Does anyone genuinely think that things will continue exactly as they are if we crash out with no deal?

[MrsSchadenfreude]

If so, what is your reasoning behind this?

(What Boris Johnson and others have been falsely saying is that if we leave the eu we’d be so much better, economically. Most economist warmly disagree)

{Most economist warmly disagree}
One economist (Patrick Minford) claims there will be plenty of money around. What he should actually be doing is finishing the sentence and admit that it will only be a few who are already rich that will benefit and that industry and agriculture will be trashed and most will lose their jobs.

Dh works in finance

For years he has been whinging about the EU and saying we should leave

Then came the referendum and he did some research and spoke to other people in different areas of finance

And lo and behold he voted remain

I work for a fairly big multi national. Without wanting to reveal myself, all our Brexit scenario planning shows:

At best, no deal will mean our products will be more expensive because of tariffs.
At worse we won’t be able to sell our products because the certifications of our factories etc will not be valid. So we loose all of our EU business. Our supply chain is indeed just in time but we’re building some buffer in where we can. Obviously on fresh perishable stuff that wont work but ok frozen and ambient it’s fine. Just costs more which will be added to pricing.
Our employees may not be able to work. A lot of us have jobs with a European scope (me included), and in fact my role has been made redundant. Someone based in the EU will do it instead.

Thank you, Brexit.

Jazzybeats - this is what is so infuriating - people with knowledge have been saying this, but it all gets dismissed by the Brexiters. They just won't listen.

Fresh food may well be delayed at the ports, and it may well go up in price, it will not however, rot in the trucks.

I’m confused here though. You deal in fresh food but delay won’t result in it rotting? Over what period? The only foodstuff I’ve heard of that never goes off is the infamous spam.

And I thought that they modelled possible delays and there’s a point that comes where it’s total gridlock.

Well, trucks are refrigerated...not all, of course, but they’re designed to monitor and keep their temperature for quite some time. Similarly, loads of fruit is transported from continent to continent in containers that have controlled temp and humidity and they can control some of the gas in there as well to essentially “drive” the ripening process (most fruit is picked as green/not ripe, and designed to ripen at a set pace before selling). From that point of view, importing is quite an environmental catastrophe - so much energy goes into giving us fruit in the”wrong” season! Leaving aside the deforestation to swap native plants with trendy avocados...but the cooling, the transportation, the packaging, the waste...

(I find quite an aberration that sometimes it’s easier to find apples from Chile or garlic from China...garlic! Not exactly a high value crop, or something that suffers in the U.K. climate...mah...from one point of view, eating more seasonal stuff and more local could only be an improvement for the environment. Problem is...the U.K. is not producing enough. But it’s a matter of investment, by looking at the Netherlands...)

sometimes it’s easier to find apples from Chile

In the northern hemisphere apples basically all crop in September, which might help to explain this!

Apples do store well, but they don't store indefinitely, and there is a cost associated with storage.

Thanks. That makes sense.

eating more seasonal stuff and more local could only be an improvement for the environment

I wholeheartedly agree. It’s one of those ‘possible upsides to Brexit’. I’m in the very environmentally conscious camp, and think that if handled correctly, we could work towards self sufficiency and save the planet at the same time. It would require a different government though. Though I’d keep Gove in environment. He’s the only postholder in my lifetime to actually understand and try to deal with all the issues.

There are some upsides. But it does require leadership and I fear the opportunity will be lost through inertia and vested interests.

I'm with the environmentally conscious camp too. But we simply can't increase our production sufficiently- and certainly not in six weeks time?

Caroline Lucas (who I rate) is very clear about the environmental benefits of EU trade and membership. The EU priority about environmental matters is legendary compared to our most likely other partner- the US.

Stats on food capacity are here.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply#origins-of-food-consumed-in-the-uk-2017

www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/farming/1644763/nfu-president-issues-brexit-food-warning/

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/no-deal-brexit-would-be-catastrophic-for-food-supply-say-uk-farmers

No - we definitely can’t do it in six weeks.

But Brexit does pose a major opportunity for wholesale change. Weirdly hard Brexit might offer the best opportunity in that regard, because if you destroy your existing processes you have to rebuild. And if you have the right people, you can redirect the future.

But we have the Tories, elections that are essentially determined by lobbying, tribalism and those pesky vested interests, and a mass media that utterly fails to properly report news.

As for concerns about civil disorder and rioting, it won’t be faction against faction, or identifiable groups. If there are disturbances, it will be people/gangs attempting to obtain goods in short supply, or riots by angry mobs because they are angry. Like we’ve had numerous times before, but more widely spread.
Let’s hope the British Stiff Upper Lip and Stoic Attitude and Blitz Spirit aren’t as mythological as thought. I’d like a successful Brexit, who in their right mind wouldn’t?

I’m off to Aldi this week to start building a basics buffer. To be honest I feel bloody daft doing it like I’m expecting a zombie invasion or something. I can’t believe we’re nearly at the point of no deal and I’m having to seriously think like this.

Buy what you will actually eat and it isn't wasted.

I know it’s practical and sensible and I’ll only buy normal stuff but I’m normally a just in time shopper and it feels alien.

I suspect a lot of people on this thread enjoy zombie apocalyptic thrillers

I don't enjoy them at all. Not my thing at all. Did you mean general Preppers like me @Mmmmbrekkie ?

I suspect a lot of people on this thread enjoy zombie apocalyptic thrillers zombie thrillers scare the bejeesus out of me. I’ve always said I’d kill me and DD at the first sign of an outbreak I couldn’t cope with living in constant fear only to succumb eventually anyway.

Excellent thread with valuable input and polite exchanges (in the main). Thanks to all contributors, certainly food for thought.

Sorry about your experiences MinniesMum, I don’t know many Romanian people but those I do know are very pleasant and quite ‘normal’.

I work in an environment with quite a lot of EU workers, and I'd have to agree that the group we have had most problems with have been the Romanians 😟

Personally, I think the EU expanded too quickly eastwards. And they allowed busted economies like Greece, Italy etc into the Euro.

These things could have been dealt with from within as Europe evolved, but we won't be part of it. 🙁

Personally, I think the EU expanded too quickly eastwards.

And who encouraged that? And who then didn't use the curbs allowed on E European immigration? Step forward the UK Government.

I work in an environment with quite a lot of EU workers, and I'd have to agree that the group we have had most problems with have been the Romanians 😟

I'm really sorry to hear that Miljah. My experience is different. The Romanians working in my DM's care home are lovely. Incredibly patient and caring given the job they have to do. Likewise the Polish, Bulgarians, etc. They work long unsociable hours, they entertain the residents with celebrations and food from their home countries. They bring life and warmth to the place.

I worry what will happen when this supply of care workers dries up. They are worth their weight in gold.

I too very much fear what will happen when the EU workers in care homes, as HCAs, as hospital cleaners, leave.

I work in the NHS. I think the issue we had with the Romanians was they pretty much come from one small area in Romania, so the jobs (floor polishing, kitchen hands etc) were filled via word of mouth, someone's cousin, etc, so they arrived already knowing people and soon a clique is formed, one composed of quite a few poor-English speaking young men, who band together and thus feel protected in their 'gang'; so, like another poster, people would see them huddling together in a group (at work), hear their own name spoken, followed by a roar of laughter.

They also took great exception at being asked to do a task by a woman! There was always an undercurrent of resentment.

We'd never experienced this with any other EU group, and god knows, we've relied on enough over the years!