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Brexit

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/03/2019 21:11

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

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jasjas1973 · 07/03/2019 18:30

We are not doing the stereotype of the remain voter much good here

So, for balance, i don't shop at JL and never would, ASDA and Wilko is more my scene.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/03/2019 18:34

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

1tisILeClerc · 07/03/2019 18:34

I do JL, M&S, Tesco, ASDA, Wilko etc.
Probably some sort of 'shoptart'!

HazardGhost · 07/03/2019 18:37

I don't shop at JL as it's fecking expensive, the make up counter girls are rude to my sort in the local one BUT I like to wonder around as I find the store very soothing Blush

MillytantForceit · 07/03/2019 18:39

After just spending millions revamping their Reading HQ, Primark have suddenly decided to move to Dublin.

But it's "Nothing to do with Brexit."

So that's alright then.

Peregrina · 07/03/2019 18:41

Their core demographic doesn't do online shopping.
Less of this please.Grin
I am in their core demographic and I do online shopping all the time.
I don't usually buy clothes on line - I prefer to try them on, and I try to avoid Amazon and support a local bookshop. But white goods - the local shop closed down, so I might as well buy on line.

67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 18:43

I always buy my meat from the co op.

And fruit.

I like to browse in JL. I rarely buy things. Bit too pricey for me 😩

But I love going round the perfume dept and having a good old spray of all the testers.

I come out smelling like a Turkish brothel but nevermind....😁

Littlespaces · 07/03/2019 18:43

Is reality starting to set in?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/no-deal-over-brexit-mean-14102477

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 07/03/2019 18:43

hazard - I think the make up counter girls are rude to everyone!

I love JL but find the store really claustrophobic and exhausting. Maybe because most departments in ours don’t have windows. I find I move around slower and slower until I get overcome by droopiness.

dontcallmelen · 07/03/2019 18:43

Mrs sometimes the offers at M&S are really good, especially the choices of meat & fish three for a tenner & the Irish recipe sausages are really tasty & good value, I’m a shoptart as well flit between M&S Lidl & Sainsbury’s & Wilko/B&M/Pound shops for cleaning & laundry stuff.

67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 18:44

peregrina

😁

1tisILeClerc · 07/03/2019 18:45

{I come out smelling like a Turkish brothel but nevermind....😁}
That raises some awkward questions!

Loletta · 07/03/2019 18:47

Latest from Peston. More surreal by the day.
The attorney general Geoffrey Cox appears to have taken a leaf out of the Theresa May political playbook by equating compromise with a plan that simultaneously alienates more-or-less everyone.

The proposal he loudly and proudly calls a codpiece - to reform the Northern Ireland backstop - has been rejected by EU negotiators under Michel Barnier.

But from the details about it which I've gleaned, I cannot remotely see how it would have been accepted by the Tory ERG Brexiters that it was supposed to placate.

Cox's cunning plan was to rework the powers of the arbitration panel that would be created if the UK ever ratifies the Withdrawal Agreement. After Brexit, it would become a vehicle to decide whether the UK had made reasonable and credible proposals to replace the backstop, and it could rule that the UK could therefore get out of the backstop.

This would in effect mean that neither the UK or EU would any longer possess a veto on whether the utility of the backstop had come to an end.

Which is why it was almost immediately rejected by Barnier.

The point is that would out-source to a non EU body a decision on whether the EU's single market would be compromised. And that is a principle the EU's 27 leaders have said they will not breach.

Perhaps recognising this EU sensitivity, Cox also said that if the panel - which consists of equal numbers of UK and EU nominees - ruled that the backstop had outlived its purpose, it would be replaced by a "mini" or scaled down backstop.

There wasn't a lot of detail about this mini backstop. But it is thought to be a conventional free trade agreement combined with a system for checking that agricultural products and livestock meet EU standards some way away from the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic (at the border of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

The mini backstop has the smell version of the so-called Malthouse ideas, which the EU think don't work - or at least not yet.

So Cox was sent back to Westminster, to think again.

But I am not sure this is the catastrophe for Mayist diplomacy it may seem, since I find it difficult to believe that the Tory Brexiters of the European Research Group would have been converted by it - since it doesn't offer any guarantees of escape from the backstop on any specified date, and certainly not any time soon.

So even if Barner has swallowed it, I think it highly unlikely it would have been sufficient for the PM's reworked deal to be ratified by MPs.

