Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

“Vote for Theresa May’s deal, or you will end up with a soft Brexit.”

Could be a threat or a promise ....

I'm another who avoided endowment mortgages in the mid-1980s, even though I ws being massively pressured by Abbey National
and told by everyone how paranoid & silly I was to refuse such good deals.

"Of course it'll pay of your mortgage or 'they' wouldn't offer it"

There seems a history of many people expecting that for important decisions any available choices given to them must be safe, or they wouldn't be offered

Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford

Philip Hammond effectively says that if you want more police officers, MPs should vote for the PM’s deal

He’s tacitly linked the two biggest issues of the day - Brexit and knife crime

We did have an endowment mortgage at one time, but thankfully got out of it after a few years for a straightforward repayment.

As for the GFA - we knew about it, although it could have been emphasised more. A bit difficult though, because Major was one of the architects of the GFA, and of course the ERG were against him, destroyed his Premiership, and where the group that Cameron had to pander to.

Exasperation from EU why Cox keeps demanding impossible legal changes that would wreck the backstop & hence the SM.


Francesco Nicoli@FrancescoNicoli

I honestly don't get all the Cox's work.
The difference is not semantic, legal, or formalistic, but substantial.
We want to have the last word on if and when the backstop ends,

because otherwise the Single Market dies.
.....

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

Mad thing is that this can’t have come as a surprise to @Geoffrey_Cox - he’s a lawyer.
He must get that the EU weren’t gonna agree sub-contract highly political (but also legal) decision-making to a third party.

Maybe he thought the big baritone would do it.
.....
Bruno Waterfield@BrunoBrussels

One EU diplomat noted: “The stickiest point was his request on independent review and arbitration to end the backstop.
The assurances on independence that he wants go well beyond what is in the withdrawal agreement and would undermine the EU’s legal order”

You should have called for this in 2017 - it was obvious then how incompetent your govt is.

If you mean your "new generation governing differently" would have dropped the fOM & ECJ red lines, fine
Bit if not, they would have ended up with the same WA

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Excl: Rising star Tory MP Johnny Mercer calls on Theresa May and her ageing Cabinet to stand aside: "It’s time for a new generation to take over and govern differently”.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/8578442/johnny-mercer-call-theresa-may-make-way/

I know it's a bit (lot) cruel but maybe for this SKY '2 weeks in Derby' thing as they voted Leave, they should do an 'apprentice' thing. 'Your all fired'.

jas Few Tory voters would be surprised about Tory Islamophobia - in fact it's probably a main reason many of them vote Tory

However, Labour claim that anti-racism is a fundamental principle of their party and they use this to drum up votes from minorities and social liberals

Also, Labour were traditionally the political home for Jewish voters and politicians,
so the Jewish community feel they are losing an asset, a protection, that they have had for several decades.

I think there is a not so hidden agenda here with JC and anti semitism, whatever happens, whatever measure are done... a "new" scandal" erupts!

I would agree here, and they ought to be careful not to over egg it. At the moment the thought of JC being PM is keeping people from voting Labour, so he's a godsend to the Tories. Get someone else in charge, Starmer (maybe), Thornberry - someone seen as more credible and then I think they would be really rattled.

Nick Gutteridge@nickgutteridge

To preempt inevitable question 'then why are they insisting on backstop?' ^

answer is clear - for Ireland.

They can't dump on mate in the club in favour of one leaving.
Undermines whole point of EU.

But there are many here who privately wish May had never signed up to it in Dec 17.
....
Loiseau again makes the very important point that's it's absurd to think EU would actively want to trap UK in the backstop.

The French absolutely hate it despite Macron's remarks over fishing.

If it were ever triggered the EU would work 24/7 to leave it ASAP.
.......
Georgina Wright@GeorginaEWright

French EU Minister @NathalieLoiseau^ on @BBCRadio4^:

We (EU27) can’t unilaterally leave the backstop either

- which is why it wd only ever be temporary.

Wd apply unless and until other solutions are found. And then adds: just read the withdrawal agreement.

However, Labour claim that anti-racism is a fundamental principle of their party and they use this to drum up votes from minorities and social liberals

Speaking of racism, did anyone catch the "news" that apparently Will Smith isn't "black enough" to play the Williams sisters father ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47468011

So there I was growing up not seeing the colour of peoples skin when it turns out it's the important thing - certainly trumping acting ability

Sky is doing a 2 week Derby special where they show us how many Leavers in Derby still believe in Project Fear, it seems .

