Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

One of the reasons why I am so convinced that an extension is unlikely is that if it were offered, it would simply lead to the UK arguing over that too. It's not long enough for a start. And then as it slips through the egg-timer ... What ? We still have to agree a deal ?!?!?!

Remember nothing is good enough for the UK. Not being in the EU, and certainly not being out of it.

Bear in mind that all over the EU the past few weeks haven't gone to waste on frothing in the press and interviewing each other over a background cacophony of navel-gazing politics.

Has anyone seen this tweet by Faisal Islam?

"New Commission offer is

• unilateral exit from option for Single Customs Territory for UK but backstop provision (ie EUCU) will still apply to NI

• commit to ALternative Arrangements

• redouble efforts during transition, & more regular reviews etc to accommodate NI concerns "

- unilateral exit from option for Single Customs Territory for UK but backstop provision (ie EUCU) will still apply to NI

That's not DUP complaint, is it ?

In other words, the UK can leave the Single Customs Territory if it really wants to but NI would remain

Nope. DUP will hate it.

Isn't that, near enough, the original backstop before TM decided to negotiate and agree a UK wide backstop, which was to get round DUP objection to the 'Irish Sea Border'.

Looks like the government managed to cock up some no-deal legislation too, just for the lolz.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47490027

A no-deal Brexit threatens billions of pounds of chemical imports, the head of the Chemical Industries Association, Stephen Elliott, has warned.

He says secondary legislation, needed to copy EU regulations into UK law, contains "significant gaps".

The loophole could halt UK imports of chemicals by EU-registered countries from countries outside the EU, he says.

"Put simply, the drugs don't work, the cars don't run and the planes don't fly without chemicals and chemistry."

Unless the law is changed, he says, the import of "billions of pounds worth of chemicals," used across UK manufacturing, would have to come to a sudden halt if the UK left the EU with no deal on 29 March.

(contd)

doesn't really give you much faith in Geoffrey Cox, does it (if you had any before, that is ....)

Loletta - wasn't that what the EU wanted in the first place, and TM insisted that it should apply to the whole of the UK?

This puts the hard border in the Irish Sea, so the DUP have to decide whether they are wholly part of the UK with no Irish Sea border, or whether they are sometimes different from the rest of the UK without same sex marriage and abortion rights.

Michel Barnier's proposal:

👇 I briefed EU27 Ambassadors and EP today on the ongoing talks with #UK. Following the EU-UK statement of 20 Feb, the EU has proposed to the UK a legally binding interpretation of the #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Most importantly:
2/5 The arbitration panel can already, under Article 178 WA, give UK the right to a proportionate suspension of its obligations under the backstop, as a last resort, if EU breaches its best endeavours/good faith obligations to negotiate alternative solutions.
3/5 EU ready to give legal force to all commitments from January letter of @eucopresident and @JunckerEU through joint interpretative statement. europa.eu/!Kj44wR This will render best endeavour/good faith obligations even more actionable by an arbitration panel.
4/5 EU commits to give UK the option to exit the Single Customs Territory unilaterally, while the other elements of the backstop must be maintained to avoid a hard border. UK will not be forced into customs union against its will.
5/5 The EU will continue working intensively over the coming days to ensure that the UK leaves the EU with an agreement.

For me another argument that the EU will not allow a significant extension without concrete assurances is that at the moment the EU negotiations are at political level. They, through the individual governments nave put the mandate to negotiate with the UK together on a plan that (reluctantly) respective industries can cope with. If the UK does not decide and state this on 29th March then what is a political decision becomes an existential problem for some very big industries and the mood music will change rapidly. There will have been some severe teeth gritting to get the WA to what it is and the initial promise was a 29March 'decision date'. There will be a point where the practical business decisions start to override the political intent. To suggest that Airbus EU and other big manufacturers will allow the UK to screw them over is getting very silly.

compliant, not complaint

(MNHQ, the 1990s called and want their forum software back ...)

