Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

BigChocFrenzy
Agree that it often appears like the whole leave movement was nihilistic in nature and characterised by dissatisfaction with the status quo and a strong desire to break it (regardless of cost) and rebuild (though no consensus on what and how to rebuild). Even the North's, who fully understand the consequences of the WA and no-deal outcomes deemed the chaos 'worth-it' for the being out of the EU.

The first signs I've seen of some limits to that nihilism from the hard-leave camp are on the comments below that conservativehome article mentioned earlier. Many of the contributors there seem primarily concerned with returning control of EU competencies to the UK. They recognise that the WA actually doesn't do that and the backstop actually cedes control indefinitely to the EU. They also understand that the backstop will very likely be triggered and they don't trust the EU to work in good faith with the UK on a resolution to get out of it. Many would prefer to revoke A50, re-group and re-plan before re-issuing A50. To me this is the first positive and realistic attempt to protect the UK national interest that I've seen from the hard-leave camp and shows that there is some limits to the nihilism.

I think the actively making it harder to claim maintenance by making mediation mandatory (imagine if I had been a DV victim?) and I realised they didn't care he wasn't declaring his full earnings (tax evasion anyone?) just made me realise who the child maintenance bodies are protecting. I can't see how this is worthwhile for society in any way shape or form.

Anyway... will be interesting to see Fox and Gove at loggerheads if talk of tariffs doesn't also cover regulations. I think we should get some public entertainment out of it and create a WWF style arena for future political confrontations . Maybe we could do without the sparkly pants though mind bleach required.

Many would prefer to revoke A50, re-group and re-plan before re-issuing A50. To me this is the first positive and realistic attempt to protect the UK national interest that I've seen from the hard-leave camp and shows that there is some limits to the nihilism.

So they spend 40 years bellyaching about the EEC/EU. When the vote goes their way they can't be bothered to say what they want from Leave. May puts a Leaver in charge of negotiations who can't trouble himself to turn up to negotiations and strops out like a toddler. So now let's revoke so that we can have another go at messing things up. I think 43 years is enough and it's time the Leaver leaders took a running jump.

I see it all the time at the foodbank.

They make claiming for any reason so utterly soul destroying and mentally draining that many just give up.

Really, this is all 20 years too late. The fin-de-siecle vibe was 1999.

.

No the world is not looking on with admiration as the UK strides towards Britannia Unchained

e.g. Der Spiegel's biting analysis from last year, typical of the EU and world view of this clusterfuck:

Watching a Country Make a Fool of Itself

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html

No country in the world has cultivated arrogance the way Britain has.
But the sad truth is:
The former global power can't even find its way to the door without tripping over its feet.

{Many would prefer to revoke A50, re-group and re-plan before re-issuing A50. To me this is the first positive and realistic attempt to protect the UK national interest that I've seen from the hard-leave camp and shows that there is some limits to the nihilism.}

No, the UK needs to leave, by the least damaging way possible.
40 odd years of carping and 'not quite joining in' is just corrosive and the EU needs proper supporters not whinging wreckers who have the wrong ethos. Besides, the UK can really fly now by not being shackled to the EU. Icarus comes to mind, but it gives the Brexiteers and leave voters chance to show off their brilliance.
Since Leavers have trashed my savings, pension and healthcare rights among other things, I hope they have the decency to actually leave on 29 March. Thank you.

Brexit: Government to slash up to 90% of trade tariffs if UK leaves EU with no deal

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-government-to-slash-up-to-90-of-trade-tariffs-if-uk-leaves-eu-with-no-deal-11656093

According to government sources the 10-20% of more sensitive items which will retain their protection includes
cars, beef, lamb, dairy and some lines of textiles.

BUT
of course other countries won't slash their tariffs on UK goods .... because why should they ?
AND
other countries won't be in much of a hurry to do trade deals wih the UK if they already have the best deal possible - zero / v low tariffs - for many of their own exports

Yes Big I wonder when Gove and Fox are going to publicly fall out over this? Severe lack of communication going on here. Couldn't have happened to a nicer couple, obvs!