What next?

Well, Barnier - against what the EU has said it would do - volunteered three or four ways to give additional legal force to his consistent claim that the backstop will in practice be temporary, even if not provably so ex ante.

Cox will examine these - and, presumably, return to Brussels with redrafted versions of his own putative solutions.

And what it's worth, players on both sides of the Channel seem resigned to defeat - or rather they expect that whatever reassurances Cox wins on the backstop, they will not be sufficient to deliver victory in the Commons at the very last for May and her deal,

What is extraordinary is that even though the stakes could not be higher, there is almost no sense of jeopardy around any of this.

Because what all politicians are discounting is that May's deal flops and then the following day MPs vote to take off the table the no-deal Brexit that should logically follow on 29 March.

That said, there is massive jeopardy around an associated event, which is over which lobby the PM enters when the no-deal motion is put to a vote.

I wrote about this at some length on Tuesday. But I forgot to point out that EU leaders are agog about whether the PM will vote for or against a 29 March no-deal Brexit.

Logically she should vote to retain the option of no-deal, if she wishes to be true to almost three years of her rhetoric. But were she to do that, it is not clear how she could credibly and consistently represent MPs and the UK if the vote goes as expected, and MPs order her to sue the EU for a delay to Brexit.

And if she too votes to abandon no deal, her credibility would be shot to pieces because of the sheer supertanker size of her u-turn.

To lead is take responsibility. But what if every possible course of action represents personal failure and humiliation?

Theresa May is the most unflappable premier of this or perhaps any age. But surely even she cannot be immune from any hint of anxiety at the horrors that await her next week.

TheElementsSong · 07/03/2019 18:50

There’s yet another of those “Has anyone changed their mind?” threads on AIBU (or Chat, or somewhere). Full of the usual sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Loletta · 07/03/2019 18:54

Rob Powell on Twitter:

Stuff that’s happened today:

1️⃣ Amber Rudd calls Diane Abbott “coloured”.
2️⃣ NI Secretary apologises for saying some Troubles deaths were “not crimes”.
3️⃣ Labour could face a Human Rights probe over antisemitism.
4️⃣ Nothing has changed on Brexit, and we’re 22 days away.

😬

67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 18:56

(Cough)
What I imagine one would smell like. Obv. :)

1tisILeClerc · 07/03/2019 18:58

{Because what all politicians are discounting is that May's deal flops and then the following day MPs vote to take off the table the no-deal Brexit that should logically follow on 29 March.}

No deal can't be taken off the table as it is the default unless Mrs May DOES something.

1tisILeClerc · 07/03/2019 19:00

67chevvyimpala
And I thought you were a 'lady of mystery'.

67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 19:01

"Lady"

Guffaw 😂

67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 19:06

Tbh I'm starting to worry again.

The level of disinterest about brexshit that I am aware of in my community and in my personal life is....baffling.

Even foodbank trustees and staff seem totally unfazed.

There really is a "the govt wont let anything awful happen" assumption.

26% of people polled recently think mo deal = no Brexit.

Do people not realise that no deal is the DEFAULT unless the govt DO something and present the EU with anything they can take forward!??

1tisILeClerc · 07/03/2019 19:09

At school we were told that a female over early teens should be referred to as a lady, and that if you were a gentleman you wouldn't question it, or something like that. I forget the name of the teacher but it was while reading through Macbeth, 48 years ago.

PestyMachtubernahme · 07/03/2019 19:23

It is a lovely idea to take no deal off the table.
But how the feck is that going to work?

May's deal will have been rejected again by the. Does she just put it forward as plan C?

We can ask for an extension to continue to argue amongst ourselves, can't see the EU granting that.

Does she shrug her shoulders and revoke? Seems rather out of character.

Does the lovely idea really have a point?

pointythings · 07/03/2019 19:27

And here's the new strategy for getting rid of the backstop: www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/07/attorney-general-geoffrey-cox-rejects-eu-brexit-deadlock-complaints

Yep, the backstop breaches the human rights of the people of NI. I really don't know whether to laugh or cry.

PestyMachtubernahme · 07/03/2019 19:35

Hmm, those same human rights we want to get rid of.

TalkinPaece · 07/03/2019 19:35

I am shocked that the "Best for Britain" crew are so uninformed !!

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