Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Blimey, he's not even a minister... his French heritage ?

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford" target="_blank">Steven Swinfordd<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford" target="_blank">@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Dominic Grieve will tomorrow hold a meeting with senior members of Emmanuel Macron's Govt to discuss extending A50 as path to 2nd referendum

Nathalie Loiseau will attend meeting in Grieve's parliamentary office with her advisers & officials
......

Dominic Grieve has invited Remain Tory MPs to attend the meeting.

Top of their agenda is a longer extension to A50 as part of a bid to get a 2nd referendum

There have been reports France will demand a 21 month Brexit delay. Retainers think they need year to secure 2nd ref

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/06/exclusive-dominic-grieve-hosts-french-minister-discussions-article/

What use is the remain side meeting her going to do? I know they are the sensible ones who will treat her like a human and with respect (rather than talk about the war and frogs legs etc) but unless they are honest about the state of things in the Tory party, isn't it all a bit pointless?

In other news Cambridge Analytica's Andrew Nix visited Downing Street which was struck from transparancy data in Nov 2016. May manages to avoid the Q...

Just reading the Guardian link "The Truth About Brexit"
Second, large numbers of those voting in the referendum knew nothing about the first truth. This is not because they were stupid or ill educated. Nor is it because they did not pay attention to what was being said. With a tiny handful of worthy exceptions, neither the press, nor MPs nor remainers nor Brexiters mentioned the Good Friday agreement. Still less did anyone press home the fact that, because of the agreement, the only Brexit that does not contain the potential to destroy the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a customs union (either explicitly in name or, de facto, in a sideways deal such as the backstop).
I actually can't believe i've just read that in the Guardian. I posted about it to leaver friends before the ref on social media, people I know who are Irish posted about it - a lot, at least 3 Pro Eu site on FB I follow posted about it, several Lecturers of EU Law/Trade posted long videos about it and i'm fairly confident the Guardian itself mentioned it once or twice.

Is this what we have to do to now enable Leavers to turn back? Pretend they were quite right in choosing wanton destruction because they didn't read about it enough? Or that we didn't get through their thick skulls how important this would be? No thanks. They said it all was Project Fear - do we do this every time it becomes Project Peality?

The Good Friday Agreement issue was bloody obvious to anyone who bothered to look or listen. It was on here loads.

Bellini I liked the GFA as an argument because it was so clearly not to do with the referendum; as in it was from another time. It seemed to be so clear cut in the early days that legally Brexit "couldn't" happen.
Then of course Brexiteers decided it was fine to break an international peace treaty and apparently half of the country agree! I wouldn't have guessed that in 2016.

BCF

I think there is a not so hidden agenda here with JC and anti semitism, whatever happens, whatever measure are done... a "new" scandal" erupts!

Yet on here and across the media little or no sustained comments on Lady Warsi's (former Tory chair) and others allegations/evidence on Tory Islamophobia, indeed some in the tory party see it as a vote winner.... Sadiq Khan being "beheaded" one of the latest pictures that is doing the rounds.

Mother well this will go in 2 simultaneous directions:

1. Leavers calling French work-shy/trouble makers/typical striking frogs causing us 'ishoos'

1. Leavers will start blaming the above for any delays we have between the boarder from here-on in rather than their own vote

I think it's great that they protest, particularly in recent years when I've wished we did things like spray parliament with manure, but leavers are a different kettle of not the bits we sell to EU fish.

Good for the French! We need more of "this is what it WILL be like" rather than "scaremongering" stories that just give opinion. Although leavers will still claim its project fear 

TM needs ousting but the prospect of anyone else as PM fills me with worse dread. What the fuck is she playing at?! Can anyone overrule the government and take control? I can't believe my country is in such a mess.

Obviously it's a secret pact between Remoaners and the French because remoaners are , basically, all French. 😂

Farming Today. The US Ambassador's "no charm" charm offensive and fact checking. Also Worms.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0002zf0

French customs aren't even protesting Brexit, they are protesting the lack of preparation on their side. And thank goodness for us that they are.
If we started protesting about the lack of preparation, there wouldn't be a single sector that weren't on strike.

