Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

BCF

The Tories also pride themselves, at least publicly, on their diversity and fairness.

I think there is an issue with antisemitism in the Labour party BUT the majority of criticism isn't aimed at solving the problem but used by Corbyn/Lab critics as a means to boost the Tories popularity and its working brilliantly.

Louise surely that depends on whether you want food regulations to stay high, have medical facilities at the same level (of course proper govt funding is still required to keep these up), workers rights to stay as good, etc?

If these don't affect you because you are rich/have private health insurance/live abroad and don't have kids here/simply don't care, then of course you won't care any more the next time around.

And can you not see how much the rest of us have lost for your decision?

I don't care if people don't want to change their minds, but at least have some care for what everyone is loosing, hand over fist, for no gain. Of course people who are affected will be more emotional and hurt than those who aren't.

If a new "peoples vote" is held which MNers seem to want, I'm among few posters on here whom the majority would presumably want to convince to vote differently next time. How do you think that's going?

Well, i don't want a PV to overturn the 2016 decision but to ratify the current deal based on that we now know more about Brexit and that deals were never mentioned on the ballot paper.

So, its not about changing minds as you put it but to democratize the decision OR to vote to stay.

We should all be given the chance to change our minds.

Its problematic, i agree, because that idiot Cameron said it was a Once in a life time choice, however, he has left the scene and we are now in a new Parliament.

Sam Coates Times
‏*@SamCoatesTimes*
In the middle of the brexit crisis the DexEU permanent secretary... announces early retirement.

Philip Rycroft - 57 - retiring as Permanent Secretary at DExEU to be succeeded by Defra's Clare Moriarty

@hzeffman reveals that Rycroft's replacement is 2 years younger than him...

www.gov.uk/government/news/appointment-of-new-permanent-secretary-at-dexeu

And one Parliament can't bind a future one. That is democracy, uncomfortable though it might be for some Leavers.

Moriarty.

How many MNetters dream of retiring at 67, let alone 57 ?

oliver wright
‏**@oliver**_wright
So the Brexit department's permanent secretary is to 'retire' at the end of the month - aged 57. Given his department is responsible for no deal - it is not a good look for the civil service.

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
As @oliver_wright alludes this couldn't be worse timing. Rycroft has been at the heart of "no deal" planning for months - and leaving on the day it is potentially meant to come into force.

{Liking the idea that people vote in a national referendum to "bugger" an individual's retirement plans. Didn't see that on the side of a bus! }
That's the problem. You 'won' a lucky dip bag because you hadn't researched enough so voted to leave. The things I have lost already, and there is more loss to come, are things that are being seen by those that are looking now (many on this thread) and you will discover when the UK actually leaves and in time to come. The UK has not left yet and only a limited number of downsides have started to take effect. Saying that Osborne's predictions didn't happen is misplaced. His predictions are coming true, it is just that it was not immediately after the vote but after the usual inertia of the economy. Brexiteers seem to expect things to happen immediately. The world rarely works like that unless you drop an atomic bomb on somewhere (literally). The WA and indeed all negotiations have yet to start in earnest. The WA is only a plan for leaving, not the detail, which will take several more years. Even a 'crash out' will require a couple of years to form a new relationship.
Personally I have done about as much as I can to mitigate against Brexit. It has cost me dearly and they are measures that very few would actually contemplate. This does not mean I don't have empathy with those who could also see the severe downsides, but who are trapped and can only hope and pray that things won't be too bad.
What is most upsetting is that there are so many in the UK who do embrace being part of Europe who are being forced to make choices unnecessarily.

Sky News Breaking
‏*@SkyNewsBreak*
Theresa May's spokesman says if the Prime Minister's Brexit deal is voted down by MPs then votes on no deal and a delay to Brexit will take place as promised

The likes of BMW and others have planned their shutdown for 30 March.
Delaying departure on 29th March will simply cost them more and likely to make them more determined to leave the UK.
It is the indecision that will kill industry, not so much the actual choice.

