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Brexit

Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/02/2019 21:20

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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1tisILeClerc · 16/02/2019 15:52

IIRC about 11 of May's 'Chequers' paper (12) contradicted the WA.
There is very little 'spirit' of wanting to be pro European being displayed, at least nowhere near the degree that it needs to be to make it work.

Littlespaces · 16/02/2019 15:53

So where is the secret No deal advice that May agreed to publish? Is it THAT bad?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-brexit-theresa-agrees-publish-14000292

mrslaughan · 16/02/2019 16:00

Last night after reading the thread - at a point where passions were running high over whether we should keep on pushing for remain/PV or accept that ship has sailed and then go for the next best option - the WA.
I started discussing it with DH - who incidentally had asked me earlier in the week, to stop bringing it up..... he has anxiety and the whole brexit debacle is not helping at all. I think part of this is in the conscious decision to move here. He was at the point dual nationality NZ/UK - and we are now all in that situation. Anyway career wise opportunities much greater here - which has proved right, but who could have predicted this abyss we are currently facing as a nation? We financially are ok (though I have in the last year started a business, not sure it will survive)- stockpile of food and medication planned for. However we had friends over last night - really they are more like family. Single mum, 3 kids. Unreliable ex husband financially (and he’s in the domestic construction industry/has his own business - will people be affording new roofs?) - she has £60 a week to feed them all, and does so beautifully now - but what about in the situation of inflation? Her £60 Isn’t going to grow. Made me think I need to increase my stockpile. And maybe get some chickens....

Anyway back to DH - he talked about a phenomenon in physics called hysteresis, and how even though you may expect things to follow the same path backwards - they don’t. How this theory has actually been applied in other fields. Anyway he made the point we can’t go back as a society to where we were as a society pre- referendum(and maybe we don’t want to, as the undercurrents were there, we just didn’t realise/thought that they were outliers).
What we need to do as a group of pro-Europeans/ moderates/centrists - is be prepared to compromise. Compromise with each other - as that will give us strength in numbers to fight this Facism.
We can’t be scared to speak out (I get lots of comments about being political- the inference being too political) and we also need to find some way to come together and push for electoral reform- so this kind of extremism can’t take hold again.

jasjas1973 · 16/02/2019 16:01

LeClerc - i agree the WA gives us more or less eu membership but after that?
It gives no certainty to business or FS, who will either leave or not invest, as the dutch PM said recently "brexit has been good for Holland" the Dutch speak excellent english and are an industrious nation, as are the Belgians.

Index, a tech venture capitol investor said as much too, lack of dynamic skilled labour means they'll be looking elsewhere.

The tories will negotiate a deal that suits them and not us! and will seal any loose relationship terms before the next GE in 2022 and if they cannot, they will not respect the backstop CU either - what is to stop them?

Vote the WA out again and there is still all to play for.

lonelyplanetmum · 16/02/2019 16:03

Yes I repeat this anyone who is lurking and is now starting to think 'Oh Shit it is all going wrong' actually sign this.

Anyone who is lurking and has never signed a petition before -sign it.

No-one will know who signed it-if you're shy about these things.

If a million sign it the gov will at least know we are not happy. It sends a message.

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=petition.parliament.uk/petitions/239706" target="_blank">https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/239706

lonelyplanetmum · 16/02/2019 16:04

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/239706

TalkinPeece · 16/02/2019 16:08

mrslaughan
Your DH is right.
The fracture can never be patched over to take the UK back to where it was before the vote was called

Not sure what version of the UK will evolve from where we are
but stability will take a long time

67chevvyimpala · 16/02/2019 16:11

I agree with your dh laughlan

I'm debating standing for local elections in may.

Thats how pissed off I am.

prettybird · 16/02/2019 16:13

Signed and shared.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/02/2019 16:17

jas Vote the WA out and you get No Deal
There isn't "all to play for"
We've run out of time

There is a tiny window to change the future relationship in the PD . the EU would allow a few exxtra weeks for this, if the UK could show it is genuinely serious

However, the 3 essential elements in the WA - backstop, expat rights, exit bill - must stay as they are

TalkinPeece · 16/02/2019 16:19

chevvy
I'm debating standing for local elections in may.
You might be onto something there ....
if Remainers stood in every Parish and District and Borough and County election up and down the country
not on a party ticket but as "Independent, pro Europe"
they are unlikely to get many seats
BUT
will be the seed crystal for lots of angry people who by then will be sick to the back teeth of Brexit
Nominations for the elections close at 4pm on April 3rd .....
www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/word_doc/0016/215125/Election-timetable-LGEW-scheduled-elctions.doc

jasjas1973 · 16/02/2019 16:22

we also need to find some way to come together and push for electoral reform- so this kind of extremism can’t take hold again

Too late, MPs are being threatened with violence, deselection, having to change their vote under duress and don't forget, Jo Cox was murdered.

Leaving the EU means we have appeased the extremists and like all bullies they won't stop at the EU! UN, ECHR, return of the death penalty will be next.
Once we leave, the divisions will become greater, not less.

Electoral reform will never happen, the UKs population are too stupid to understand what PR is, even if one of the main parties tried to introduce it.

There is no reason why the UK cannot go back to where it was, it just requires good leadership.. so yeah maybe it can't then lol!