If Bradley really said that - in the HoC ! - then she should have been sacked on the spot.
She did say it BigChoc the video clip is right here in this clip.

twitter.com/dmc_fadden/status/1103283268017942528?s=19

Leavers calling French work-shy/trouble makers/typical striking frogs causing us 'ishoos'

May I laugh at the idea that someone who is working to the rules and is therefore extremely conscientious is work shy?? 😂😂

They are making a point there. One that we dint seem to want to acknowledge. That no one is ready.
The words wthig for me is that they seem to have more issues about it than most Leavers have. And they are nit the ones who are really going to suffer because of it.

While the UK is busy examining it's own arse, there are many very similar issues to the real reasons behind Brexit all over Europe. I think on the whole the rest of Europe don't see 'exiting' as a real solution, as although many will grumble about the EU, they feel the benefit of the security (lack of war) element which was a major factor in the setting up of the whole project. Even the far right Europeans don't want to 'exit' they would like to be in control though.
To keep Karen Brady in post with her lack of knowledge and tact is criminal. NI minister is probably the most sensitive of all cabinet posts in that it is a delicate balancing issue. Most other posts have a bunch of civil servants doing the actual work and will be interfacing with the equivalent civil servants with whom they are dealing so a 'gaffe' by the poster boy or girl is less damaging.
Although the French work to rule will be frustrating for many French who will be inconvenienced by it, I support it as it is necessary to get the UK to think.

Ironically of course the French customs aren't being work shy, work to rule will be massively increasing their workload by taking this action. All that paperwork and checking.

With a tiny handful of worthy exceptions, neither the press, nor MPs nor remainers nor Brexiters mentioned the Good Friday agreement.

Sorry, I call bollocks. I consider myself engaged, but not an activist, and I was well aware from articles in the spread of sources I read.

I can well believe there are a lot of people for whom the complexities of the GFA have come as a surprise. But it's not because it was a state secret.

I have a similar rage when people whine about endowment mortgages. When I left Uni in 1988, I looked into buying a house with a friend (who remembers MIRAS ?). After having a brief look at repayment and endowment mortgages, we both found (independently) the small print about "it may not pay off your mortgage and it's your responsibility to ensure sufficient funds to do so" and decided to steer well clear. Surprise, surprise a few years later and there's a chorus of "we weren't told". Only you were. But didn't listen. (There's a saying my DF sometimes uses about not being able to hear for the gold in your ears ....)

All of that said, if playing the "poor us" card is what it takes for Leavers to become Remainers, I'm sure I can bite my tongue.

Of course it was mentioned. Don't you remember Nige trying to shut down discussion of it on Question Time saying "we don't give in to terrorism " and all that shit. He bloody KNEW it was a problem.

@DGRossetti , I'm the same age and avoided endowment mortgages for the same reason.

{ (who remembers MIRAS ?)}
I remember the 'bath with a friend' adverts. Sadly I didn't fancy having a bath with my friends of that time.
The GFA 'issue' was being discussed widely on the radio well over a year ago.

{increasing their workload by taking this action. All that paperwork and checking.} With the possibility of problems with databases between the EU and a third country the queues may get infinitely longer.

Have the odds changed on WA getting through now we know there won't be any changes as EU has given 48 hours to UK to come up with 'something'?

20 years ago dh and I avoided an endowment mortgage for the same reason!

“Vote for Theresa May’s deal, or you will end up with a soft Brexit.” Those weren’t quite the words that Philip Hammond, the chancellor, used in his interview on the Today programme this morning, but undoubtedly that was his message.

Well I don't see the WA going through with that message. Lots of people would love to see a softer Brexit.
I know there are also many how would like a hard Brexit but I tend to discount them as being like Raab and not having read or comprehended the GFA (which we did talk about on here and at home).

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/07/hammond-tells-tories-to-back-mays-deal-or-risk-softer-brexit--politics-live

The GFA 'issue' was being discussed widely on the radio well over a year ago.

It was discussed way before the referendum.

In fact, I have a vague memory that when Dinky Dave "the cunt" Cameron was wittering on about a "British Bill of Rights" there was a forensic article in a dead-tree paper (Times ?) which pointed out all the reasons he was spouting bollocks. Every one was a killer, but they noted that the fact the GFA was underpinned by the UKs membership of the ECHR and EU meant that any attempt to untangle them would be doomed to failure. This was during the 2010-2015 government.

I noticed with no particular interest that SKY seem to be running some sort of "around the UK" thing about Brexit today. They have a TV in the foyer of the leisure centre (thankfully with the sound off). You hear some interesting chatter ....