Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

The SNP amendment vote suggests that many are prepared to leave with no deal but let's hope a delay will prevent that. Still hoping for revoke though.

The overwhelming vote means that May will (almost certainly) request the EU to allow a short extension
She is unlikely to ask for a long one, which would have EU conditions

Extending Article 50: One step too far for the EU?

This is the analysis of the influential European Policy centre
They think a short extension - to avoid EP elections - would be acceptable
but not a 21-month extension

http://www.epc.eu/pubdetails.php?catt_id=4&pub_id=9047

I think most MPs just vote against anything the SNP proposes

Pmk
I think costa is a hero for putting his head above the parapet- and TM et al are absolute wankers for forcing a resignation- only erg tories are allowed to think for themselves it

The SNP amendment vote suggests that many are prepared to leave with no deal

Incorrect.

They voted because of the party whip (and the promise of the government holding effectively the same vote on March 13th).

PMK

I'm going to suggest that until everything has been voted on and we have a chance to digest who voted which way (and who abstained) on each, it's nigh impossible to work out what any of this really means

pmk.

PMK

Ah I see. I remain hopeful then. Thanks

Lets be clear (as we can be) for everyone getting a bit excited. All the Cooper amendment does is say that parliament should have a vote on whether to request an extension.

It does not specify there will be an extension
It does not stop no deal
No deal is still the default even if we request an extension
It does not guarantee the EU will give us the extension we ask for on the terms we request

The size of the majority is encouraging and I'm pretty sure we'll now request some form of extension, but that's as far as this goes for now.

88 Tory MPS - predominantly Brexiteers - abstained on Govt backed Cooper amendment

Including Boris, Raab and JRM

So the 20 Tory MPs who voted against were even more batshit than those 3

Theoretically we could still go over the cliff, but after a slight stutter.

Still bloody awful position for May to have put us in.

As far as I can see (again, awaiting corrections), Cooper's amendment does not delay article 50. The Guardian says that it guarantees May’s promise to hold a vote on extending article 50, by paving the way for a bill to do that.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/27/from-a-labour-deal-to-a-jobs-fund-amendments-to-third-brexit-motion

xpost!

Does this mean no deal is off?

No. Deal or no deal votes are on 12th March.

So the 20 Tory MPs who voted against^

Included that power couple Esther McVey and Philip Davies

Do a majority in Westminster dislike the SNP? Because Cooper won hands down clear margin, I know it's a different amendment but it was a similar theme... no wonder SNP want independence.

I know nothing is definite but it illustrates that MPs recognise we are not ready to leave and that more time is needed. I just hope we can get no deal off the table at least.

Do we have a list of the Noes yet?
Just catching up.

Ian Dunt @iandunt
Interesting statement from Corbyn. Second referendum also policy against no-deal, not just May deal.

Suggests that if we get to May elections with no UK participation, Labour policy would have to switch to people's vote. And in that scenario, not impossible to imagine them securing enough other votes for it to win.

Given a choice between May's deal, no deal or to hell with it vote for the Labour amendment at the eleventh hour in May who knows which way a vote would go.

Anyway thank you for all the nice messages about the house. And time to celebrate a likely extension to Westminstenders not just A50!!! Yay (you can all groan with my approval!)

After that huge majority to have a vote on an extension, it would be astonishing / daft if MPs don't then vote for an extension.

That vote may include how long to ask for
but we really need some "if, then" loops for what happens if the EU would only approve a shorter / longer extension to what is requested

commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/616#noes

answered my own question.

Costa amendment passes unanimously: The EU should now listen and hopefully we will get proper protection of EU citizens in the U.K. and Brits in the EU, even in case of a No Deal.
It shouod also protect pensions on both sides...

Why on Earth TM never included Brits in the EU in the very first round if where Settled Status was agreed. I don’t know.

Look on the Commons Vote app kitten. Looks like my dyed in the wool Tory MP abstained. No surprise there though, he's a Brexiteer through and through. Might fire him another email again tomorrow now.

My Tory mp abstained as well. I expected to see him on the list of 20 tbh.