Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

My local radio is running a piece this morning about a local council redoing their school menu to emphasise local food in case supplies get tricky for their normal menu - they seem somewhat incredulous about it though.

Its ok everyone Bluntness100 on the other thread knows the score:

"You clearly know more than the government does if you’re so sure!"
*
The government knows this, I'm really surprised anyone in the U.K. doesn't, over 90 percent of MPs have stated they will categorically not allow no deal to go through, it's no secret. Read any political analysis and this is the one given,, the question is will her deal get through or will there be a delay.

No deal is all but formally off the table, and will be formally on the 13th if her deal doesn't get through. There is no doubt at all the amendment to reject no deal will pass if it's voted on on the 13th.*

Just seen that MPs have been awarded a 2.7% pay rise...so that's nice for them...

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/28/mps-above-inflation-pay-rise-sparks-angry-response-from-trade-unions-parliamentary-staff

Bold fail, sorry. Should all be in bold except the first sentence.

They should ask her if she's on any medication and if so, where does it come from and is she confident she will get it next month.

I can see in a couple of months time that these people with either go very very quiet, or will whine and whine. To which the answer will be, in puzzled innocence "I'm sorry, you voted Leave, you've got that, why are you unhappy?"

We like to call him George Useless here in his constituency.

That will explain why I've never heard of him before!

May said a few day ago about avoiding No Deal:

"The only way to do that is to revoke Article 50 (sic), which I shall not do, or agree a deal"

We must keep reminding everyone that
No Deal happens automatically unless the UK chooses a specific "something else"

MPs cannot vote to override international law

So they can only "categorically not allow No Deal" by voting for the WA
Otherwise, they are dependent on more powerful figures:

either on May making her biggest U-turn and Revoking

• v unlikely, as it would tear the Tories apart

or on May & the EU finding mutually acceptable terms for an extension

• which will just delay this cliff edge, unless it is a longer one for a PV or to renegotiate the PD

At this stage, the EU would not renegotiate the WA, even if the UK drops red lines,
but probably would agree to changing the PD to SM++ ..... if there is a broad UK political concensus for this.

Two different stories about Grayling’s failings today. Is there no end to his incompetence? Is he only still there because there’s no-one better?

Shipless ferry company:
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-47403653

Destruction of probation service:
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/probation-services-privatisation-costs-taxpayer-prisons-criminals-repeat-offenders-a8801861.html

David Henig @davidheniguk
The US have published negotiating objectives for a future UK trade deal, though they aren't UK specific, being substantially the same as a similar document for the EU. No country should negotiate on the basis of them as they aren't based on mutual benefit
t.co/ogiyXaX7u9

All the expected stuff is in there - remove barriers to US food, drug pricing in NHS, withdraw from European standards community, no trade deal with China, discourage commercial boycotts of Israel. Plus lots of irrelevant boilerplate on e.g. labour standards

Plus, there is no suggestion of particular benefits for the UK. Thus for example no special regulatory dialogue in financial services, at least there is no mention of trade deficit,s as we both think we run a surplus with the other

The respected Peterson Institute in the US called the similar objectives to an EU trade deal the "pursuit of one-way managed trade" which "holds little promise for a transatlantic deal". It would be a sign of terrible weakness to negotiate on this basis
piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/us-eu-trade-negotiations-daunting-mission

Sounds the best way to bankrupt the NHS and lead to its privatisation.

MPs have said what they don't want

However, the only way to get this is to specifically choose what they do want

If that requires May to do something, then they can only apply political pressure by voting for their choice, preferably by an overwhelming vote

After the mid-March votes, there almost certainly won't be enough time for legal measures to force May to take a particular action.
She would have to at least acquiesce to it

Otto English @otto_english
The sheer rank amateurism of the March to Leave website. Someone has taken screenshots of Google maps suggested route and once again made it possible for Seymour Butts and his friends to register

You'd have thought that they'd have learnt from the Brexit Party and 3000 Adolf Hitlers joining.

So I guess there will be 100,000 signed up to the Farage's vanity parade and then about 3000 will turn up.

I'm on my phone and have lost track of the thread, has this been posted yet?Fucking depressing!

Forage's vanity parade

What I hadn't heard about that. What price is a pint of milk these days? How the cat?'

FFS that poll is depressing. The problem is also there's an increased reactionary element now.

Parliament says they reject no deal - so the tell 'them' control mob now want the opposite. My definition politicians are not trusted which was part of the problem with Cameron endorsing remain.

Sounds the best way to bankrupt the NHS and lead to its privatisation.

I can just see the ERG collectively licking their lips and saying, Bring it on.

The trouble with that poll is its bias - e.g. leave and trade on WTO terms, with no mention of where they aren't applicable.

If he had a poll, "is leaving the EU more important than keeping your job" I doubt whether he would have quite so many takers.

Lonely that comment about the 'tell them' brigade is spot on.

It's why I think a PV is a terrible idea.

That Martin Lewis poll is more concerning (although depending on actual poll size) in that his 'followers' would be ones I would expect to be a bit more switched on than the average person in the street.

Actually, is it a real Martin Lewis poll. The question looks a bit woolly unless he has gone 'down market'.

Real Martin Lewis poll

I ve seen polls on pro brexit pages that have huge majorities to remain... all depends on who shares the poll to which FB groups, these things are all meaningless.

Hope so, but I really feel that people are even more polarised than before...so I really would not feel confident a new vote would solve anything. But it’s impossible not to hope, in the situation...
Ot: my energy company just wrote me to say they’re lowering their prices. And it’s 100% renewables....the cheapest I could find. If anyone needs a referral code, send me a PM ;-)

Cherin cant pm - could you pm me re code pl?

Ok re poll - nice bit of confirmation bias from me there!

Maybe it works if I just paste it here? Try
bulb.co.uk/refer/claudiaf8260?utm_campaign=account-referral-share&utm_medium=copy-link&utm_source=copy-button