Does anyone genuinely think that things will continue exactly as they are if we crash out with no deal?

[MrsSchadenfreude]

If so, what is your reasoning behind this?

cheap casual labour

....why aren't they paying the min wage? which the UK can either raise and enforce all on its own.

ZHC will continue long after brexit, LFS show approx 1m people worked within a ZHC in 2017,
8% of workers in food/agri are on ZHC, 20% in food processing.

I've given up correcting the Y2K comments - you cannot change stupid.

omg I’m honestly interested in your perspective. Mind if I ask you to elaborate (without giving out too much personal details)? So I read that so much of fruit picking and processing in the U.K. is done by seasonal workers, like in the rest of the continent...with the big difference that in the U.K. its done mostly by EU legal migrants, and in the south of Europe it’s done by undocumented, mostly illegal workers from Africa or Bangladesh. If the U.K. stops the flow, seasonal workers are more likely to stay in their native countries (I’m not optimistic enough to hope they’ll suddenly overcome the mafia that profit on illegal workers there, so I’m not sure it’s a good thing or not, but that’s another matter).
How did your company calculate the 10% permanent staff increase? And how would a eminently seasonal business deal with permanent staff?
My industry is totally different, construction is heavily reliant on EU workers but they’re not necessarily seasonal- the site workers come and go with economic recessions but by large they settle, and designers definitely settle. Until now I’ve always been able to hire engineers and attract top candidates without worrying about visa, now there’s a real shortage of local people with the right education and I fear that going through the rigmarole of visa applications, 5K/person, minimum salary*, wait and see from home office etc will really damage me. And I can’t hire extra staff if I haven’t got enough projects in the pipeline to justify it, I can take a bet but looking 6 months ahead in my business is risky enough...

I'm travelling in early April and the flights are cheap as chips. I'm guessing the airlines are struggling to fill those seats. It'll be interesting to see if people's fears are borne out. (Obviously I hope not!😁)

• my understanding of the minimum salary is that the 30k for skilled workers only apply for the first x applications. In 2017 the number was around 20.000 people. If your application for a visa was after the quota is reached, the minimum salary threshold goes to 40k or 50k, which means only applicants with good seniority will get the visa. But if I want a young engineer with 2-3years experience I can’t pay him 50k...

@Omgineedanamechange luckily there is a wealth of UK labour which can easily be paid at much higher rates without passing on the costs to consumers and ensuring maintenance of the food supply.

No there isnt, I’m amazed you think that! Oh, wait, you’re patronising me, sorry, sarcasm doesn’t come across well online. The lack of replacement labour is the very reason for the vested interest from the food industry in staying in the eu, including me. As I keep saying. I’m a remainer. And if you read my original post, it clearly says, there will be price rises, and shortages, just not the apocalyptic scenes predicted by some on here.

My original point still stands. Fresh food may well be delayed at the ports, and it may well go up in price, it will not however, rot in the trucks.

“I‘m certain some remainers will be bitterly disappointed if brexit goes well.
They won’t be able to carry on moaning.”

“If” not “when”, Surferjet?

I won't be happy after Brexit because I don't want to leave the EU. But I won't be disappointed if it goes smoothly because I don't want the country to fall into chaos. I'd be very happy to have a calm and plentiful country for my kids to live in and be wrong about Brexit. I will still wish we were in the EU though.

The saddest thing about Brexit is how it has split the nation.

I‘m certain some remainers will be bitterly disappointed if brexit goes well. They won’t be able to carry on moaning.

I do get sick of hearing this. The only people moaning are the Brixiteers. Which they do endlessly.

Where have I predicted apocalyptic scenes @Omgineedanamechange ?
And you think people will just be happy about price rises and food shortages that you predict. With your insider knowledge of the food industry?

Fuck, Brexiteers, what are Brixiteers?

Where have I predicted apocalyptic scenes

Where I have I said it was you?

And you think people will just be happy about price rises and food shortages that you predict. With your insider knowledge of the food industry?
Where have I said that?

