remainers cafe - strong Remain area here.

Ooooh an EU garden theme-I like it! I'll add that to my suffragette theme so I'll have violet, white and green in some tubs and blue and yellow in others

[Manfred Weber is the EPP’s (centre right) candidate for President of the EU Commission, Juncker's successor]

StefanieBolzen@StefanieBolzen

Exclusive: Front-runner for EU election Manfred Weber rejects extension of #Brexit talks in @welt interview

'UK should leave on March 29', 'extension only if there are technical reasons', 'too much time has been wasted'

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus190041373/Manfred-Weber-Haelfte-der-EU-Kommission-mit-Frauen-besetzen.html

Just spoken to a German acquaintance who works for a medical research company over there. They have up to now worked with a lot of UK companies due to the European Medicine Agency being located in the UK (has now moved out). She is working overtime because they've now been instructed by the governing body to assume a no deal Brexit on 29th March. They run medical trials in which the terminally ill take part as a last chance of a cure / life extension. She says that some UK companies have moved to Ireland and elsewhere, and they can continue with the trials. But others (eg too small to make the move) simply have to be cut out of the work. If the trial has a while to run, they are contracting with another EU company to take over the work. If the trial has only a few months to run, it is being terminated. This means some very difficult conversations with the terminally ill patients.

Because McDonnell and Corbyn, advised by Milne, really, really want Brexit to happen ASAP
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/10/brexit-john-mcdonnell-says-labour-must-focus-on-defeating-theresa-may-deal

Disaster capitalists on one side
Disaster Stalinists on the other

The Kyle amendment isn't being voted for on Tuesday now, annoyingly.

There's so much bloody pissing about going on. I'm beginning to come to the conclusion that we will crash out thanks to the fuckwit MPs we have, of all parties.

I read somewhere that the Kyle amendment is being delayed until it after no deal has been voted down and it’s the only way to get the WA through.

Brexit: Labour amendment supporting second referendum put on hold

Kyle-Wilson amendment calling for a 2nd ref is likely to be pulled at the request of PV supporters. incl Alistair Campbell
Labour putting politics first ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/labour-amendment-supporting-second-referendum-put-on-hold

Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson had been pushing an amendment that would allow May’s Brexit deal to pass through the Commons on condition that its approval was subject to a second referendum.

They believed their offer could be attractive to some Conservatives because it would at least allow the Brexit deal to pass through parliament,
thus ending what could otherwise be months and months of political wrangling.

“I hope they will not push their amendment to a vote on Tuesday,” Campbell wrote. “

I think the public needs to see very clearly that even though the ticking clock may have reduced the majority against Mrs May’s deal from the stratospheric level 230 of January,
it continues to lack the parliamentary support needed to go through.”

Kyle indicated he was minded to follow Campbell’s advice without being too precise about the timetable he would follow.
“Our compromise deal will be pushed when we judge other options have been exhausted
and MPs are ready for compromise and a creative way out of this mess,”

Any Labour amendment needs to get some Tory support, or it has no chance

If Labour insist on only putting forward amendments that follow their party policy, we will have No Deal

News from Nick Boles. Let's hope it's not too little too late

The cross-party group of MPs supporting Common Market 2.0 will next week launch the Future Relationship Working Group with the objective of identifying the changes in the Political Declaration required to deliver Common Market 2.0
We are grateful to Professor Sir Alan Dashwood QC and @GeorgePeretzQC for agreeing to contribute their unrivalled expertise in EU and Efta law to this crucial exercise. Further details will be announced later this week.
If the PM loses the meaningful vote on Tuesday and MPs mandate the government to seek a short extension to Article 50, we plan to lay an amendment proposing a Common Market 2.0 Brexit compromise by 18th March
MPs need to show the EU that an extension has a purpose, that we are not just kicking the can down the road like the PM. Common Market 2.0 is the only Brexit compromise that can win a Commons majority and be agreed with the EU in time exit at the end of June

So the logic behind delaying Kyle is that Labour wants TM to see that the WA won't pass without their support, so she'll have to give them (a PV on remain vs WA) what they want so she gets what she wants (the WA passed). Or am I reading the tactics wrong?

Am I right in thinking the vote results are likely to be:

WA - not passed
No deal - vote shows majority of the HoC don't want to crash out
Extension - majority show they do want this?

Then at some point after these Kyle is put to the vote? But when?! It's almost bloody B-Day!

No Deal Brexit is 2 weeks on Friday

if none of these "cunning plans" pan out

Accidental Brexit by Baldric

Good, short article about the reality of what Karen Bradley was casually dismissing and maybe intending to politically interfere with in order to boost her party's buddies, the DUP. Most people have heard of Bloody Sunday, but not the Ballymurphy Massacre.

Harrowing evidence
While she was speaking, an inquest in Belfast was hearing from a man who said he had spent the last 48 years trying to forget what he had seen on the day he was shot as a nine-year-old child by a British soldier during what has become known as the Ballymurphy Massacre.
The Butler brothers were shot at as they tried to run away across a field. They saw soldiers flinging injured people and bodies into the back of a Saracen. One teenager was crying.
“One of the soldiers pulled out a gun and said F*k up, you c*t and shot him once or twice towards the chest. There was no sound from him after that,” Edward Butler said in evidence.
Relatives of Joan Connolly who had come out of her house to search for her daughters, sobbed as they heard harrowing evidence of her final moments after she was shot in the face. Those soldiers were from the Parachute Regiment. Had the regiment been disciplined in any way for its actions that day, its soldiers might not have felt free to go on a similar rampage in Derry six months later – on what will henceforth be known not as Bloody but as Dignified and Appropriate Sunday.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/tories-have-abandoned-pretence-of-impartiality-on-north-1.3819276

Which is also most peoples pay day...