Is it just me to say Will Smith can't be old enough to play the father of anyone but toddlers < wails >

i was taken aback by an MN thread saying how old and grotty Richard Gere looked, when I remember when he was the hot heart throb

I can understand the wish to stop the world and put it into reverse mode,
I don't understand the belief that it is possible

Add John Lewis to the Debenhams mood music ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47480250

{Sky is doing a 2 week Derby special where they show us how many Leavers in Derby still believe in Project Fear, it seems .}
I mentioned it previously. Could make great TV if Rolls Royce change their 'moving technical standards to the EU' which is mostly revelatory, to saying they would shut the factories. OK they probably won't although nothing is impossible.
Maybe have a TV vote like 'strictly', should company XXX close?
The apprentice meets Strictly.

Evil, maybe but I have lost interest in Brexiteers. They voted to bugger my retirement and they have 'won'.

I am pretty much the same as you 1tis - forget about the Brexiters.

Going back to earlier statements that you made about how you think we need to leave, with a view to rejoining some years later: this put me in mind of a talk I heard Lionel Blu give on the radio. He said that the children of Israel needed to spend their 40 years wandering in the wilderness because the generation which had grown up under slavery in Egypt would still have that mentality and needed to die out. I think it's the same with the EU - "the Little Englander, we have a big Empire brigade" need to die out (or depart from the political scene.)

As it happens I am of that generation, although not a little Englander. We were stuffed full of stories of Empire when I was growing up, while at the same time, colonies were gaining independence and the Union Jack was coming down and a new flag raised, but we didn't have much analysis of why that was happening. I was brought up to question - but many others weren't, and we are now seeing the results.

BCF

Anti semitism and Islamophobia are both equally wrong, especially when the latter is endemic in the party of Govt.

Chris Williamson was suspended within 24hours after his belief that labour had given too much ground to these allegations..... hardly anti semitic comments.
Yet even his very quick suspension wasn't good enough for the likes of (anti-corbyn campaigner) Margaret Hodge, who, as leader of Islington council, ignored a child sex abuse report in the 80s and is linked to tax avoidance.... yet was promoted.

What is good enough for the Goose is good enough for the Gander.

If the people of Derby think anyone in Westminster gives a shit what they think, they're deluded .....

Liking the idea that people vote in a national referendum to "bugger" an individual's retirement plans. Didn't see that on the side of a bus!

Remainer superiority is alive and well on another thread, most comforting.

jas I was not posting about who is more morally wrong,
but stating why it is natural to criticise parties more when they continually go against whta they claim is their core values ot core competences.

That's why I keep referring to Boris's "Fuck business" and how the Tories are screwing business.

• because they have traditionally claimed to be the party of business.

because they have traditionally claimed to be the party of business

I think, given the zeitgeist, it's better to describe Tories as "self identifying" as the party of business. Not quite the same thing.

Well, if it wasn't pensions the NI or increased risk of TTIP style trade with US and resultant lower food regulations that stopped you voting remain, what else were you voting to take away? You've got medical issues that you were warned about, the above, lack of workers rights being signed into anything meaningful...all as predicted.

What exactly have you won compared to what you have taken away @Louise?

www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-brief-theresa-may-faces-second-heavy-defeat-of-eu-exit-plans-2019-03-07?siteid=rss&rss=1

"Elsewhere, investors are selling their holdings in U.K. property funds at a faster rate than they did in the aftermath of the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU, as fears grow that a disorderly Brexit will cause a real estate price crash."

Investors getting worried.

With a tiny handful of worthy exceptions, neither the press, nor MPs nor remainers nor Brexiters mentioned the Good Friday agreement

I don't think that's completely true. At the time of the referendum I was working in a drug and alcohol service in NW England, certainly none of us were experts in the GFA/ NI/ politics in general, but all of us were really concerned about the implications of Brexit for NI.

What have I won? I haven't won anything. It was decision. I am in a small minority of posters on here (it would seem) who voted differently to the majority (again, I mean on MN Brexit threads).

One thing that does interest me about these threads is this. If a new "peoples vote" is held which MNers seem to want, I'm among few posters on here whom the majority would presumably want to convince to vote differently next time. How do you think that's going?