Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

is it ok just to scream revoke at the fuckwits in 'govt'? I mean, I know it is, and I know they wont do it, but for FFS why on earth are we doing this?? I get more doom and gloom by the day.

You know....

I really think this country has gone a bit mad.

Or at least has a personality disorder of some sort.

Narcissism? Over inflated ego? Delusions of grandeur?

Maybe brexshit needs to happen. Maybe the fallout will cure the leavers mad buggers?

TiP The total time from bringing the case until October illustrates this part at least of the civil courts isn't functioning adequately,

with consequent delay & stress for you and 1000s like you.

To be fair, delusions of grandeur are not unique to this country. I've heard that a lot about my country of origin (they're as bad as each other in that respect). It's just really unfortunate to let them completely take over.

Look for a massive amount of dirt aimed at Jeremy Corbyn in the next few days and weeks as the Tories try to stave off a GE.
^
Also some sort of false flag paramilitary operation in NI designed to create Unionist militancy at the polling booth. I imagine on the Republican side there are massive efforts to rein in extreme elements and to maintain discipline^

I agree. Bottom line for TM is party before country. I just hope for the people to on all sides of NI hold their nerve and avoid rising to any deliberate provocations. ^
^

I'm sorting out the 23rd
and trying to persuade various ultra rich Londoners to come along
how do we make them realise that its not about a 2nd vote
its not about any vote
its about saying don't fuck our kids future
all else is secondary
please get your ultra rich friends to look out for their kids too
and DO NOT
rely on another vote

Saturday newspapers have tended to avoid Brexit on the front page in recent months.

But there's a few tomorrow covering it. Which I think reflects the growing sense of urgency.

A leaver on my FB has been prattling on about how Switzerland has no hard borders. Mmmm, they are in Schengen.

So why isn't Ireland in Schengen?

Because we (the UK) are obsessive about borders and always have been and Ireland has always been keen not to rock the boat about the border. So they stick with the common travel area in order to preserve the GFA.

What if the whole of the isle of Ireland was in Schengen?
These ideas have been discussed long before Brexit was even a twinkle in Cammeron's eye
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/mar/04/immigration-eu

Or UK out of EU but in Schengen? Like Switzerland

www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2011/essay_schengen_july11-144.pdf

I'm having alternative thoughts, all inspired by a leaver who did no research

3 days to go and not one person knows how to get out of this mess.
I went round my dds for tea yesterday and whilst eating we heard this huge bang and the whole house shook. My dog was shaking dd ran outside and a car had embedded itself into the front of next door! Its a very narrow street, cars parked both sides but on the pavements, you can only come down the road very very slowly but this car had obviously come down at speed. Woman trapped in car dd phoned ambulance and police and along with other neighbours went to drivers aide. ( neighbour was out) it took 59 minutes for ambulance to arrive, no police at all. Then fire engine was called which could not get down the road because of parked cars which could not move because ambulance was blocking other end of road. 5 hours later I was able to go home. Driver was in shock and was trapped in car hence fire brigade. It sounds exactly like this brexit shit. Going full pelt into it a car crash waiting and end up trapped with no way to turn. ( thankfully only minor injuries for driver but a sobbing neighbour whose not sure if her house is going to fall down)

Sos what a night!

Harry Cole@mrharrycole
Brandon Lewis warns this is going to wire talks will 'continue over the weekend and next few days.'

No shit.

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
Excl: Jeremy Hunt steps up leadership bid with secret breakfasts with Cabinet ministers - now being seen by Tory MPs as frontrunner to replace May

www.thesun.co.uk/news/8595553/jeremy-hunt-theresa-may-secret-breakfast-meetings-pm/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
CEREAL PLOTTER Jeremy Hunt holding secret breakfast meetings with ministers as he bids to become PM
Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt is holding meetings to woo MPs to back him to replace Prime Minister Theresa May

Home Secretary Sajid Javid is also trying to turbo-charge his long-running tilt at No10 by hosting rival breakfasts in Westminster restaurants.

But the 52 year-old Foreign Office chief is now seen by most Conservative MPs as having the best chance of stealing the crown because of Mr Javid’s troubles over knife crime and illegal migrants in the Channel.

One senior Tory figure who Mr Hunt has tried to woo dubbed his pitch “clever” as it alters “depending on who he is talking to”.

The Cabinet source added: “He tells Remainers he wants to achieve compromise.

“But when he courts the Brexiteers, he gives them a very clear narrative that he is only person who can deliver Brexit because of his reach across the party.”

Good to see they are focused on the problems of the next couple of weeks.

I do note something here though. There is no sense that there will be no deal. May isn't going anywhere before 29th March. That means that 'delivering Brexit' refers to after that date - which either means through passing the WA or an extension.

