Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

Interesting article in Spectator by legal expert:

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/the-brexit-legal-challenges-that-could-force-britain-to-leave-without-a-deal/

Essentially suggesting that the legal processes are lengthy and getting a vote on WA is only first step, we still need to see the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill which they've not started to consider yet (?). It's not just a case of get WA over the line at meaningful vote and we then have a deal.

Does this make the suggestion of who blinks first a bit redundant as we may already be well past what, in practice, represents the '11th hour'?

Does anyone clever in such matters suggest what a brisk passing of the WAIB might need, time-wise? Presumably there'll be some debating time needed in both Commons and Lords?

Hammond not going to China - apparently they're a tad upset.

Quite heartening to see we're already being put in out place - we've not even left yet ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47264476

Essentially suggesting that the legal processes are lengthy and getting a vote on WA is only first step, we still need to see the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill which they've not started to consider yet (?). It's not just a case of get WA over the line at meaningful vote and we then have a deal.

It's almost like the whole aim is no-deal, really, isn't it ?

In Parish and Community Councils, the rate of "uncontested" elections runs at about 75%
ie any person who volunteers to spend other people's money gets to do so
if more people stood, the whole of UK Governance would improve

Pity we cant send Gavin Williamson to China - on a one way ticket.

I see the BBC also allowed Gorgeous George to out the boot in (again).

Meanwhile, former Chancellor George Osborne said he found it "very difficult" to work out the UK government's policy on China.

He told BBC Radio 4's Week in Westminster: "You've got the defence secretary engaging in gunboat diplomacy of a quite old-fashioned kind.

"At the same time as the chancellor of the exchequer and the foreign secretary are going around saying they want a close economic partnership with China.

"Ultimately it's the responsibility of Theresa May to sort this out. At the moment it looks all at sea."

Great tag line leclerc

I may use that.

I'm assuming Corbyn would support any proposal to hold a GE

So if there is a real intention to have No Deal, we can expect a GE announcement and a vote anytime from 27 February.

Can MPs opposed to No Deal organise a plan in time, to defeat calls for a GE, if both May & Corbyn go down that road ?

True, I forgot about Community Councils, mainly because they are voluntary and not every area has one. Just about the only area that I can see that they do have a statutory role is to be consulted for planning and licencing applications.

According to this www.glasgow.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=17326, they can complement the role of the local authority but are not part of local government. So they are on a par with Parent Councils, which have a statutory right to be consulted on education changes/issues (eg boundary changes) and to be involved in recruitment of head teachers and deputes - but unless the parents want to have one, there is no actual requirement for there to be one )

Catching up slowly but going out again soon.
Agree we are past the point of anything changing - am resigned to No Deal unless we have terrorist attack of May has a serious health issue.

Back to the fracture - the trouble is it isn't that we can't go back to where we were and need to ensure it doesn't happen again. We've already done that with 2 world wars. It doesn't work. This time I'm sure is similar in that we have no clear opposition. Every leave voter voted for something vastly different and thus there is nothing to fight, other than fascism. So we are actually on a continuing course, for most of us at least. I also don't believe that the people voting leave would have given a toss one way or the other had you asked them a year before the vote. Had you asked them about austerity on the other hand...

Hi there Prettybird
Yup community councillors are unpaid, but they are elected
and the councils have spending powers
(in England the biggest Town Councils are multi million pound affairs)
and the point is that its a way to challenge the status quo by standing up for what you believe in ....

Just a wee heads up that Series 2 of "Soft Border Patrol" has started.

Quite aside from the humour ("We call it a 'FitBrit'" ..) there are some stark pointers about how the border issue is intractable. The scene with the sheep being one of many .....

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0c2082y

Thanks for such a brilliant series of threads rtb, and all who have contributed. I've found them invaluable in following developments, albeit generally half a day behind the rest of you and continually trying to catch up.

Having seen the clip of JRM talking about Boer War concentration camps I realised that I knew very little about them and decided to google. First thing that came up makes his comments even more chilling: www.theguardian.com/world/2001/dec/09/paulharris.theobserver

I've always recognised his personal agenda, and always distrusted him, but to hear him defending the use of these camps so calmy was deeply shocking.

From the BBC article quoted above:
{Imports from China were worth £42.6bn, whereas exports, largely made up from car sales, were worth £20.8bn.}

OK, car sales from the UK will be almost entirely the BMW/Nissan/Vauxhall/?? brands, which are the ones very likely to be departing the UK.
Anyone else see a bit of a hitch here?

I also don't believe that the people voting leave would have given a toss one way or the other had you asked them a year before the vote. Had you asked them about austerity on the other hand...

Misdirection. Don't look at my hands ...

There was a local election near us not too long ago. A traditional Labour strong hold but its lower middle class these days and should be where the lib Dems are able to pitch to the discontented.

The independent candidate pulled a shock victory.

It wasn't much of a shock to me. I spoke to someone after about it in the Lib dems and they confused they were surprised but thought it likely that's how things were going to go from now on.

At a local level anyone who can pick a subject where there is relative local discontent (you all know THE local issue pissing off people in your area. It's not too hard to find). Then pitch yourself in opposition to that, and then have a few other ideas and you'll have a decent change.

