Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

The Cooper amendment just means Parliament needs to vote for or against an extension. So ....either May thinks Parliament will vote against an extension or.... ( unlikely) she has finally stopped her many attempts to circumvent Parliamentary process?

.

From John Crace:
The prime minister mumbled something almost unintelligible – English is her second language, bollocks being her first...
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/27/cast-of-grotesques-grind-out-another-day-in-westminsters-truman-show?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

@DangermousesSidekick What do you mean by Chris Williamson is a bit p'd off, like most of us?

I'm glad it's not just me that's confused. I often feel like the thick cousin on this thread
I'd say that we are a pretty intelligent bunch on here so if we are confused, we who have lived and breathed brexit on this thread for months (years for some), then what hope has the general public got?

The PV march on the 23rd is now very important. Regardless of what happens in the meantime, a big demonstration of anti-no-deal is crucial. Even if the idea of a PV is dangerous - it’s an expression of disapproval against crashing out.

peregrina She was forced - under threat of ministerial resignations - to support the Cooper Amendment.

This ensures she has to keep her promise to let MPs vote on an extension on 14 March

If MPs then vote for an extension - which presumably they will now - then she will have to request an extension.
Politically and maybe legally, it would be very difficult to ignore that vote

Of course, it is unlikely that MPs would order her to accept any EU conditions,
but hopefully there would be none for short one, unless they are too worried about a late 2nd extension request & the EP elections.

So, May has already in principle given up on the extension;
her red line is now to keep it a short one, to avoid having to hold MEP elections.

So, if Labour will be pushing for a people's vote, when will the vote on that take place?
Kyle-Wilson Amendment. March 12th. Apparently

So the Cooper amendment passed, hugely. But in actual fact what on earth does it do? It appears to be a vote in favour of having more votes, and doesn't actually mean the ruling out of No Deal, or definitely requesting an extension
Makes May have to come to the HoC and explain herself if her deal fails and says the HoC has to vote on what to do next instead of No Deal. May has more or less agreed to it, by having votes on the 13th and 14th March which do what Cooper Boles wanted to do. No it doesn't mean an extension, but May was forced to acquiese and agree to this otherwise she would have lost many ministers through resignation which would threaten her position as PM. An extension is now likely as there is a parliamentary majority for it if push comes to shove. Politically its now difficult to avoid for political and practical reasons, regardless of the ERG.

but May has ruled out asking for an extension and has declared that we will be leaving on 29th March?
May has not ruled out an extension. Her wording in recent weeks has been tricksey. Laura K pointed out that may has never ever said that there was no chance of an extension. Her actions today and yesterday was an admission that an extension IS a possibility, just cos parliamentary maths.

How do you know all this stuff?
It helps to be a news nerd and have a degree which touched on politics. I just remember things. This is not always good.

I agree Sparkly it's hard to keep up! I've been here quite a long time but I think it's getting even more confusing.

I wonder if when May requests an extension, the EU might say, 'yes but you must run EU elections, in case you're still not ready to go on 1st July'. (To avoid a dreadful situation like e.g. being nearly ready to leave on 1st July, but crashing out because of having no MEPs.)

I am another one struggling to keep up, and rely on this thread to explain what happened. I am really pleased about the Cooper amendment, but isn't it very similar to the amendment that was voted down about two weeks ago? Except today it was a formalisation of TM's "promise" made yesterday. Why has it taken them so long to start to see sense? I don't include TM in that- she is still ridiculously deluded.

am I missing something ...
why would the EU give an extension for just more can kicking ?

tomorrows newspapers largely dominated by trump story. not much about brexit.

apart from the mail going after corbyn.

But this is a cracker

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: ERG splits - hardliners accuse Jacob Rees-Mogg of softening Brexit demands to help pal Boris become PM (with @steve_hawkes)
www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8526842/brexit-jacob-rees-mogg-demands-boris-johnson/
Jacob Rees-Mogg accused of softening demands on Theresa May’s Brexit deal to help pal Boris Johnson become PM

Mr Rees-Mogg has shifted his position on the Irish backstop significantly closer to No10’s

The Somerset MP also told the Financial Times that he is no longer insisting that the “Irish backstop” must be scrapped altogether.

Instead, Mr Rees-Mogg said on Wednesday he will be satisfied with “a clear date in which the backstop ends, in the lifetime of this Parliament”.

Sources within the group say his intervention “seriously p*ed off” the ERG’s other leading figure, ex-Brexit Minister Steve Baker who takes a harder line.

and

One senior ERG MP told The Sun: “Jacob and Boris want a deal, and they want to vote for one.

“They don’t want to be seen as the people responsible for smashing the Tory party in two, not least because it would be terminal for Boris’s leadership hopes”.

Tory ministers also suspect Boris’s long-held ambition to get into No10 was behind his close ally Mr Rees-Mogg’s shift on Wednesday.

A pro-Brexit Cabinet minister added: “Boris needs a Phase 2 of Brexit to give him a reason to be leader.

“No deal means no future trade deal, and then there’s nothing left for him to do on Brexit.”

Interesting...

and

Another Leave-backing minister told The Sun that the ERG are now “split in about five different ways”

And it’s still all about ambition.........

@Autumn a I know someone who does those subtitles. They usually subtitle them live and use dictation software, sometimes the software throws up weird things and because it's live they have a split second to correct it before it goes out. So sometimes, weird things get through.

JRM's demand for the backstop to have an end date is not going to happen
If he insists on that, then he hasn't shifted wrt the backstop.

However, some in the ERG let slip that the backstop is only #1 on their list of demands, so maybe they are angry he has dropped those ones.

I'm visually disabled, so I gave up ages ago on subtitles for live events;
I just read the rolling commentary on the news sites - or I increasingly rely on Westministenders !

Only subtitles for prerecorded TV, DVDs etc are reliable

PMK

Talk A short extension doesn't inconvenience the EU too much and in fact gives them more time for No Deal prepping.
They really want to avoid No Deal if possible, so might well give it this one last chance

It's also about image: they want to show they are giving the UK every chance to Brexit

However, a longer extension that runs into the next EP would mean they set conditions;
at a minimum participating in the EP elections

Germany would probably approve of any extension, but sounds like France & Spain might need persuading

14 March is when MPs vote for an extension

So, in theory, no deal is still an option by then? Serious stockpiling will have started by then.

I think that this evenings votes are not binding for the government. Can anyone confirm if this is correct.

EU are likely to allow UK a short extension because as well as making them look very reasonable they can charge us for it.

There will be no extension. I'm betting on TM getting her deal through by 2 votes.