Westminstenders: May's Deal or No Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight: Votes on Amendments after May's Stitch-Up Promise which might nerf the crucial Cooper-Boles amendment as its now deemed 'unnecessary'. I think voting starts very shortly. (They are just summing up now)

A - Corbyn's Brexit deal
K - SNP's, banning No Deal
C - Cooper-Letwin bill paving amendment (which they hope not to move)
B - Alberto Costa's EU citizens rights
F - Spelman/Dromey's to enshrine PM's Brexit extension promise

Corbyn's amendment. You can ignore. Its going to fail.

The SNPs amendment should in theory pass, but with the vote on the 13th March and the government whip, it might fail today.

Cooper-Letwin (or Cooper-Boles whichever you prefer) needs to pass to ensure May can't worm her way out of the current timetable but it looks unlikely to pass. If it does it would come into effect on the 13th March.

Costa's amendment is interesting as he was forced to resign in order to table it (and protect his parents who are EU citz) even though the government have now backed his amendment. His speech was striking in how he stressed it was about people not party politics.

Looking like Spelman has been withdrawn. So possible there will be no vote on it, as May has promised a vote on extension on the 14th March.

The battle now turns to how long the (almost inevitable) a50 extension will be.

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
Its still unlikely to pass.

Which would lead to Cooper-Boles coming into effect (if it passes) though it now has effectively been accepted by May though she might renege.

We now face a vote rejecting no deal on March 13th. Which should ban no deal.

This makes the all important vote effectively on March 14th which will be about the extension. The detail and amendments on this are important and will affect what happens next.

March 29th is probably no longer important as we won't be leaving then.

If we only are able to get a short extension (which the EU might refuse and insist on a longer one! But I doubt it) then the end of April begining of May is crucial. If we don't pass the legislation to take part in EU elections then May can dictate to the HoC and force her deal through as the only alternative to No Deal.

The EU elections fall on May 23-26.

The new parliament starts on the July 1st. This is now effectively the cliff edge if May has her way.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Abbreviation thread.

You should get a 50£ discount...

I've just PMed you Cherin but you've answered my question here so feel free to ignore :)

Twitter polls are nonsense. I see ones with huge majorities for remain and also ones with huge majorities for leave. People share them with like minded followers or people vote a certain way just to cause mischief, so they are skewed/totally unreliable for both remain and leave.

Joe Miller
‏*@JoeMillerJr*

WOW. The goverment has spent £33 MILLION to settle case with Eurotunnel over procurement of no deal Brexit ferry capacity.

Ian Dunt is still tweeting on Brexit - he came up in my feed this morning commenting on the dreadful Raab interview on R4

His claim that the EU has leveraged Ireland to trap us in the customs union is a lie. A bitter, morally reprehensible lie. And he knows it is, because he was at the negotiating table at the time. twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1101396886928400384

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/03/01/ibm_brexit_plan/

IBM is battening down the hatches in preparation for a potential no-deal Brexit next month, warning of implications for the movement of data and delays to products landing in the UK.

MPs have already shot down British Prime Minister Theresa May's withdrawal agreement and political declaration that had been endorsed by the EU. Politicians on both sides of the House don't want to leave with no deal but the final outcome remains uncertain.

As it stands, from 11pm on 29 March, the default position will be that EU legislation will no longer apply to Brits and there will be no transition period, one of the potential scenarios IBM planned for.

In this event, the UK will no longer have access to the four freedoms of the EU: movement of goods, services and data, labour and capital across borders.

(contd)

Nick Erdley is also off on a long thread about the potential break up of the Union. Inde ref 2 and border poll in Ireland as possible consequences of Brexit.
Are we meant to be surprised?

twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1101414025991258113

This article goes into the numbers of MPs May needs to convert to support her WA to get it through.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-01/how-theresa-may-might-just-pull-it-off-this-is-the-brexit-math

At this stage, the EU would not renegotiate the WA, even if the UK drops red lines

It's the one scenario that would underpin an extension - more time to renegotiate.

However I suspect it would need a fuck of a lot more than Theresa May calling up Barnier and saying as much. There would need to be some sort of legally binding MoU clearly delineating the new position (i.e. which red lines have now gone) before anything actually happened.

On the basis I can't see that happening, we are still talking no deal a day closer than yesterday.

Whatever happened to the poster who seemed to make vague threats if there were to be a revoke ? Or was I way off beam in my reading of their comment ?

Ian Blackford had said at the talk I went to last week that he anticipated that Nicola would be asking for a Section 30 notice (ie the right to hold an Independence referendum) "within the next few months".

He did however say that she fully expects the request to be refused, but that this is as much for international consumption as for internal politics, keeping the Indy supporters happy. (He might not have used exactly those words, but that's the impression I got).

Given the international eyes on the clusterfuck of UK politics, the appearance of democracy or lack of it has longer term implications and could well helpful to the independence movement (which is not just about the SNP )

Exactly DG - in a way we are more likely to No Deal now because the alternatives have been watered down. As I keep saying we don't know what May would ask for as a reason for an extension and i'd not put it past her to fuck it up deliberately to ensure we leave on 29th March.
The wording of her extension request is all important, as she will likely ask for the moon to extend and EU will say no. Then she can say she asked but nasty EU etc etc and blame them and HoC for not accepting her deal for the inevitable crash out.

