Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Prettybird
You have obviously worked out who I am as that is a very accurate description
And yes, I know my rights.
Especially after the time I was locked up by UKBA as a teenager. Even thinking about that room still makes me shiver.
On the other hand I have never been on a protest march - because I knew I could be deported for it - even with British kids.

The hostile environment is a primary driver of Brexit IMHO
It made all forriners into OTHER
it stigmatised anybody who looked or sounded different
it made people feel threatened
and it was TM's baby.
SHE is responsible for the omnishambles clusterfuck we find ourselves in.

I think the WA will be voted down, then No Deal, and extension voted for, then squabbling and panic will break out over securing the extension, its length, and which particular means to avoid No Deal.

If WA is voted down, that’s the end for May, whether she voluntarily steps down (unlikely with Philip egging her on) or pressured into it. She might limp on mortally wounded until she resigns on ‘health’ grounds.

I think we’re going towards Parliament taking over the whole process, in which case I fear a ‘moderates’ deal on soft Brexit.

Some of the people who voted in the referendum did so for the first time in years. Why should they ever bother doing so again if their decision were over-turned without ever being implemented?

At the risk of it not coming out the way it's intended, that wouldn't really be a great loss to "democracy" would it ? Because otherwise the take-home message is not to educate yourself on world affairs and political matters, as your wishes will be trampled over by once--in-a-lifetime "voters".

It's a little like the sensation some folk have when it seems that you get a better life if you whack someone over the head and nick their pension as opposed to learning at school, doing exams, getting a job, paying taxes.

Good job Theresa Mays number one priority was to try and reconcile the country. Things could have been very different if she'd set out to widen the divide and pour vinegar into it.

Some of the people who voted in the referendum did so for the first time in years. Why should they ever bother doing so again if their decision were over-turned without ever being implemented?

Given that they had the chance to vote again the following year in a GE and couldn't be bothered, why is this a convincing argument?
Why is she not bothered about the 16 million's faith in democracy - we have been told to get stuffed.

I think the WA will be voted down, then No Deal, and extension voted for, then squabbling and panic will break out over securing the extension, its length, and which particular means to avoid No Deal.

There will be no extension unless something fundamental changes. Again, no one in Westminster listening.

What's the story with Will Self and Mark Francois ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47497183/brexit-will-self-and-mark-francois-on-racists-and-anti-semites

Call me old fashioned. Call me someone who tries to be considerate, but the drive for the BBC to move all news to the much cheaper video clip format is really starting to get on my wick.

I'm dreading the vote(s) next week. Not sure my blood pressure can take it. We are fucked, we just won't know how badly.

Same here. All the options are terrible.

There will be no extension unless something fundamental changes. Again, no one in Westminster listening.

The fundamental change being the WA voted down. No Deal voted down. And delay voted for.

Some of the people who voted in the referendum did so for the first time in years. Why should they ever bother doing so again if their decision were over-turned without ever being implemented?

What like an election.

If people only get out of bed for a vote once in a blue moon, chances are the result will have changed in the mean time.

Ans: vote more often. (And vote for something sensible when you do).

Agree with DG. Extension is unlikely. No one really wants it. I don't think there'd the numbers in the Hoc for an extension. No Deal much more likely imho

The fundamental change being the WA voted down. No Deal voted down. And delay voted for.

That's no change at all. The EU really, really, really have no interest in the internal sausage making of Westminster, except where it impacts them. They have already decided that the UK is clearly not going to pass the WA, and therefore will exit without a deal. Making any extension not only unproductive but counter productive. As the news reports of companies preferring a certain bad situation over an uncertain one have been intended to show.

If the WA gets passed, brilliant ! Trebles all round !!! Let's crack on with Brexit.

If it doesn't .... well, life's like that sometimes. It won't be for lack of EU effort.

The UK is behaving a little like parents at a child-free wedding who were told a year in advance it was to be child-free, and then still turn up with children. (Which happened when a friend of mine got married. It was his Mums sister, and they were turned away, have had form for being cheeky fuckers ...)

