Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

If Corbyn got in, he might want to, but he'd never get most of his MPs to vote for it.

Not that he will get in. I'll probably vote Labour at the next GE, now that they've backed a second ref- unless they step back from that of course, which they could still do, and depending on whether they manage to actually do something more than denial and shouting at people raising the anti Semitism issue, but I think we saw his peak electoral result in 2017.

He could whip his own MPs - we've seen only a few Remainers break ranks when whipped - and also most of the Tory MPs would vote for Invoking

I would predict a call to Dynorod* on 30 March to Westminster to deal with a major blockage as the government discover that there really is a problem that needs looking at.
To preserve sanity and integrity of the EU this nonsense needs to be over ASAP .
Although not hostile as such but the EU are fed up with this indecision and there is no sign of the UK doing the decent thing and making it's mind up, almost as if it hasn't got one.

• other drain clearance companies are available.

DG An extension of A50 means we are still in the EU, so we can still Revoke unilaterally

BUT
If we actually Brexit - with or without an extension, with No Deal or with the WA approved - there is no possibility of Revoking A50

A50 is just the means to leave
Once we have left, we would need to apply again to join, whch is Article 49

The EU indicated we could have a Fast Track rejoin during the WA transition^

WIth good negotiation / good will, we could retain all / almost all optouts

• even the promise to join the Euro in a far distant future of actually being able to satisfy the criteria, might be wived exceptionally as a unique case of an ex-member

BUT
If it's No Deal .... the EU has not said whether they would allow a Fast Track rejoin

(Worst case and a year down the road: If the UK becomes a financial, social & political basket case, they probably wouldn't want us anyway)

Even if we could prove the referendum was fraudulent, it as only advisory
The HoC chose to Invoke A50

and even if that was somehow deemed invalid under UK law,
No Deal is the automatic outcome of A50 if no other option is chosen

So No Deal would have been a perfectly legal outcome under international law

Corbyn might do it, if he got in.

Id love to see him try and get that through conference, i doubt it would end well

When Corbyn does go, who do you think will replace him? People have said McDonnell a few times but I don't see that happening.

Peregrina

Agree that government's incompetence is woeful and inexcusable but belated understanding and realisation that revoking A50 is in the national interest is better than pushing ahead recklessly. If UK press ahead with WA with no internally agreed end-state position to target and putting the nation in an even weaker negotiating position wrt the EU is foolhardy. Particularly if you distrust the motives of the EU as leavers do.

It seems that at least some leavers appreciate that having a veto and influence within the EU is better than languishing in the backstop arrangement waiting for the EU to agree to a new arrangement that's compatible with the GFA (or break-up of the UK & unification of Ireland). Perhaps shows how low expectations have got but see that as progress (probably just me). Agree that the EU would be entirely justified to be peeved at the enormous waste of time and expense particularly as UK intends to resubmit A50 in the future. The FS, manufacturing and other business they've taken from the UK will be some compensation mind.

icannotremember
Not really bothered who replaces Corbyn, so long as Seamus Milne and his poisonous views leave the inner circles of the party.

Motheroffourdragons
The beauty is that once revoked article 50 would have to be voted for again. I don't think it would happen any time soon

Agree which is where some leavers show that the nihilism knows no bounds (i.e. leave at all costs). Some argue that it would be better to leave now and later break the terms of the WA and ride-out the international condemnation.

I used to like Seumas Milne. He’s turned out to be a very strange little man.

WIth good negotiation / good will, we could retain all / almost all optouts - even the promise to join the Euro in a far distant future of actually being able to satisfy the criteria, might be wived exceptionally as a unique case of an ex-member

There’s no goodwill left. I don’t think anyone believes the above any more.

If we left after all this belligerence and kerfuffle you can be sure there will be penalties on rejoin. We will never get the deal we had and why should we.

Talkin yes, that's the crux of it. I have a horrible feeling Milne will be much harder to get rid of than Corbyn.

Quite a powerful front page. I hope the lurker Leavers take stock.

tatiana Fortunately, we don't have to depend on "goodwill", but on self-interest

The EU are sufficiently adult that if it is in their interests to let the Uk rejoin under current terms, then they will do so.
I know Brexit politicians are in a perpetual flounce, but that's not the EU norm

Nope the Leavers won't take stock - that will be the fault of the Frogs! If not the Frogs then the Krauts will get the blame for something, whatever.

The EU are sufficiently adult that if it is in their interests to let the Uk rejoin under current terms, then they will do so.

As a whole yes. But in a "walk at the pace of the slowest" situation, the national governments might find themselves under pressure from their electorates to not give the UK an easy ride. Especially if there are rabble-rousing Farage-a-likes that think they can may political capital from "being tough" on the UK.

Spain, for example. I'm sure there are some politicians who would be very popular if they suggested a UK re-entry to the EU should be contingent upon "sorting out" Gibraltar ...

Intriguingly, the wheels are starting to rattle on Trump-mania ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47472282

The US trade gap with the rest of the world jumped to a 10-year high of $621bn (£472.5bn) last year, dealing a blow to President Donald Trump's deficit reduction plan.

(contd)

TL;DR - cutting domestic taxes just boosted imports. So much for trickle down economics (which always sounded a little like an accident at a urinal ....)

Terrifyingly I know people who really do think that the EU will "blink" at the last moment.

That "they need us more than we need them".

These are the same people who then go on to say "what will be will be"/"I've stopped watching the news"/"nothing we can do"....

{Spain, for example. I'm sure there are some politicians who would be very popular if they suggested a UK re-entry to the EU should be contingent upon "sorting out" Gibraltar ...}

I think I would expect this, and several other countries would happily join in.

Terrifyingly I know people who really do think that the EU will "blink" at the last moment.

As long as they aren't in power, who cares ? (Which is a great attitude to adopt with terminally thick Leavers ....)

{As long as they aren't in power, who cares ?}
That is a strange concept to be applying to the UK government at the moment. They may technically be in power but not in control.

That is a strange concept to be applying to the UK government at the moment. They may technically be in power but not in control.

True. But it's fun to deflate a Leaver who tells you what their view is, and point out that certainly isn't what is happening ...

Gawd, at what point do we admit collectively that the wheels have fallen off this thing? In fact, it's not just the wheels, the engine has fallen through the floor, and the exhaust is scraping along the road behind us.

wherearemychickens
As good as that??