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/03/06/home_office_windrush_data_slammed_mps/

Key excerpt:

The PAC report condemned not only the failures that allowed the problem to arise, but also the government's inaction to help these people – and warned that poor data management processes could pose a risk for European Union citizens who are applying for settled status in the UK ahead of Brexit.

No unicorn out of Cox's hat:

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge
_
Commission spokesman:
'Barnier informed Commissioners that while the talks take place in a constructive atmosphere, discussions have been difficult._

No solution has been identified at this point which is consistent with the WA, ^ including the protocol on NI which won't be reopened.'^

Reminscent of a fly trapped in a bottle ....

So if the Brexiteer headbangers in the Tory party are quietly considering a revoke and regroup approach, how will they sell that to the Farages of this world ?

John Harris@johnharris1969

With what? Tanks?

If the descent of British politics has a face, it is Gavin Williamson's.

< imo, it's Grayson, but there are multiple contenders >
...........
SUN: Military is ‘ready to respond’ to help fight Britain’s knife crime crisis, Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson reveals

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8570065/knife-crime-defence-secretary-gavin-williamson-military/

< Oops, autocorrect > Grayling

With what? Tanks?

As one who remembers the T.Blair attempt to ape Branson, riding around Heathrow in a tank, why not ?

No hint of a suggestion that the solution to the knife crime hysteria might involve complexity and ownership of the problem where it's due ?

Just had an email from writetothem chasing up the letter I sent my MP a couple of weeks back.

I was pleased to be able to click the "yes they replied" green light button. All goes towards a measure of whathefuckdotheydoallday? index.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/06/brexit-government-accused-of-keeping-bonfire-of-the-tariffs-secret-to-avoid-no-deal

The government is under fire over a “secret” plan to cut up to 90% of tariffs in the event of a no-deal Brexit,
after Liam Fox confirmed details would not be released until after MPs vote on Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement next week.
.....
Britain currently has tariff-free access to EU markets and benefits from the bloc’s trade deals with other countries.
But UK exports will automatically face EU tariffs if it crashes out of the union on 29 March without transition arrangements.

Businesses want to know whether Britain, the world’s fifth-largest economy, will impose reciprocal tariffs on imports from the EU.
If not, tariffs would have to be lifted on imported goods from most other countries under World Trade Organization rules.

Anna Turley, a Labour MP on the business, energy and industrial strategy select committee, said the reported tariff cuts were “unbelievable”.

“Is the government giving up all pretence of Britain being able to make anything any more?
This will open the door to floods of imports, from steel to ceramics,” she tweeted.

Looks like Minford's plan, with just some selected groups of farmers & businesses saved

The plan is to invoke again, following a GE the Tories are expected to win comfortably.
Indeed, Corbyn might do it, if he got in.

However, unless the UK drops its FOM & ECJ red lines this time, after invoking,

there would be no further negotiations:
the EU would just plonk this same WA on the table and wait out the 2 years again

This is why most Brexiters don't favour Revoking and then Invoking

The only ones who do are
either
those who always wanted - or who have now accepted - staying in the SIngle Market
or
the batshit Ultras who think it will be different next time
" the definition of insanity: doing the same thing again, expecting differnt results"

Another question to ponder (I have no answers).

If we end up in an extension situation, how would A50 revocation work - if at all ?

Wargaming (again) ...

Assuming the UK does crash out with no deal (where my £1 is staked) and we have a pretty quick snowballing of Bad Things Happening, leading to an almost unanimous clamour from MPs to "do something" as they suddenly realise they might have to face their constituents and no amount of "will of the people" will quell the pitchforks ....

assuming all that, what are the issues/possibility/ramifications of the UK and EU suddenly discovering a lost page of the treaty that allows a post Brexit revocation of A50 ?