{The fundamental change being the WA voted down. No Deal voted down. And delay voted for.}
The HoC can vote that all guys wear pink tutus but they have to persuade Theresa to present the EU with a credible reason to grant an extension, and that ain't happening, and as the bickering is so public all the EU negotiating team know it is bollocks.

If there is No Deal, how soon do you think the car factories will announce that they are pulling out? The when might be easier - when they would need to retool for a new model.

DGR I was watching.

WS said (paraphrasing) that he thought that almost all, if not all, racists and anti-semites voted to leave the EU.

MF interpreted this as WS saying all 17m leave voters were racist and/or anti-semite and that WS should apologise.

WS said that he had not said all 17m were racist and/or anti-semites so no need to apologise. It was MF who had inferred that.

MF was very cross, then the staring moment.

I don't warm to WS generally but he was very measured throughout the programme, did not interrupt, unlike MF.

Happy international women's day all you westminstenders, with nod to those also wonderful men too in anticipation of November 19th

The problem with TM doing a reshuffle to bring younger people into government is her being able to find younger people willing to be in her government.

So we're not allowed a new ref because we might vote remain, which will upset the then proven minority of people who want to leave. So even Theresa knows she's lying when she invokes the will of the people.

The People's vote folks on FB are wasting shit tonnes of paper and postage trying to get MPs to vote down the WA
but they have no plan after that
they also seem certain they would win a second vote
(after running such a shit campaign in 2016 - its the same people at the top)

Doomed, we are all doomed

pollyannaperspective

Tx for that !

I have a lot of time for Will Self (His "Quantity Theory of Insanity" is one of the best postwar books there is that people haven't read). He has a great delivery and lots of anecdotes - sadly proof that sometimes the drugs do work .....

Well.

I'm eating sausage rolls and pretending the end is not bloody nigh!

The EU really, really, really have no interest in the internal sausage making of Westminster, except where it impacts them

They have a strong interest in avoiding No Deal.

As Tusk has said ‘delaying Brexit’ is the ‘rational’ choice, and generally EU officials agree exit needs to be postponed. The question is on what grounds and for how long and that’s when the squabbling starts.

One senior EU official said: “My base case is that she will be begging for an extension on March 12 or 13 and we will give it regardless of whether there is a serious plan,” said one senior EU figure handling Brexit.”

I don't think there'd the numbers in the Hoc for an extension.

Without being too blunt, it's got fuck all to do with parliament anymore. They had their chance, and blew it.

It's the EU that get to offer an extension. Which requires (a) it be requested and (b - as noted) that there is actually a point to it.

As things stand, there are only 2 things that would be considered significant enough to offer the extension: if the UK were to announce it was holding a PV, or if the UK were to announce a General Election before 29th March.

The reason I can be so certain is that is exactly what the EU itself has said. And because they really know how to do negotiations, I am going to go out on a limb and say that they have already agreed amongst themselves that is the case. Which would avoid there being any unseemly scuffles from countries less sympathetic to the UKs "plight".

I am guessing that even at this late stage, there's so much unknown about the minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour implications of no deal that the less bright politicians really haven't grasped the enormity of it yet. Another point about the danger of letting MPs think they are capable of negotiating.

LeClerc I refer you to my post of 17.02

(b - as noted) that there is actually a point to it.

The point would be to give more time to the rest of the EU to sort their own side out. Not because the Govt of the UK is continuing to arse around.

They have a strong interest in avoiding No Deal.

If you are pinning your hopes on that, its a leaver argument ....

Of course the EU doesn't want the UK to crash out with no deal. But that's a qualified desire which had strong conditions and a shelf life attached.

The qualification - quite logically - is that any deal cannot impinge the raison d'etre of the EU - the four pillars upon which is it built.

The shelf life expired when Theresa May demonstrated she was incapable of delivering a deal she had argued for.

There really is no grey area, no matter how hard you look.

By all means wish for an extension if you think it'll help. But don't look to the EU to pull a rabbit out of a hat just to save the UKs sorry arse.

Dh is off to B&Q tomorrow to get seeds and compost for a raised bed.

Not my suggestion!

If people like my dh are getting worried/making plans then public povs are changing.

It's just too late. Far too late.