Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

If it hadn't been for the very lucky - for them - situation of the DUP MPs being required for c&s,
the Irish Sea border would already be mainstream.

As it is, still very uncertain if May & the Cabinet would agree to the current suggestion, since the DUP can & would bring down the govt

Backing a militant-style Brexit was a DUP mistake but an entirely predictable one, because they always favour an extreme position, always the in-your-face approach, and non-negotiation is their stance in every situation.

They could have backed a soft Brexit (SM/CU) and the entire Brexit could have been done and dusted a long time ago.

Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse

UK took undisclosed reprisal measures against Russia for Salisbury attack, beyond expulsion of GRU, says National Security Adviser Mark Sedwill.

“If you read your Sun Tzu, find the areas where they are weak and you are strong, and choose those," he said.

< interesting I wonder what measures, given that the EU already has economic sanctions against them.
I'm having problems atm seeing where the UK is strong, but Russia does have several weak points >

Any kind of Brexit was a risk for the DUP, but I think they supported it mainly because:

1. Hard right Tory & US influence - and they are an authoritarian party with many far right conenction

2. intending to smash the GFA, to avoid Irish reunification when demographics change sufficiently.
   I gather from their online suporters that they want to keep dividing NI into smaller & smaller Protestant chunks, cutting off the Catholic bits to join the RoI
   Won't be allowed )

TiP no, my colleague, a lawyer, wouldn't accept that no deal was the default option. My understanding from all I have read is that if no deal is agreed and no extension is in place, and we don't revoke, no deal will happen by default as set out in Art 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

He seemed to be thinking the EUWA could be amended to avoid no deal, when all I think can be done is for an alternative date to be proposed if there is maj support.

I was annoyed I failed to defend my position more robustly, but am always mindful of keeping one's mine shut and being thought a fool, rather than opening it and removing all doubt...

No Deal is the default option
It happens unless the UK specifically chooses another option

I wish too that people would not take for granted that the EU would support an extension with the length & purpose (if any) that the UK requests

The EU Commission probably would,
but any of the 27 heads of govt can veto, or set conditions which would be impossible for the UK to accept.

BigChoc, they have always felt massively insecure all the same, wrt how far Westminster would back them and whether they would eventually be thrown under the bus.

They must have been rubbing their hands together in glee as the GE results became clear because on election night eve they were a small regional party with no influence, let alone power, to control the destiny of NI.

Right now the threat to the DUP is among the voters of NI, but only a GE would make it clear how much of a threat a shift of allegiance among Unionist voters would be. Their strategy must be to avoid a GE.

TM can actually force them to accept any proposal she chooses to put to them but I don't think she herself can accept the de facto Irish Sea border, on an emotional level. Either that or she is incredibly dim and lacking in political astuteness (rational stupidity).

Otoh, for TM, there is always the threat of the ERG bringing their own government down, but is that a real threat? They would be playing Russian roulette with 5/6 chambers loaded, not just one.

Look for a massive amount of dirt aimed at Jeremy Corbyn in the next few days and weeks as the Tories try to stave off a GE.

Also some sort of false flag paramilitary operation in NI designed to create Unionist militancy at the polling booth. I imagine on the Republican side there are massive efforts to rein in extreme elements and to maintain discipline.

Channel 4 news doing a special report now on Aaron Banks and Labour Leave.

Grinchly I'm not sure what your lawyer friend is getting at:

Any alternative - i.e. later - date for Brexit would require an extension of the A50 2-year period
regardless of whether this later date is specified in the WA or requested separately

Whatever method chosen to request this, it still requires unanimous consent from the EU members and from the UK

A50 is an article of the Lisbon treaty and certainly would not be amended for Brexit:
it would take years of discussion and require unanimous agreement again, being a treaty change.

An alternative to an extension is the EU trick of "stopping the clock", e.g. at 1.99 years

That would also not be done without unanimous agreement,
but it would be agreed at heads of govt level, i.e. the HoC don't have to approve it
So May could request this in literally the final few hours

Grinchley is he a conveyancer by any chance? If you explain triggering A50 was exchanging and setting the completion date at 29th March, he might understand a bit better?

Grinchley is he a conveyancer by any chance? If you explain triggering A50 was exchanging and setting the completion date at 29th March, he might understand a bit better?

Snigger.

Being a solicitor does not make you immune to Brexit Batshittery.

There are conveyancing no dealers out there.

What a vile man Banks is (not that I was unsure but you know, limits?) Using Jo Cox's murder to enhance and push leave advertising despite agreeing a haitus .

Immediately after the MP’s killing, politicians on both sides of the EU referendum debate agreed to the suspension, and remain and leave campaigners cancelled speeches and events.

However Channel 4 News said it had seen email sent the morning after Cox’s murder from Banks, Leave.EU’s key financial backer, to his assistant Liz Bilney, the campaign group’s chief executive, that read: “Keep pumping the McKenna video” and “up the Spend A”.

The campaign had enlisted the TV hypnotist Paul McKenna to advise on its broadcasts. Bilney replied to Banks: “Yes that’s starting to get traction now and with paid advertising and no active campaigning could get a lot of take up today.” Banks responded: “Exactly – press it harder.”

Dom Raab is a lawyer, and he failed to realise the importance of the Dover Calais transport route. His grasp of Brexit legal detail may be similarly poor.

Raab is one of a number of ERGers with a law degree.

No deal does represent a Brexit opportunity for solicitors. Lawyers will not lose out.

Or Pixies as I think a poster on another thread likes to call them Red

Immediately after the MP’s killing, politicians on both sides of the EU referendum debate agreed to the suspension, and remain and leave campaigners cancelled speeches and events.

This isn't news. We knew at the time that campaigning continued on FB. And I thought Bank had more or less admitted this before?

I think they admitted it continued but not deliberately in order to exploit the death and subsequent lack of 'opposition'.

I guess pressure from the electorate in NI might persuade the DUP to accept the Irish Sea order, but I'll be surprised if they and the right wing of the Tory party buy it. For them it's always been a step too far along the road to reunification. Which of course is the obvious and logical thing to go for - and Brexit may well make it much more palatable to the Unionist community.

Personally, I'd be happy to see the border moved to the River Severn! I just regret that my Irish forebears are four generations back, rather than two.

The DUP won't buy a border in the sea. Sadly.

Didn't May say during the WA negotiations last year that no British Prime Minister could ever agree to a border in the Irish Sea (i.e. separating internal parts of the UK)? Her argument was that this was tantamount to splitting up the UK (as the SNP were also saying, as NI industry would be getting preferential treatment. Wasn't that why she -demanded- begged them to make it a UK-wide provision?

She's back to disagreeing with herself, it seems.

Or did I just dream all this?

Ah, two dashes gives you strikethrough. My bad, again.

Nigel Dodds (DUP leader in HoC):

"This is an attempt to get ahead of a possible blame game and appear positive
when in reality it is going backwards to something rejected a year ago."

BigChoc I agree wrt the aims of the DUP in supporting Brexit.

They have always hated the GFA.

There is a bottom line for the DUP, and there always has been.

They have always reserved their fallback position of outright military insurrection (see paramilitary activities during last year's marching season).

My legal case comes to a head in October.
Barristers I grudgingly respect as their speed of thought is outstanding

Solicitors : if you give them a shit outline case
they will come up with a shit final case

my opponents solicitors are clearly getting hacked off with the lies they are being told
tee ferkin hee

and my case is scheduled so hopefully should not be affected by other backlogs