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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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LonelyandTiredandLow · 27/02/2019 14:49

This is exactly where I anticipated problems with the extension - EU is made up of a lot of countries we have pissed off quite royally. Even more so in the last 2 years.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 27/02/2019 14:49

This is exactly where I anticipated problems with the extension - EU is made up of a lot of countries we have pissed off quite royally. Even more so in the last 2 years.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 14:49

So what will May do if she asks for a short extension and France & probably a few others veto this ?

MadAboutWands · 27/02/2019 14:53

I think the fact that there are some conditions attached to the extension. And in particular, that the extension will be given ONLY for a specific reason is something that has been known for some time.

It just has been forgotten by most politicians due sheer arrogance that the EU will do/give them whatever they want. AGAIN.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 14:54

The EU Commission is looking at what is best for the EU as a whole, including its image,
i.e. not to be seen as refusing a desperate UK request

However, E27 leaders now seem to be considering interests of businesses and also own public opinion in their individual country.

The 27 were united in negotiating and agreeing the WA, but now at least a few members may not prepared to allow more time for UK dithering.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 14:54

So what will May do if she asks for a short extension and France & probably a few others veto this ?

I know what she won't do, which is address the issues behind the veto and try again.

FWIW, the more people started talking about an extension as if it was a given, the less I felt it was. The UK has been told - maybe not in words MPs can understand - but it has been told and told clearly.

MadAboutWands · 27/02/2019 14:55

It’s nit just France who is saying ‘only with conditions’.
It has been the EU position since the start.

I find it interesting though that it’s france which is singled out again. As of it had more power than other EU countries. Which is not the case.
Or if, somehow, it was still at war with the U.K.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 14:56

The EU Commission is looking at what is best for the EU as a whole, including its image, i.e. not to be seen as refusing a desperate UK request

Part of the problem is, it can't be a "desperate request" can it ? The ongoing narrative is that Brexit is going peachy and there's no problems whatsoever. "Project Fear" and all that.

If everything is going so swimmingly, why would the UK need an extension ?

(As I posted a few days ago there's no chance of an extension unless the UK requests it, and requests it publicly)

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 14:58

I find it interesting though that it’s france which is singled out again.

The default English setting is Francophobe. Maybe it's simply geography ...

(The comedian Andrew Maxwell, who lives in Kent, mentioned a neighbour who gets irrationally angry when the weather is fine enough to see France Grin )

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 14:59

Mad The Commission and especially Tusk (EP) still seem to favour an extension

Attitudes seem to have hardened recently in the member countries though,
or maybe they are voicing publicly what before they only said behind closed doors

I suspect it was seeing May whip against the agreement she hd signed - which Barnier's team had spent all that time on
The EU thought it was finally over, then May reneged. Again

That went down really badly here (Germany), even though Merkel still says she'd approve an extension

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 15:02

May's trips around European capitals trying to get them to dump the Irish backstop has also gone down badly
Maybe she tried her little dances again

HazardGhost · 27/02/2019 15:07

It's not exactly new news is it? If we ask for an extension while screaming WE ENJOY FUCKING EVERYTHING UP, INCLUDING YOU TIMES 27 then justifiably people might say no. However TM could argue that fucking everything up including you times 27 is actually a clear plan and 100% deliverable.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 15:08

imo, Rentoul is wrong here, saying "There's no chance of No-Deal Brexit now":

he makes the common mistake in the UK that it is just for the HoC to decide about No Deal and that they can choose to extend, to put off making choices.

However, if MPs vote down the WA again, the EU may refuse a request for an extension, whether long or short.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-no-deal-delay-theresa-may-article-50-rees-mogg-latest-a8797666.html?

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 15:08

The Commission and especially Tusk (EP) still seem to favour an extension

Of course they do. But what they favour, and what the EU as a whole is prepared to do are very different things.

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 15:09

However, if MPs vote down the WA again, the EU may refuse a request for an extension, whether long or short.

A request which has yet to be made ....

prettybird · 27/02/2019 15:12

If the E27 only approves an extension on the basis that the UK can't revoke if we don't participate in the EU elections, what happens then?

DGRossetti · 27/02/2019 15:13

If the E27 only approves an extension on the basis that the UK can't revoke if we don't participate in the EU elections, what happens then?

Is that a possibility ? I'm not euro-lawyer, but if it's an extension, then it will be under the same T&Cs as A50, surely. Otherwise it becomes a separate legal entity ?

prettybird · 27/02/2019 15:17

I have no idea - which is why I was pondering. But given that we are supposed to have held EU elections by the end of June as members - then we should be held to the same rules as members if we want to be able to revoke as members Grin

My brain hurts Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 15:19

DG afaik, the EU / member states can in practice set conditions before agreeing to renew, since any of them can veto
Spain has already talked about setting conditions

The most important one - to avoid the UK buggering up the EP - is that the UK agrees to hold MEP elections.

For a short extension, this could be after the end of the extension, so that it would only be activated if the UK actually requests & receives a 2nd extension.
Otherwise, it would fall away.

I don't know if they would be this hardnosed / suspicious, but I think legally they can do this.

1tisILeClerc · 27/02/2019 15:20

What are the 'desirables' that the individual EU27 would like?
Spain is Gibraltar.
France is Fish,
The Netherlands and Germany seem to be accumulating bits of UK industry and personnel.
An attempt at prising open the WA could see a massive 'wish list' dropping out.

Parker231 · 27/02/2019 15:21

My understanding is that all EU27 have to approve an extension and it has to be for a substantial reason ie general election, second referendum and not because TM can’t get the WA approved. If the extension is granted, what is going to change in a short period?

RedToothBrush · 27/02/2019 15:22

20 boxes packed today...

... Time to watch some BBC parliament to completely fry my brain.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 15:22

DG The main reason for invoking A50 when May did was reportedly to avoid the complication of the EP elections.

However, if May had delayed say another year, to hold cross-party talks about what we wanted (in my dreams)
then we would have had to hold EP elections during the A50 period.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 15:23

Hey, red have you accepted the house offer then ? (re packing boxes)

BigChocFrenzy · 27/02/2019 15:25

Oops, earlier typo:
I put Tusk (EP) when of course I meant EC (he's President of European Council)

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