The post about USA trade requests is the same as TTIP - something a few leavers keep saying they voted Leave to avoid idiots didn't understand it was only because we were part of the bloc it was being rejected without any issue. When we are alone and needing trade we are vulnerable to it, especially with Fox/Raab/Mogg etc at the helm.

Indeed LonelyandTiredAndLow - before the Referendum I had arguments with a number of SNP pro-Leavers on exactly that point . They were voting Leave because they were really, really anti TTIP - but not informed enough to know that it was the other EU countries who were blocking it (and in fact it was already dead in the water) while the UK Government had already said that it was happy to sign it without further safeguards to our NHS and other public sector bodies

Re the Twitter poll about delaying leaving and leaving with no deal. Lots of people just want brexit over with, many have said how much anxiety is being caused by the unknown and constantly being told this will hurt.....in a bit. That's bound to skew the results on top of what everyone else has already said. A delay is only reassuring for remainers/deal seekers if we think/believe it will achieve something. A delay to then no deal would feel worse to some.

Anyway that's just my take, I didn't read it as omg so many people WANT no deal.

Hazard yes, my leaver friend upon reading the impact report was pleased - she said previously we had been told the economy would shrink MORE than 9% so apparently that's an improvement. I have to keep reminding her that it is self harm and if that happened in any other time she would be very concerned.

Oh and apparently Mogg is OK as even though he is anti-abortionist he doesn't vote that way, just abstains from Gay Marriage votes etc as it is obviously a step too far . She doesn't seem keen on Boris as PM though and thinks May will keep going until 2020. She still believes the Tory party isn't split and Labour is the one with extremists.

I want this over with ASAP and I see it as passing the WA as it stands now and although the EU have said the will not reopen the WA now, I would have reasonable confidence that with a will to negotiate properly by the UK starting 30 March aspects of the WA could be reopened. I believe the EU have said they would be open to this idea.
The obvious problems being that the UK government will continue to fight like rats in a sack for many more months at least and not come up with something they want, rather than a whole bunch of stuff they don't want.

The EU won't reopen the WA only the political declaration. No incentive whatsoever for them and nothing to be gained if they do - there is no solution to the backstop that isn't the backstop. And even if the U.K. were to change its red lines, and to agree (via the political declaration) to a closer relationship, the backstop would still be required because the U.K. is no longer a trustworthy political actor.

And even if the U.K. were to change its red lines, and to agree (via the political declaration) to a closer relationship, the backstop would still be required because the U.K. is no longer a trustworthy political actor.

Ultimately this is the biggest cost of Brexit, and will be the biggest drag on any future discussions.

We are now a deeply unpopular, greedy, insular, Luddite country.

How Brexit Britain Managed to Lose All of Its Friends
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-01/how-brexit-britain-managed-to-lose-all-of-its-friends

The EU have said umpteen times that the backstop can't be renegotiated. At some point the UK will have to accept that and then it's May's deal with the backstop, no deal, or remain. However, it's now the 1st March and still hardly any politicians seem to have taken this in.

If the UK drops its red lines on FOM and ECJ

Firstly, it would be very difficult poliitically to get a clear majority - not just a few votes - in the HoC, plus the PM, to agree this
and it would be the minimum the EU would require to take the UK seriously on this.

Secondly, it is VERY unlikely the EU would open the political declaration, because A50 only refers to negotiating a framework for the future relationship - and that is all that is feasible in even the full 2 years.

It would take too long - even if the UK finally got its act together - to negotiate and approve the text for a treaty that nails down the SM + enough Customs relationship to ensure no hard border .... unless there is a backstop

imo, The EU don't trust the UK enough to remove the backstop even if the framework is completely changed

If negotiations in transition fail to reach a trade deal, the EU want the certainty of a backstop;
otherwise, the UK can just walk away at the end of transition.

The backstop gives them more legal clout - and redress in the World Court - if the UK walks out

pp here have said they oppose the WA because they don't trust the UK govt to negotiate in good faith,
so why on earth do you expect the EU to be trusting ?

The other 2 main issues in the WA - expat rights & exit bill - would also not change

Hence I expect the WA itself would not change in substance, just cosmetically
and it would be the PD that would be negotiated

If the UK govt then intended in good faith negotiates in transition an SM + CA deal that produces frictionless trade, the backstop would never be activated and would never be hanging over them

Is this significant ? Seems Theresa May is struggling to deliver Brexit as - astonishingly - she and others in the cabinet can't see the point ?

So why not level with the Great British Public instead of clunking around like a deranged moose ?

Although it would have been very very difficult for my opinion of her to sink lower, it has.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47416873/ex-adviser-nick-timothy-sad-about-theresa-may-s-brexit-stance

Nick Timothy, who was Theresa May's right-hand man in her first year in office, says he is "sad" about how she has handled the Brexit negotiations, in his first TV interview.

He tells the BBC's Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg that while he respects Mrs May, she and other ministers are treating Brexit as a "damage limitation exercise" and are "struggling to see any economic upside".

I expect the EU would demand both parties - and both leaders - state unequivocally that they are dropping the red lines and that the Opposition would be consulted during negotiations,

before they grant a long extension to renegotiate the PD.