Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

Cos no one has the guts to.

Speaking of a special places in hell..(can't be too specific because police are now involved). My DH works for a company that has been supervising contractors working at a school over the weekend. At some point after my husband's colleague left for the day the school was cleared out of several thousand pounds worth of their Brexit stockpile which they had put aside for the pupils. Everything to do with Brexit is giving me anxiety. Apart from here in the community of remainers on Mumsnet, it's hard not to focus on the fact that Brexit is bringing out the worst in some people.

Clavinova
{He added that the UK was welcome to join the pacific trade pact, CTTPP, as it is now called, but that a bilateral trade deal with Japan would likely be agreed sooner.}
Before you get too excited, a deal can't be 'better' than the EU gets, although it may be fairly close. Damn those WTO rules.
You also need to consider what commodities are to be traded. Fresh fruit and veg from Japan won't work. So while a 'positive' you need to be wary of the details. A 'quick' deal may actually mean 2 or 3 years rather than 7 or 8.

@mystakenidentity that's fucking awful. They stole from kids? Special place in hell indeed.

RTB you are so right. But why does it have to take guts when its all so fucking obvious? I'd have the guts, but then I'm not a politician so what do I know..

Clavinova
Before you get too excited

I'm not getting excited - I was posting a correction.
The quotes in the link didn't in any way suggest; Japan making it clear we're on our own.

Funny how everyone else thought dodgy states were elsewhere. The only people arrested when journalists did research on something fishy in the state of NI under auspices of UK, were the journalists. Kafka not so far away, now.

twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1101744525326893056

Also, possibilities of moderate nationalists in NI giving up on all hope of the current lop sidedness, Stormont vacuum and drag towards direct rule. May lean towards a United Ireland. Of course, DUP want direct rule now that Unionists have lost their majority at Stormont. And demographics not in their favour.

members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/03/04/northern-ireland/content.html?sig=Tdj7hPfDMo1W6mV9ds7vwxchU-5OltdZpOkdYKgmPJs&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=4March19&utm_content=The_death_of_compromise

The WA isn't good for the UK, any form of leaving is bad but the WA is possibly the least bad.
The original objections are probably because it forces the UK to actually negotiate hard and penalises the UK for delaying. With a 'fired up' team ready to sit down on 30 March it may not be too bad, getting the necessary work done as quickly as possible.
The objections are probably that it is a 'Brussels WA' and not a 'red white and blue' WA and that buggering around and delaying negotiations will stuff the UK thoroughly. It is a routemap to leave, not a plan to 'bugger around indefinitely'.
Had the UK, DDavies, and the others actually produced a WA that did not deliberately cross all the EU's understandable red lines and there had been an attitude of respectful negotiation, things could have been a lot different. Quite how the UK think they will get decent deals from anyone having seen this farce is anyone's guess.

Has anyone considered the possibility that the UK does pass the WA, and then (almost immediately) manages to breach it ?

That is just if there is an orderly Brexit, n'est ce pas? If nobody knows the lay of the land, it will take longer. The temporary rollovers were if there was an orderly Brexit with withdrawal agreement.

DGR, what are you meaning by breaching it, which aspects?

PMK. This is all extremely depressing, and I’m in a state of utter disbelief at how extraordinarily incompetent our ‘government’ is proving itself to be.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3524428-Westminstenders-Waiting-for-the-vote-that-never-comes?watched=1

Has anyone considered the possibility that the UK does pass the WA, and then (almost immediately) manages to breach it ?

Don't give 'em ideas! They'll think its a cracking one.

DGR - I don't think that's a possibility ...... that's a certainty

Disillusioned and cynical, moi?

www.thenational.ae/uae/dp-world-slams-impact-of-brexit-wrangling-on-uk-economy-1.824989

Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, the Dubai-based chairman of DP World, met Liam Fox at the World Government Summit in Dubai recently - where he said DP World's two modern ports on the English coastline were willing to offset any disruption after the March 29 deadline to quit the EU.

He's just about summed up the current situation;

"Our problem is the indecisiveness of the government," he said.

"We don't care as businessmen whether they have Brexit, or Brexit with an agreement, or Brexit with a good agreement, or Brexit with a bad agreement.Once they decide, as businessmen, we are capable of running our business once all this basically indecisive environment disappears."

"After the briefing with Mr Fox, Mr bin Sulayem said the operator's two terminals in the UK, at the deep-sea ports of Essex-based London Gateway and Southampton on the south coast, were well-placed to cope with Brexit disruption."

"We confirmed our ability to react immediately; there will not be any congestion," a Dubai official told the Financial Times at the summit."

"Spare capacity at London Gateway, DP World’s deep-sea port at the mouth of the River Thames, could be used to deal with Brexit bottlenecks, senior executives told The National."

"We’ve got the capacity to soak up the demand. If there’s a demand, we can do it at short notice.”

"In 2018 London Gateway’s three berths dealt with just over 1.3 million twenty foot containers–but has the capacity to work with 2.4 million should there be a sharp spike."

"An advanced customs system also means goods can move through comparatively quickly."

"An adjoining logistics park, the largest in Europe, is just 20 per cent occupied and could also be used for stockpiling if necessary."

I see that Lidl have a large distribution warehouse in the logistics park.

Mymistakenidentity, that's disgusting that people would steal from kids. I'm also intrigued that a school is stockpiling, I work in a school and I'm not aware of any Brexit planning, and even if we wanted to I'm not sure there's any spare money too. And yet it would be so so useful if we could. I think for the mental health of kids it would be awesome if school carried on unchanged after Brexit even if they saw upheaval elsewhere in their lives. Open as usual, school dinners as usual.

I guess that is good news Clavinova as long as there no holds up at their Rotterdam or Le Havre ports

frumpety
No doubt you will be disappointed if there isn't!

Clavinova
There obviously is capacity but the actual problem is than nothing is organised so no one knows what the hell is going on.
The capacity to shift huge numbers of containers is no good if the goods arrive by trucks on Ro Ro ferries. The fact that the documentation isn't prepared yet won't help either.
Of course business will have to sort out the shitshow that the government is conducting, but making it financially 'better' than it was, which is what the Vote Leave campaign promised, is very unlikely, for many years. No one has managed to suggest what large scale industry is about to spring up in the UK to replace car production and a significant chunk of the finance industry. Until you can answer this it is just rearranging the deckchairs.

Wrt lambs ... I find it hard to understand how Ireland's Minister for Agriculture has spent the last few years jetting all over the world signing agreements with China, Saudi Arabia and other countries to export Irish meat products abroad - while obv still a member of the EU - but British farmers are looking at the prospect of burning millions of animals.

If Ireland can negotiate these deals why can't the British government? The UK is still in the EU after all.

Has this already been shared?

twitter.com/thescepticisle/status/1102590752717185024?s=21

Ben Kelly (long-time and once prominent liberal leaver) aka TheScepticIsle on Brexiteer delusion re no deal.

Interesting read. He is btw also sharing evidence that brexiters are coming around to the idea that a long extension is better than May's deal.

Don't be silly Mathanxiety

The EU rules are specifically written to make it difficult, nay impossible, for the UK to export, while making it easy for other EU countries to export

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a3510056-Put-it-to-the-People-March-23rd-March

coach info for People's march

Brexit is in 4 weeks. Any containers coming from afar would need to be floating their way to us already

Brexit is in 4 weeks. Any containers coming from afar would need to be floating their way to us already

Indeed - or we might all die of starvation on 30th March.