Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

This may sound like no change from the autumn. But there is a change. EU 27 is saying GB - though not Northern Ireland - can exit customs union in 2020.

It’s interesting because it’s what I always said would happen as a result of the WA. The existing terms allow for the U.K. to exit leaving NI in the backstop with the EU agreement, if years of wrangling produce no deal.

With this change the EU is allowing that to happen unilaterally and sooner.

It’s almost as if the EU knew that’s what the Tories wanted all along

Will it be enough for the ERG - I bloody hope not. And I hope we can count on DUP intransigence.

It does sound promising...,
While I am here, does anyone have a great cast iron source explaining default option is no deal?

Colleagues at work convinced this can be avoided thru last minute primary legislation

Funny how this announcement comes the day after Karen Bradley reminds everyone how appallingly ignorant English politicians are about NI ...

Unless there is primary legislation- which requires majority support in Parliament, the default position is no Deal. Triggering Article 50 with Parliamentary support set the default.

I was grumbling to myself about the rain and galeforce winds here
but at least it's been 8-14 C and forecast to stay in that range for the next 2 weeks

Sympathy for any Westministender facing snow as well as Brexit

If Grayling performs to his usual standard re transport of essential food & meds,
it could be the Brexiters version of the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse 😭

I know Bellini, just need to find a citation.

^I was grumbling to myself about the rain and galeforce winds here
but at least it's been 8-14 C and forecast to stay in that range for the next 2 weeks^

Don't mind it cold so much. Don't really mind rain too much. It's the wind that makes things so miserable ...

Grinchly
Your colleague is correct
IF they can slam a deal through the HOC and the HOL and Brenda before 29th march, that becomes the deal
on condition it matches line by line what the EU has agreed, or agrees to stay in the CU or is revoke
any other option = No Deal

NB a version of Brexit which agrees to staying in the Single Market would go through the EU on the nod.

Looking at the WA:

Returning to the NI-only backstop is something that can be agreed mutually - it's not something either the Uk or the EU can choose on their own at any time

However, if they mutually agree before Brexit .... that would be legal

It would also lose DUP support
I wonder if the DUP would carry out their threat of bringing down the govt - Corbyn would of course call a vote of NC immediately they gave him the nod

DGR
My previous post was written referring the EU based EU industry not the UK.
The UK is practically 'dead' to me now since despite being a UK citizen the government is declaring me a citizen of nowhere and turned their back on me the minute I got a ferry over the channel. Why should I feel any allegiance to such shits?

DGRosetti
DH and I got hailed on while swimming yesterday. Painful.

Why should I feel any allegiance to such shits?

You sound like my DF ...

This is the relevant section of the WA about reverting to an NI backstop - the key is that both sides must agree to it

I wonder if the DUP would carry out their threat of bringing down the govt

They would. These are not people you mess with.

I wonder if the DUP would carry out their threat of bringing down the govt

I’d love it if they would, but no.

Found something suitable now thanks Bellini.

And thanks Big Choc !

I wonder if the DUP would carry out their threat of bringing down the govt - Corbyn would of course call a vote of NC immediately they gave him the nod

Yes, the DUP and Corbyn would both do that. Then what? Those Tory MPs who voted against May and then all the MPs who overwhelmingly rejected her WA deal, would, like the sheep they are, go through the lobby in support of the Government.

Up until the January WA vote, a request for an extension would almost certainly have been granted by the EU
They were massively pissed though, that May was whipping against a WA she'd agreed to.

At this stage, there is considerable danger of at least one member state vetoing an extension that doesn't have a good reason

German manufacturing has been warning Merkel it would add to the costs of those who were prudent enough to plan for No Deal
Always a good argument here - don't penalise the prudent & diligent

This is because those businesses that have prepped for No Deal have done so for 29 March

• at considerable expense

An extension increases the expense

e.g. car firms - including in the UK ! - that have planned shutdowns for maintenance to coincide with the start of Brexit can't just move them so easily:
they will have signed contracts for suppliers to do the maintenance
workers will have booked holidays
etc

newsthump.com/2019/03/07/enjoyed-robust-discussions-now-officially-a-synonym-for-told-to-fuck-off-says-oed/?fbclid=IwAR1_ET4lr5MlpURzZ4TfgcH6Yhb2Ojt-swygQHL_pSi3d_f_FsfNuLsMgMs
A little light entertainment from Newsthump:
The Brexit lexicon has once again impacted the English language as the Oxford English Dictionary decreed that the term ‘had robust discussions’ would now be included in its latest edition as meaning the same as piss off, go away, jog on or go choke on a badger’s cock.

As the UK negotiating team in Brussels keeps reporting that the EU’s categorical refusal to renegotiate is just part of a process, the gatekeepers of the English language have explained that every last person in the world knew they had been told to ram their demands up their arse until it made them squeal.

Simone Williams, Professor of Linguistics at the University of Croydon, explained that the inclusion was interesting but not unexpected.

She went on, “One of the fascinating things about the English language is the speed of its evolution. Words get redefined all the time. Nice once meant ignorant. Awful and awesome used to be the same thing. The only criteria for a definition is how the majority of speakers understand the term. So when Theresa May says she has had frank discussions, we all know Michel Barnier told her to skip along and go fuck herself.”

Professor Williams also explained that the Brexit process had been affecting the English language for a while now.

“The whole Brexit process has switched the definition of many terms. Such as ‘red bus’ for ‘blatant lie’. Or how 'elite' now means someone that makes you feel acutely aware of your own ignorance.

“More recently the name Grayling has become a verb to describe taking a simple task and turning it into a catastrophe of biblical proportions while still smiling inanely as if you’re the dog’s bollocks.”

Thank you BCF
My argument is that 'Brussels' is political, and the individual countries and their manufacturing / industry are practical and there is only a certain amount of divergence that can happen before EU pips squeek.

If Labour win an NC vote, Corbyn could ask the DUP if they would give c&s to Labour, to negotiate a CU in the PD

If not, within 14 days, Parliament would be dissolved for 5 weeks while a GE campaign goes on

BigChoc
German manufacturing has been warning Merkel it would add to the costs of those who were prudent enough to plan for No Deal
Always a good argument here - don't penalise the prudent & diligent

And I would add 'don't take a patient and diligent ally for granted just because they have gone along with your policy up to now'.

I think you are right that German manufacturing is losing patience fast. Manufacturing has already absorbed a hit from sanctions against Russia and I think there is a limit to how far it can and will bend in service of political ends in Berlin. There comes a point where too much money is at stake.

I suspect the UK will be asked to seriously consider the Irish Sea border as the cost of leaving the EU with some sort of trade deal possible.

Can the DUP be unceremoniously dumped? Could TM rely on renegade Labour MPs and others to overcome the vote deficit? Would the DUP abstain or vote against any proposal to set up NI as a special economic area?

Is political feeling among Unionists in NI strong enough to make them do an about turn - they are not impervious to pressure from the farmers of Fermanagh and Tyrone who are looking utter disaster in the face. Unionist voters have options, from the likely to the unthinkable, and if they wanted to give the DUP a massive kick in the pants they could.

• I know the Irish Sea border has always been a possibility but up to now I think TM and the Tories have been playing games with NI/Ireland in the British version of cute hoorism. The shit is fast approaching the fan now, and it really should be obvious that it's time to put the game playing aside,

Wow, the DUP made a massive mistake backing Brexit
Even for them, a total brainfart
The risk of an Irish Sea border, to enable GB deals, was always there