Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Luciana Berger (ind) also abstained.

David Davis voted for Cooper, so did DUP’s Gavin Robinson - both look like errors

Oh joy! I think I've just climaxed reading that.

They don't even know what they are voting for any more!

DUP abstained? Was it the 9% off NI GDP? They do seem obsessed with money, almost as much as with religion.

The irony of someone voting in the HoC on something they don't understand about Brexit is a sign the universe must be eating itself.

9.1% off NI economy. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/781768/Implications_for_Business_and_Trade_of_a_No_Deal_Exit_on_29_March_2019.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1u-epoYKq1onyd3CzaTZG21GevmxzJSFysmPbh4l8CLPjY1vUxuutTpMU Love the way the report has been titled. {insert title of report}

Cooper seems to be owning the sensible, cross-party stuff and doing it in a non drama queen way (Ok, yes Mrs May, you can have another week, but really, we all know nothing will come of it) so Labour pushing in a pincer movement. The SNP and Labour amendments were never going to pass because it was the SNP and Labour promoting them. So relieved she actually put the amendment to the vote.

Totally lost here ... understanding what the fuck is going on with Brexit is a full time job these days.

I'm now having to tell work contacts that I am happy to organise meetings during our industry get-together in May but I can't 100% commit to turning up until we know what's going on with Brexit.

What a farce.

Robert Peston@peston
This is so interesting. Considerably more Labour MPs than Tories voted for ⁦*@theresa*_may⁩’s new policy to allow MPs to delay Brexit. So which party is more divided on Brexit? And has she got a hope of getting her tweaked Brexit deal approved by Parliament?

just rewinding on this. MORE Labour MPs voted for a government backed amendment than the government's own MPs!

Anna Soubry MP@Anna_Soubry

@DerbyChrisW has only the one ability - to unite all decent MPs in regarding him as utterly odious #nastypieceofwork #antisemtism

PMK

14 March is when MPs vote for an extension

BBC Politicss@BBCPolitics*

#Brexit: What happens next?

These are the key dates next month:

Oh look a distraction.

Remembering that the report with no name says The Government is encouraging Member States to reciprocate the rightly generous offer that the UK has made to resident EU nationals

Was Costa necessary?

PMK, hurrah for Westminstenders until at lease June, maybe.

No deal is still the default even if we request an extension

I assumed that Parliament/PM had actively to stop No Deal, but does requesting an extension override the date listed?

PMK. My MP voted against Cooper amendment, sadly i’m Not surprised. .

Isn't there another meaningful vote on the deal before the extension vote?

And whilst Cohen is distracting America over trump this just happened:

Politico @politico
BREAKING: House passes bill to require universal background checks on gun sales

The Democratic-majority House passed legislation mandating federal criminal background checks on all gun sales, including private transactions, in the most high-profile congressional vote on gun control in decades
t.co/oWMIL5fpth

Not Brexit. Nor even related.

But tonight almost feels like the stars have returned to where they should be!

Isn't there another meaningful vote on the deal before the extension vote?

Yes.

And its still unlikely to pass.

The rebellion by the ERG tonight was making a point about that.

So, if Labour will be pushing for a people's vote, when will the vote on that take place?

My head's spinning trying to follow what is happening when.

I'm so damn confused, yet again. So the Cooper amendment passed, hugely. But in actual fact what on earth does it do? It appears to be a vote in favour of having more votes, and doesn't actually mean the ruling out of No Deal, or definitely requesting an extension (which I personally am not keen on because "It's a Trap!"), etc?

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.
I'll believe it when I see it

Could I get this clear - May voted for the Cooper amendment, which means Parliament needs to vote for an extension, but May has ruled out asking for an extension and has declared that we will be leaving on 29th March? So May voted for something she has ruled out? Did she do a David Davis and walk through the wrong lobby?

@Mistigri tell me about it! My mum said today "don't you get fed up of looking at your phone?" I replied that Brexit stuff moves so quickly that if I don't frequently check then I miss what's going on and am lost. Some threads I have to give up on but will skim them check a couple of news sources, google things I don't understand (where there's answers that is ) and try to keep abreast of it all. I'm new to politics and it's been a steep learning curve. I'm not afraid to hold my hands up and say I don't understand and this thread is great for providing explanations without implying that the asker must be thick to not know. I'm eternally grateful to all the regulars for their far superior knowledge-@BigChocFrenzy @RedToothBrush in particular. How do you know all this stuff?

I don't do twitter and think that might help me keep up to date but I think my head would explode if I ventured there.

@peregrina I must admit I am no expert.
But now May can say to ERG if you want to Leave next month vote for my Deal.
If you don’t it will be delayed and may not happen