All across the country people are fed up to the back teeth with party politics for whatever reason it happens to be. The BNP capitalised on it. Ukip did too. And now there are numerous resident associations popping up all over the place. Party loyalty is weaker at local level.

I do think if the national party domination does break, it will happen with independents proving themselves at local level and apathy and discontent putting in protest votes which will result in lots of independents nationally.

Campaigning is much easier and easier with social media too. And new laws about that will probably disproportionately help independents too. I do think Labour and the Cons won't see it coming if it happens too. And won't have a fucking clue how to deal with it anyway. Apart from raising fee to stand for election - which given the state of party finances atm, isn't going to be top of their agenda.

If, of course, democracy survives long enough.

Having seen the clip of JRM talking about Boer War concentration camps I realised that I knew very little about them and decided to google.

Fucking intellectual.

People who check facts, rather than simply fawn on every syllabub of our glorious leaders will soon be a thing of the past.

Not that far from me, an MP was elected on a purely local issue

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Taylor_(British_politician)

Note he was helped by the LibDems not standing.

RTB
Apart from raising fee to stand for election - which given the state of party finances atm, isn't going to be top of their agenda.
No fees to stand for local council ...... not even County ....

Can I just point out that most Parish councils have very little money at their disposal, although a good local councillor can make a huge difference if they have knowledge of various funds or grants available.

Planning , well they wield very little power at all. The most annoying thing that has trickled down from national Government is the fact that Parish councils are no longer able to access any funds for builds of 5 or less houses, guess how many of the builds locally have been above 5 and for bonus points how many have included low cost housing , another victim of Government policy . Yep that's right none and none !
Very few members of the public attend Parish council meetings regularly, I am not sure why this is the case ? If anyone has any ideas at increasing engagement they would be greatly appreciated, just to mention we are not allowed to host them in the local pub

The French had a go at sorting out inequality in 1789.

Not defending Mogg's comments at all but concentration camps were not intended to be extermination camps thus 'death rates' may well have been similar to poorer parts of Glasgow, although of course you should argue that there should have been no deaths at all.

I've now checked: the community council in my area has vacancies in every sub area

Pollokshields is divided into sub areas, and ideally each sub area would have 2 Community Councillors, but can have up to 3 Community Councillors if there is capacity in other sub areas. At the moment we have spaces across all of the sub areas and we hope that people living in Pollokshields would consider becoming Community Councillors.If you would like more information on joining as a Community Councillor or if you think there is an issue we should be looking into, please message us here. - so I think that they would just love to have enough volunteers to have an election

As an aside, this is why I think the schools' protest on climate change was to be commended. If we can get our young people engaged and involved in politics at a young age, then that can only be a good thing. If it had happened earlier, then we might not be in this clusterfuck . The evidence of 16-18 year olds having the vote in Scotland (in everything except Westminster run elections/referendums ) is that they develop the habit of voting and continue to vote

As another aside, within 20 minutes of posting the link to the Revoke A50 petition, 3 friends had commented saying that they'd signed

If anyone has any ideas at increasing engagement they would be greatly appreciated, just to mention we are not allowed to host them in the local pub
Unless there is no other building available within the parish

Very few members of the public attend Parish council meetings regularly, I am not sure why this is the case ?
Which is a shame because parish councillors can join their County Association and then the National Association and then get the ear of ministers
just by volunteering to join that tiny council .......

Roland Smith @rolandmcs
Reminder of those in 'Left Behind' Leave areas:

Chelmsford, Brentwood, Epping, Hertford, Broxbourne, Welwyn, Rickmansworth, Wendover, Gerrards Cross, Beaconsfield, Runnymede, Egham, Virginia Water, Chertsey, Caterham, Reigate, Godstone, Sevenoaks.

Please send money soon?

So what do well-off 'Home Counties Leavers' want?

Quick answer is "I don't know because no one has studied them." That's kind of the point... all that 'Left Behind' rot.

Some thoughts.... /1

First, we're talking about Leave voters in c.£750k - £5m+ houses in the leafy commuter belt around London and in similar places across the country. /2

Second, the demographic can be cast as: over-40, mostly Conservative-voting, financially secure beneficiaries of capitalism and globalisation. Romanian cleaners and Polish plumbers are welcome here. /3

Why did a large number of them vote Leave?
My experience is:
A. It's because of the EU (So not a proxy vote for something else).
B. They don't like how the EU has developed in their lifetimes and don't like the implications for self-Govt.
/4

C. They can be as hard or as soft Brexity as any other Leave group.
^D. They are the kinds of people prepared to "roll the dice" in pursuit of change.
E. They are privately realistic about what actually might be achieved (so won't riot).
F. They are contemptuous of politicians /5

If I had to pick out one defining feature of this group, it's point D - they are risk takers/disrupters and prepared to roll the dice. They believe they'll be fine, come what may. That change always brings opportunities, which they feel adept at 'riding'. /ends

Ooh look at that independent candidate? We need some change around here. We need to be in control of our own affairs.

I'm voting for the local resident campaigner....

Don't pitch on leave / remain. Change is needed. Just be good change.

These may be more affluent types but there are plenty of more moderate income / house price types who aren't of a dissimilar mindset.

You can unite disaffected kippers, remains and affluent leavers on this idea if you are smart.

As a former Parish Councillor I second Frumpety's comments.
In many cases central government propose things that should be done, while taking away the funds and processes to achieve them.