Is the EU proposal, at this point, the ladder the ERG might climb down to support the WA? How wedded are they to the DUP?

Yes I believe that was the original backstop idea

Nick Gutteridge:

Barnier's offer is not insignificant. It makes clear UK has a way out of backstop if EU breaches good faith obligation. In doing so he's making UK's case 'even more actionable by arbitration panel'. But little confidence here anyone in SW1 will bother reading it before rejecting.

To suggest that Airbus EU and other big manufacturers will allow the UK to screw them over is getting very silly.

The message has been crystal clear for ages. Brexit is all about saving the Tory party. Nothing else - NI, cancer medicine, flights, industry - nothing else trumps that or can be allowed to. If UK industry is unhappy at that, they need to bear in mind it's their participation in the demonisation of Corbyn which has led - in part - to that.

For all the whining, a lot of industry quietly chose Tory over Labour and this is their reward. All of us are collateral damage to that.

Or is that too naive ?

Tony Connelly;
The arbitration panel remains the same and remains under the same obligations under the Governance part of the WA. ie, if there is EU competence, it needs a legally binding opinion from the ECJ.
In other words, if the EU doesn't fulfill its best endeavours obligation then the UK can seek arbitration. This is spelled out in the Tusk Juncker letter - now Barnier is saying this can be converted into a binding Joint Interpretative Statement
If the EU doesn't engage in alternatives to the backstop, that is actionable through panel. If it's about the EU rejecting alternative arrangements because it doesn't protect the single market then the panel would have to seek binding opinion from the ECJ.
Barnier's offer is essentially defensive in nature and a response to the blame game from the UK side. Also, May's speech this afternoon has gone down badly. Sources suggest Barnier's position was supported by member states when he briefed EU ambassadors this afternoon.
"The mood has been pretty dark. People had open minds but asking themselves if we were in for a simple statement that the talks had failed, or wd Barnier say we're making progress, or, we'll have to keep working on it, but within the mandate [ie, not reopening the WA]
Not sure how this changes this - obviously a big challenge for the DUP since the Single Customs Territory was designed by the UK to keep them on board, as it removed the need for a customs border on the Irish Sea.
Am told there are no immediate plans for further talks, but that could change. All eyes still on Monday morning for a possible deal. But....

Is the EU proposal, at this point, the ladder the ERG might climb down to support the WA? How wedded are they to the DUP?

As things stand, the parliamentary maths is that May needs every single vote. Labour are opposed to the WA (or my MP is). So swapping the DUP for the ERG won't achieve a win - just a smaller loss.

If you are pinning your hopes on that

Not pinning my hopes on anything. Objectively analysing the signals from the EU.

The unholy mess in the U.K. is a pia for the EU but not as much as No Deal. If we go down with No Deal it won’t be because the EU refused an extension. They want to be, above all, humane, and moreover they don’t need the shitstorm of No Deal if they can avoid it.

Objectively analysing the signals from the EU.

As was I

Robert Peston:

This may sound like no change from the autumn. But there is a change. EU 27 is saying GB - though not Northern Ireland - can exit customs union in 2020. As I said, this will not win over DUP MPs or many Tory Brexiter and Remainy MPs

Border in the North Sea would be popular throughout Ireland North and South
would be relatively simple to operate
would avoid No Deal
and would deeply piss of the DUP and the ERG
Whats not to like

As was I

Not convinced. If No Deal comes it will be from the U.K. not from the EU refusing to delay as I said.

In toto the EU seem to be preparing themselves for No Deal but ready to give an extension.

and would deeply piss of the DUP and the ERG

I'm already loving it

Border in the Irish Sea would sort this shit out. DUP can fuck off. Make NI a special economic area.
Which is what I have said for yonks.

TM would probably have gone along with you bellinisurge, if she hadn't gone and botched her election and needed the DUP for support.