Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

If Ireland can negotiate these deals why can't the British government?

It seems we have made a few deals - but not the continuity trade agreements - yet;

www.gov.uk/government/news/export-boost-for-uk-industry-as-india-opens-market-to-british-sheep-meat

www.gov.uk/government/news/japan-opens-market-to-british-beef-and-lamb

Containers are fine for non-urgent goods coming from further afield

That doesn't help the ro-ro traffic, Dover-Calais, which is a vital route for importing fresh food, JIT components etc,

Also, for goods we are exporting on journeys taking weeks, the customers now don't know if they will have to suffer WTO tariffs and NTBs (Non-Tarfiff Barriers), because they don't know if / when Brexit will happen.

British exporters are already losing business over this, because customers are choosing to buy from other countries where they know what they have to pay

The EU has about 40 FTAs covering 60-70 countries covering 635 million people, 1/3 of global GDP
plus about 800 other trade deals such as MRAs (Mutual Recognition Agreements) that enable much easier trade with other countries.

Liam Fox has only managed to create a tiny % of the new trade deals we need

• remember he said back in 2017 that we would have all the existing trade deals carried over by Brexit Day

either with economic minnows like the Faroes, where we export about 3 million annually - that's million, not billion.

or deals covering only small niche sectors of the economy, as with the India deal linked above

Brexit: UK has rolled over just £16bn out of £117bn trade deals

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/13/brexit-uk-trade-deals-eu

Liam Fox has agreed deals with only seven of 69 countries covered by EU arrangements

But he's not the most incompetent Tory minister.
That prize must go to ...

Failing Grayling, whose 12 cockups have cost British taxpayers 2.7 billion pounds

Overseas customers interested in British meat are now cancelling orders and buying their produce elsewhere due to the lack of clarity around Brexit

https://www.farminguk.com/news/Overseas-buyers-cancel-British-meat-orders-due-to-Brexit_51451.html

Actually Clavinova I meant as we aren't in EU and can't get a better trade deal, the last few lines aren't exactly encouraging - we are going to be bent over by Japan in any trade deal.

BigChoc I just hope Fox understands that the countries putting trust in our meat exports won't feel the same if we start importing from USA. I strongly suspect this is why he is not allowing FOI for the US meetings he is having.

Re CPTPP doesn't make sense for Britain And the balance of advantage is obvious on trade as well. Around 8% of British exports go to the 11 countries of the CPTPP; over 40% to the 27 countries of the EU. The traditional arguments about trade – that geography and gravity matter more than politics – suggest that these proportions are unlikely to change radically in the short to medium term. Moreover, the EU has or is negotiating free trade deals with nine of the 11 countries in the CPTPP already
...and then there's Australia's response to us joining.

I think more pleasantly surprised than disappointed Clavinova.

I voted to remain in the EU because I couldn't see how leaving would fix the things people were angry about. Doesn't mean I don't agree with the anger those people feel, just I point the finger of blame in a different direction. So I want the same things as the vast majority of people who voted leave, we simply disagree on the best way of achieving it.
Now if the current Government had been sensible, pragmatic or even just not completely incompetent, these threads very likely wouldn't exist.

You can cut and paste to your hearts content and I love a bit of C&P myself < quickly googles in case that is a euphemism for something rude > but the fact still stands that there is less than a month to go and nobody, you , me , business, the civil service or the government have any bloody clue as the outcome.

I'm not sure I'm believing my ears this morning! Apparently us pensioners who claim PIP will no longer have to be reassessed! It is so welcome for many. It was said that it has always been unfair. Whether the promise of this is just another carrot by the Tories I don't know. What I do know is what I went through last year. Having DLA took away because I had survived more than 6 months, having to change to PIPs 3 months before I retired and knowing they could not process me in time, , having to get MP involved, all while having chemo, almost did me in! I have been registered disabled since 2009 even working whilst severely disabled until I could work no longer in 2011. I was awarded DLA for life at the time but still had to go through reassessment twice in last 6 years. Soooo, as with all Tory promises I will believe it when I see it!

About bloody time Sos , but as you say I will believe it when it happens, bit like Brexit

All these slightly optimistic 'new' trade figures and bandying around GDP and 'trade' is severely lacking in the detail and of massive importance is what is traded and where it comes from. Much of the world trade is in a 'status quo', there are long established trade routes, techniques and partners for almost every commodity that each country currently buys. This has taken a couple of hundred years to develop and the prospect of ripping this up overnight for the benefit of the UK is just ridiculous.
Fresh tomatoes from Spain. OK cancel Spain, so where else can produce the quantity that the UK buys IMMEDIATELY that can get from vine to supermarket in a day? And to then expect them to be cheaper, but the same variety and quality you are truly in fairyland!
Now do even a simple analysis of the trade that the UK does currently, and consider what implications changing say 75% of this within a few months will do.
Peru could offer guinea pig steaks, could be a massive earner for them to replace say New Zealand lamb. You wouldn't get schools in England serving them although I believe they are tasty and a good size for a lunch.

Whether driven by supermarkets or customers I am not sure, but it is only the last few years when you have been able to buy fruit and veg that is not 'catwalk' perfect. Twisty carrots and other root veg, blemished fruit was simply wasted (at the cost of the growers) due to 'fussy' customers/buyers. Throwing healthy but 'unwanted' fish varieties back into the sea injured is another case of waste and reluctance of buyers to get something different.

I'm not sure I'm believing my ears this morning! Apparently us pensioners who claim PIP will no longer have to be reassessed!

That's not quite what the news says; which is disabled pensioners ....presumably at the expense of non-pensioners (like DW) with progressive conditions like MS ?

Notice also the small print that they want 1,000,000 more disabled people "in work" by 2027 ....

(posted too soon)

of course in Toryland, "in work" is really a synonym for "off benefits".

Master of stating the obvious Hunt says:
If this deal does not go through, then the only solution is to find a deal that will go through. That is the only way we are going to solve this issue. I think everyone globally knew this several years ago...

From the Guardian news that Tory MP's allowed free vote

Another quote from that article when Hut says

We had a very robust referendum campaign, in which claims were made, and indeed exaggerated claims were made on both sides of the debate.

He's still in Project Fear mode clearly!

And this is exactly why EU would be foolish to offer us a longer extension:

Martin Howe QC :

"Further, we would elect a new phalanx of MEPs, large numbers of whom would be Brexit supporters who would be robust in defending Britain’s interests and in disrupting the EU’s centralising plans."

I've felt for a while that the most rabid brexiteers are not content with leaving, what they really want is to get rid of the EU in its entirety.
Britain as Trojan horse.

Looks like some supermarkets are trying to figure a way to keep fresh salad in shops with shop grown salads. Wonder what the farmers think of that?

Clavinova
Funny that the man from DP world does not seem to know about the Millbrook roundabout

Fresh tomatoes from Spain. OK cancel Spain, so where else can produce the quantity that the UK buys IMMEDIATELY that can get from vine to supermarket in a day? And to then expect them to be cheaper, but the same variety and quality you are truly in fairyland!

Supermarket tomatoes in the UK are shit. Tasteless blobs of water, a stark example of the dangerous of selling by weight, not by quality, and growing to the cheapest possible margins.

I joked about it previously, but some customers at the hydroponics superstores really are growing their own tomatoes ...