I suspect someone doesn’t want to be responsible in any shape or form for theness a no deal Brexit wouod be.
Nit for the lack of preparation, nor for sorting out the mess after.

If MPs vote against No Deal and for an extension .....but then an EU member country vetoes this,

I expect May would bring her WA back to the HoC yet again on the 28 / 29 th, so they know the alternative is No Deal.
Except for those Brexiters - DD especially - convinced the EU will blink at 10:59 pm pn the 29th

If the extension and the WA both fail, she would probably claim she had fulfilled the terms of the HoC votes by asking for an extension,
hence No Deal = not her fault

hence No Deal = not her fault

She would still reap the whirlwind if the economy tanks. So would the Tory Party.

If MPs vote against No Deal and for an extension .....but then an EU member country vetoes this

It would need to be requested first. Who has any faith that TM would actually do that ? After all contempt of parliament is now "a thing", apparently.

If a request were made, I'm still sceptical it would be granted - there's no indication it would lead to anything new.

Philip Rycroft - 57 - retiring as Permanent Secretary at DExEU to be succeeded by Defra's Clare Moriarty

•Mycroft (Rycroft ) Holmes
•Moriarty

This is a joke right? Where is who is Sherlock?

twitter.com/Peston/status/1103573338209861633

Interesting development.

Here's Jess Phillips proving she's one of the few honest MPs with even the slightest modicum of guts and morality.

twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1103227782962782208

Please can I have her for my MP

DG I expect she'd apply for a v short extension, to give her WA one last heave ( )
and the EU probably - not certainly - would agree to that

EU permission is by no means the formality that most MPs so arrogantly assume

However, most MPs believe either the EU will blink, or some other good fairy will prevent the UK really suffering

I've been thinking of Brexit as Suez II ever since the ref,
but although the psychological effects of Suez - the abject crawling of the UK ruling classes to the USA - still persist,
the financial / economic effects were very transitory and didn't affect ordinary people.

Suez II - if it ends in No Deal - should eventually end delusions about the UK being a world power,
but would in reality also bring it down from being at the high end of middle-ranking powers.

{If a request were made, I'm still skeptical it would be granted - there's no indication it would lead to anything new.}

I think I would read the action by French customs over the last few days to be a warning shot. Mr Macron is very against an extension and I could well see the idea of working to rule having been 'suggested'.
Like all workers unions, there is a possibility of disruption to make a point and improve conditions/pay they will take it. I have not followed the story closely but on the basis that the French customs are following to the letter (and I trust they are) then there is nothing wrong in their actions. Maybe the Dutch and Belgians will join in in a while?
The EU don't want 'more negotiations' at this point, they want the UK to make it's mind up.

DG I expect she'd apply for a v short extension, to give her WA one last heave ( grin ) and the EU probably - not certainly - would agree to that

I can't see an extension being agreed to if all TM has to offer is "I'll try my wretched WA again". She might be able to bore parliament into submission - the EU less so.

Here's Jess Phillips proving she's one of the few honest MPs with even the slightest modicum of guts and morality.

I'm one constituency along from her. She's the sort of MP I would vote for [almost] regardless of their party - she's passionate about her city and people. Maybe West Midlands mayor awaits, once we've dumped Andy "who ?" Street ?

I had given myself a couple of days 'off' Brexit see my posts on the moving house thread but back on it today and it looks increasingly bleak. So what happens if:

• MV fails
• No deal off the table passes
• Extension passes
• 3 month extension only granted if we can tell the EU what for
• Our response is blah blah blah i.e. we continue to dick about for another 3 months
• The EU say 'off the cliff you go then'

Not massively unlikely, is it?

Argh! 22 days!!!!

Jess Phillips, the one who threatens to stab her leader? yeah full of guts that one!

Jess Phillips, the one who threatens to stab her leader? yeah full of guts that one!

Not something I'm aware of without a cite ...