@Omgineedanamechange ,your posts have been if the "it'll all be fine" "anyone who says otherwise is a hysteric".
Most people on here are a bit nervous but trying to do something about it insofar as they can. I really haven't seen any hysteria.
Which is a silly word, by the way.

cherin
We are not seasonal, far from it. I can’t speak for uk fruit pickers, no experience, as I said, our product is 100% imported.

I can’t say too much about the reasoning behind the staff increase, other than it’s a change in our methods that gives us a significant competitive edge, and actually requires less staff overall, but is more predictable with daily numbers. Previously we might need (made up numbered) 200 one day, 100 the next, so we used casual labour, now it’s 110, all day, everyday, so we can offer permanent employment. These numbers are likely to increase soon too.

Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Davis, Fox, Gove, Raab, Farage et al convinced people that 'there would be no downsides to Brexit - only upsides.'

They had better be right, otherwise there are going to be a lot of very hungry and angry people in the UK - the 17m who discover that they were conned and the 16m who knew all along but have been dragged over the cliff as well.

I wonder if they are worried? The leaders of the French Revolution didn't too well. Robespierre was eventually guillotined for treason in 1794.

We are not seasonal, far from it. I can’t speak for uk fruit pickers, no experience, as I said, our product is 100% imported.

I'm interested where your fruit's imported from and what the current period is between picking and arrival at a UK processing or distribution facility?

The opinion of someone in the food industry obviously more relevant if you import short shelf-life produce by truck from the EU rather than containers of bananas or pineapples from Central America.

Have you made sure your import contracts are Brexit proof and don't just stop being valid if we No Deal? Can you say the same for any part of your supply chain? Including their insurance.
I hope so. You rather patronisingly said "it's called planning ". I hope your business thrives and doesn't sting the end customer with price hikes. I hope your distributors and sellers , if you aren't a retailer yourself are equally well prepared. I genuinely do.
But you are pretty naive if you think all businesses are like you.

Guys, the sad truth is that none of us can be prepared. No company, and no individual. Simply because we are still faced with a 2 way future (I’d like to say it’s 3 ways and we still have a hope to revoke, but I don’t feel it possible). It can go right, or it can go left. Either way, the government guidance documents are not clear or detailed enough for a business to take decisions. omg feels that his/her company has done enough to mitigate the risks they’re facing, and I take this as a fair statement.
It’s truly unknown, partially because the civil servants, the departments, even they don’t know.
Imagine a shipping company or a port authority. Do they hire people now in preparation for a hard Brexit? To do what? To process paperwork or to do physical checks on crates of frozen meat? How many people do they hire? With which set of skills? How do they know??? It’s impossible!

If we get the WA we get the transition period and everything is “more or less smooth” for two years.
If we get hard Brexit it’s a jump in a monstrously tangled situation

I’m really scared about what’s going to happen to us, I actually voted to leave and now I’ve changed my mind, someone told me ‘that’s what you get for being racist’ sick to death of that being flung at us leavers, they wouldn’t like it if their home country was overflowing with immigrants either, they will just never experience that because the person that said this to me, was Polish and Poland is a pretty poor country with the wages that you get, etc etc.

Anyway, this no deal stuff is really getting to me, like I don’t have enough anxiety with my own personal problems, now I’m taking on my countries political issues.

Extra police have been drafted in around the UK as riots are predicted and I’m thinking, who will be fighting? The leave Brits against the immigrants? The British leavers against the British stayers? Like who will fight? I have a family member with a terminal illness, what if they run out of the meds that are prolonging his life? I can’t sleep at night because of this.

Minnies Changing your mind means you are more powerful than any of us. It is a sign of intelligence to recognise a bad deal. Hopefully enough people will do so to make a difference.

People like you need to act to stop. Write to MP's, campaign, speak up. There isn't much time.

I say that as a member of a large family who voted Leave. I must admit I toyed with the idea until I engaged my brain. Fortunately it was before the vote in my case.

Also I still think there will be a fudge and it won't be a catastrophe. It isn't in anyone's interest.