Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Mine too bellini

Austerity caused Brexit but the cognitive dissonance is such that most leave voters believed the lies peddled by leave.eu.

Even now, after 2.5 years of them having "won" they are still playing the "betrayal by the elite" card.

People will see them for what they are...eventually.

If course, by then the UK will have been plundered by the like of Rees mogg, redwood and his mates and the union will be no more..

But! It's an ok price to pay for....um...what again, exactly???

"It was centrism that led to Brexit."

Bollocks
It was the hard right being funded, including military-type psyops & bots online, by billionaire oligarchs

The same people who are funding hard right populism in the USA and across Europe,
blaming centrists for what the hard right have done.

In Britain, they were enabled by all main UK parties having the most incompetent, ignorant set of politicans since probably the 18th century

Brexiters often attack centrists the hardest, saying they want a revolution to bring down what they call LibLabCon

• if you examine what they want to replace more moderate politics with, it is all about very authoritarian, xenophobic nationlism

Corbyn, to his shame, is pandering to that

Blair was - rightly - destroyed by his disgraceful Iraq warmongering

However, the reason why he was the only Labour leader ever to win 3 GEs, with huge majorities before his debacle, is that he didn't just appeal even to the softer left:
his policies wre both of the left and the centre

New Labour didn't fail because they were too centrist, but because their leader was a US poodle who lied us into war, helped create the regional quagmire and millions of refugees.

To make the full set Tories should try that shit on the Irish workers like my Mum invited to do the NHS work that no UK person would do.

Watch this space. The Common Travel Agreement is basically a gentleman's agreement, built on trust.
www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46178534

Now that the Brexiteers have figured out that Ireland is a separate country prepared to stand up for itself, they might turn their sights on this. I don't think Irish in the UK should feel complacent, especially if the Irish end up being blamed for a hard Brexit and dissident republicans start up again.

NI people who identify only as Irish are already finding out that this is not as respected by HMG as they thought

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47292347

^One case that has drawn attention before Brexit has even happened is that of Emma De Souza.

The Magherafelt woman found herself involved in a legal battle when an application for a residence card for her US-born husband was rejected.

The Home Office initially said no in December 2015, as it deemed she was British, despite the fact she has never had a British passport.

She told BBC News NI: "My Irish citizenship, my Irish identity is not being accepted by the department and the only way I can do that is to go through a renunciation process, so I'm trying to get them to accept the Good Friday Agreement, which they signed up to in the first place."

She challenged the decision and won, but the Home Office is appealing and the hearing has been put back until after the UK is due to leave the EU. She fears Brexit could make the outcome even more uncertain.^

New Centrist and moderate left leaders must move away from the US, which is ruled by the hard right, even without Trump.
Never again be poodles blindly following their master into bloody wars
They need to be more Europe-oriented, not less

Dear UK
Please just leave on 29 March as you have promised. The EU and the rest of the world have better and more important things to do other than hearing which type of biscuits the members of the UK cabinet and HoL would like with their afternoon cuppa.
It is blatantly clear that none of (the government) have a clue what to do and it is totally disrespectful to expect everyone else wait while you play tiddlywinks.

Pretybird, nice shoes.

I wonder if Mr Macron would lend me a tank so I can go to Westminster to move things along a bit?

I'm not convinced by polls since 2017 lonely...the first chart in this Wikipedia link quite startled me, even though I knew the outcome of the election! Yest the polls were getting it right near the end bu no wonder May (and the rest of the Conservative party) thought she'd be OK.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

If we don't crash out at the end of this month then I agree that local elections in May are ones to watch. Although the Tories appear to have huge leads (as they did when May called her election) on the ground locally, the Tories are busy falling out with each other, other councillors are quietly standing down this time and with the vast amount of housebuilding going on locally, the Greens especially are targetting the NIMBY vote.

If we crash out then - I don't know, all bets as to what happens are off, I would think.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
Three line whip for Tory MPs on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

Votes on 13th and 14th only happen if the one on the 12th fails remember. The whip is the confirmation the vote should still be on.

{If we crash out then - I don't know, all bets as to what happens are off, I would think.}

It is not just the crash out scenario. so far NO ONE has suggested anything positive that any party would actually do to 'remedy' the causes of Brexit.
Mrs Mays insult throwing some money to buy votes, I think it was estimated this represents about £5.70 per person per year.
The bung to the DUP represented around £1,000 per person, although was a 'one off'.
Refusing to properly fund the police.
Finding yet more ways to annoy everyone rather than heal rifts.

Watch this space. The Common Travel Agreement is basically a gentleman's agreement, built on trust.

This has always concerned me. I am wondering when they will try and play this card to try and get some concessions from Ireland.

I see the 'blame the EU for all our Brexit woes game' is being stepped up.

From Steve Bullock @GuitarMoog
The Logic of Brexit

Leave a Free Trade Area to trade more freely

Leave trade agreements to get new trade agreements

Weaken influence to become stronger

Turn inward to be more global

Opt out by opting in

Welcome people by being hostile

I see the 'blame the EU for all our Brexit woes game' is being stepped up.

We need to remind Leavers that they were told:

1. "They" (The EU) need us more than them
2. we held all the cards

That being the case, how can the EU have the whip hand ?

1. Leavers were lied to

(and/or)

2. The UK is in a less advantageous position due to incompetence in negotiations

Bet none of our "star" journalists manages to land that on any oily Brexiteer.

I spy with my little eye something beginning with R...

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/179109.htm

Littlespaces that is fascinating! 19% so why are leavers bothered about Polish nurses yet not bothered about this??

It's lucky these Russians haven't discovered proxy servers or we wouldn't be able to keep track of them.

Adam Fleming is reporting on Twitter that all EU27 have been called to a meeting this afternoon.
I imagine they are going to decide whether they will agree to a delay if we finally ask for one.
I hope they do agree, they must be thoroughly sick of us by now, can't say I blame them

More pageviews from Moscow than from London !

Adam Fleming is reporting on Twitter that all EU27 have been called to a meeting this afternoon.

Item 1 on the agenda how to get rid of the fxxxing lot of us.

Try switching to all meetings in Portuguese or Irish that'll teach us.

Tom Newton Dunn*@tnewtondunn*

Why Cox’s Codpiece has car crashed.
Point 9 in Nick’s excellent thread nails it
....
Nick Gutteridgee@nick*gutteridge

1/ Geoffrey Cox has scrapped a planned visit to Brussels today for further negotiations
because the gulf between the EU & UK over what legal assurances will cut the mustard is so wide.

So, what are both sides offering? The latest from me and @tnewtondunn
.....
6/ One EU diplomat summed up the UK plan thus:

'The Cox version of the backstop is based on no apparent understanding of the Withdrawal Agreement, customs procedure or EU law.

It will never fly with Member States.
If this is the game plan, I fear we'd better prepare for no deal.'
....
9/ The problem, EU sources say, is fundamentally one of polar opposite perspectives.
One says:

'The UK's reasoning is if the future relationship breaks down then they must be able to get out of the backstop.

Our reasoning is the opposite. That's precisely when we'll need it.'

< Bloody obvious, that's the PURPOSE of a backstop - to be used if all else fails >

When you add in the other Russian cities from that table the interest from Russia is around 25% (I can't be arsed to add it up properly!)

UK govt version of the EU's No Deal notice on aviation

Covers cargos, cabotage, crews, ownership ....

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/air-services-from-the-eu-to-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal

I am guessing that the local elections will be an eye opener.

There is a lot of anger in our area over the corruption and mismanagement by the Tories on all levels, both local and national.

I think the LibDems are going to wipe the floor with them.