67chevvyimpala · 16/02/2019 16:22

I would indeed be standing as an independent

TalkinPeece · 16/02/2019 16:23

Check if there are elections in your area here
www.gov.uk/government/publications/election-timetable-in-england
And remember that you can be "double hatted"
so can stand for Parish, District and County at the same time
AND
You can stand as a Parish or Town councillor so long as you live within three miles of the parish boundary .....
www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/141798/Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election-P-and-C.pdf

The more NEW people in elected office from this year, the better the chance of positive long term change

prettybird · 16/02/2019 16:25

The next scheduled elections of any type in Scotland assuming the EP ones don't go ahead Hmm - aren't until 6 May 2021 Shock: the next Scottish Parliament ones Shock.

That is, unless there is another GE and/or Nicola gets to hold Indyref2 or even less likely the Government agrees to a PV. Hmm

1tisILeClerc · 16/02/2019 16:27

{LeClerc - i agree the WA gives us more or less eu membership but after that?}
The UK is leaving. Simples!
EU dependent businesses (like car manufacture and large chunks of the finance industry) will be gone, possibly announcing their departure on 30 March. Of course car production lines won't be ripped up and taken to Europe, management will see how things progress post 30 March and keep EXISTING models running but not invest, and their actual departure will depend on the UK gov getting it's shit together. The more chaos the quicker they will leave. If a fairly smooth agreement happens to cover tariffs and JiT aspects they may stay longer.
You also need to bear in mind that there is currently overproduction and many car companies are wanting to downsize their EU production. Brexit gives a handy 'parcel' that can be simply shut down. BMW (?) announced increase in production in China, where the new markets are, starting in 3 years time. They are waiting for some Chinese legislation to come into effect.
The real bottom line is that within say 1 year the UK will have to find new innovative ways to make serious money to cover and in fact improve over the income currently made by the companies that will be leaving. The UK needs to do this while having a government at each others throats and with the rest of the population coming to terms with all the stuff that it has lost.
Voting the WA out gives nothing to play for, there is ONLY crash or revoke, and revoke isn't happening.
Interesting comment about hysteresis, to get back to where the UK is not a reversal of the path, but it will have to become distinctly Pro European. Meaning the (arguable) 6% interest needs to become 12% at least for a while after which it would settle back to about 6%.
It is for this reason that I would say that if there were a straight 'In EU' or 'Out EU' question again, to be valid it would need at least 65 to 70% clear win.
World events are overtaking Brexit and although there is concern, it is not the hottest topic.

jasjas1973 · 16/02/2019 16:27

Vote the WA out and you get No Deal

Leaving on a No-Deal will split the Tory party and could easily lead to a Corbyn victory at a GE that could well follow this year.

We could have a GE, a long extension or even a PV....

With the greatest respect, you do not know it would lead to a no-deal.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/02/2019 16:28

We're in this mess because of the abysmal politicians we have, who lack the essential talents that a modern complex country requires to govern.
Above all, they mostly lack moral principle and courage

Decent politicians would never have let things get to the state of having this referendum, the tool of demagogues - and banned in the German constitution for that reason.

1tisILeClerc · 16/02/2019 16:30

67chevvyimpala
Yes, go for it!!

TalkinPeece · 16/02/2019 16:34

prettybird
The next scheduled elections of any type in Scotland
NOPE
There are Community Council elections every single year.
Some have already closed
eg
www.highland.gov.uk/info/799/elections_and_voting/643/community_council_elections
but other areas may have theirs later in the year ....

BigChocFrenzy · 16/02/2019 16:38

jas We are leaving on 29 March, unless we Revoke or the EU grant an extension

You are assuming:

  1. That No Deal would split the Tory Party and collapse the govt before 29 March
    I disagree - ministers may resign, but would they really vote No Confidence and let in a Corbyn government ?

  2. That a GE would require an extension
    If a GE were announced Thursday 27 February, the required 25 working days take us to Thursday 2 April

Parliament would be dissolved from the announcement, so MP could do nothing

Brexit would have already happened before the GE

DGRossetti · 16/02/2019 16:41

Well maybe I'm mis reading it but it implies that there is a group of MP's that will get together to stop No Deal.

You're not misreading it. The problem is HOW ? There simply is no way it can happen. Even if 649 MPs all turned up and demanded a vote (which is never going to happen).

It's simply too late.

Sorry to be so blunt, and sorry to use shocking imagery, but the UK is like someone who has taken an overdose of paracetamol. Yes, you can pump the stomach. Yes you can try all sort of various treatments. But ultimately the patient is walking dead. Their liver will fail at somepoint soon.

In fact the suicide imagery bears more attention if you view a lot of Leave votes as a cry for help. Unfortunately there's no way back.

I'd love to be proved wrong, but too many things have had to go wrong for this state of affairs to be anything other than intended. I'm sure there's a classical quote (maybe Machiavelli hmm) about ensuring you leave the people with hope as it makes them easy to rule. Take away hope, and you face permanent rebellion.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/02/2019 16:43

I may be cynical, but I'd expect the ERG to be putting enormous pressure on May to announce GE, any time from 27 Feb,
because it dissolves Parliament and leaves no way to stop No Deal - which is their aim

TalkinPeece · 16/02/2019 16:43

Interesting,
Northern Ireland has full Local Council elections on 2nd May ....
BUT
They use the STV system rather than FPTP that the rest of the UK has to put up with
more ways that the DUP gets to be different and the same
I wonder how many of their 131 seats they hold on to ....
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_in_Northern_Ireland

1tisILeClerc · 16/02/2019 16:44

Attending Parish and Council meetings is quite illuminating. It is worth going as an observer/member of the public for a good while and get your head around the politics of what is going on. Central government decree 'cuts' but hand the responsibility for implementing them to local and Parish councils, so ducking the 'blame' for horrendous cutbacks.
67chevvyimpala, Lemon drizzle and verbal abuse party!