I don't know whether that reassures me in saying no deal isn't a possible outcome or terrifies me in the sense that its genuinely not recognised by MPs as a very real possible outcome.

Wow Sos what a day!

Saw this on Sky News and wondered if she was "one of us" - my stockpile also has the Nido milk, scottish oats and pasta . Ah the joys of
Brexit stockpiling!

Surely even Tories know Hunt would be a disaster after his NHS shambles? The clear link between him and amazing effect of the Brexiteers red bus for funding of it, for starters?

George Court @ courty1793
Kearney: Aren't you risking a softer Brexit or no brexit at all?
Francois: No because the Withdrawal Agreement as its drafted means we do not leave the EU
Kearney: Ok Mark Francois, we'll leave it there

What? The WA DOES mean leaving the EU yet Francois' claim went unchallenged

I mean a disaster as in not popular with the general public.
Although I say that as I struggle to make sense of how people vote in general, so what do I know!

But the 52 year-old Foreign Office chief is now seen by most Conservative MPs as having the best chance of stealing the crown because of Mr Javid’s troubles over knife crime and illegal migrants in the Channel.

And let's be blunt, Javid is of Furrin extraction and a Muslim, which is a big no no for the Islamaphobic Tory party. Let's not let the party avoid being tarred with the racist tag which is due as much to them as it is to the Labour party.

www.rte.ie/amp/1035261/?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit: Cox, Barnier and the blame game begins
Tony Connelly

In other words, Cox wanted to inject a concept that would give the UK the ability to appeal to the arbitration panel – and not the European Court of Justice – in the hope that it would rule that the trade negotiations were stuck, that the UK had acted with "reasonableness" and was therefore entitled to walk away from the backstop.

"The point is that Cox doesn’t want the ECJ involved in the adjudication on whether or not we’ve reached agreement," says the official.

"That’s why he’s trying to look at ‘reasonableness’, because that would not affect EU law."

The move took the EU by surprise

"It was a frontal British effort to try to create an exit from the backstop through this notion of manipulating arbitration," says one EU diplomat.

And

Cox had a further eye-catching suggestion.

This was that the backstop was potentially in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) because under the backstop, the citizens of Northern Ireland would be subject to EU single market rules yet not represented in the making of those rules.

It is understood Cox glancingly referred to Article 3 of the protocol to the ECHR which commits signatories to ensuring "the free expression of the opinion of the people in the choice of the legislature".

To EU officials this took the backstop into entirely different terrain.

"This is about attacking the legality of the backstop, the same backstop which has been negotiated by Her Majesty’s best team of lawyers," says one official.

"That didn’t really help the dynamics."

None of the concerns about representing the people of Northern Ireland had been raised in Cox’s initial legal advice back in November.

Wow. Just wow.

The whole article is a must read.

It does not bode well.

Did it occur to Cox that a majority in NI voted to Remain, and by a greater margin than 4% before a Leaver comes on to tell me that not everyone in NI voted Remain.

London was now looking for a way to peel away from the logic of the backstop through the novel use of the arbitration process.

If they are doing this to an international peace treaty, who in the world expects them to uphold our own laws once we are out and not 'peel away' at them the minute they get a chance?

Cox suggesting "This was that the backstop was potentially in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) because under the backstop, the citizens of Northern Ireland would be subject to EU single market rules yet not represented in the making of those rules." still makes me (In that order)

Given that he was presenting that proposal on the same day that Hunt was telling the Scots that they would never not be given permission for a Section 30 notice for Indyref2 and that the SNP Holyrood Government should "concentrate on their days jobs health and education and stop being evil "

And given that the Scottish MPs were not allowed to speak at all in the very short debate that brought back devolved powers to Westminster as part of the Withdrawal Act

But on the plus side, his "legal argument" may well come back to bite him

@LonelyandTiredandLow goodness me what a hysterical, zombie apocalypse fruit cake that woman is! kidding. That's a really good article. She puts her thoughts across in a really calm, logical and sensible way. I hope people who read the article realise how sensible it is to prepare and do so. I'd say she's highly likely to be one of us.

I would love the EU to point out the irony that UK have admitted to breaking our Human Rights by not permitting a Peoples Vote/Indy Ref 2, etc. That would make headlines!

@red I've been seriously concerned for some time now that MPs arrogance & ignorance about the whole A50 process will cause an "accidental No Deal"

They - and most of the UK media - seem to think that No Deal can't happen unless they specifically choose to vote for it, or deliberately run out the time

The functioning of a "default" event seems as unknown to them as that of a "backstop"

Hence why I mentioned that on the very last 1-2 days, May could be advised by the UK sherpas to request the EU to "stop the clock"

This is an old EU trick - for internal matters - that can be used when a deadline has almost been reached on an important matter.
It has the advantage of quicker approval than an extension, since it is decided by the EU Commision & heads of govt only.

i.e. no HoC involvement