Westministenders: A Special Place in Hell

[RedToothBrush]

A quick start to a new thread (as I've not been paying attention this evening!).

May is looking to ditch the Malthouse Compromise. Cos its so rubbish.

The ERG look like they are splitting over it anyway.

Up to sixty Labour MPs could back the WA.

Half the ERG plus Labour Leave Rebels could be enough to get the WA over the line.

Donald Tusk, makes controversial comment by more or less stating the obvious.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Guide to Brexit Abbreviations and Terms

Radio 4 this morning was depressing. 1 woman even said that she wished Brexit supporters would use violence like the Gilets Jaunes in France.

Christ that is depressing.

There has been at least one gilet jaune related incident of a Jewish business being graffitied with "Juden"

Is that what we want for Britain?

It's very difficult to judge the risks
In a state of shock, it's easy to be confused or easily calmed by false reassurances. There are blindingly clear clues to what is about to happen by historical, (Germany, Venezuela, Yugoslavia, Ireland) precedents though.

I just dont see any light at the end of the tunnel...

At all.

And I'm not sure how to cope with that.

The food cash may well be used to buy flights/ferry tickets if no deal crash out is likely by 3rd week in March...

Well, exactly. It's pretty easy to imagine what the worst case scenario looks like, but very hard to judge how probable it is.

If we look back over the last 7 years (since the Go Home vans and 'hostile environment'), at each stage, it's been a case of:
"Surely they wouldn't do that." Then they do.

Yep.

Every time I've dared think that, they've done it.

Place marking and stuff. I’ve stockpiled food for the dogs and cats. I haven’t got around to extra food for me because I hate shopping so much. Fingers crossed that there won’t be a run on chick peas or lentils. In terms of seasonal veg there’s always seaweed...

Misti I agree it is so difficult to forecast

Best case, we could muddle through just a bit poorer, with the economy in a slow decline over several years
Or alternatively multiple failure points and unknown unknowns could send the economic situation out of control, in a downward spiral.

If need be, I'd expect the govt to use the military & police - plus draconian measures under emergency powers - to keep civil disorder down to a low level.
The danger would be that they under / over react, or put things in the wrong place ...

I also fear that external enemies could take advantage of UK vulnerability and we see more mysterious poisonings, also hacking, drones and of course IS attacks

The 9 months stated in the EU Contingency plans for No Deal show a certain amount of phasing in Brexit
They can choose to extend it, if they decide it's in their interests.

They certainly won't deliberately stop exporting to us, if they can help it, especially food & meds
However, a likely sharp Sterling fall would increase prices on anything not ordered in Sterling
Haulage costs would rise too, due to delays

It is UK exports which look buggered, especially meat, fish & animal products

Reading the contingency plans, the EU will stick to WTO rules even during the 9 month period

• because legally there is no other option when we aren't negotiating a trade deal (and we won't be until the UK signs the backstop, expat rights and the exit bill)

All UK export of meat & animal products to the EU will probably cease for several weeks, possibly 6 months, until the UK is put on all the EU databases
and there is sufficient staff at the EU end to perform the required checks - phytosanitary etc

Other types of UK exports will be subject to standard 3rd country checks under WTO regs:
Rules of origin, Certifications for safety - food, electrical, toy etc - environmental regs, recycling .....

Again, insufficient trained staff and infrastructure will likely lead to long queues
so unless the UK restricts its imports, e.g. no lorry can go to Dover until one has exited, there will be logjammed ports in both the UK and France, possibly the Netherlands too

Even with good organisation - from Grayling ?? - UK exports will be seriously reduced because of this
which will cause the trade deficit to rocket

If it continues for more than say 3 months, then combined with another sharp Sterling fall,
I expect to see capital flight, some business flight / bankruptcies and unemployment spiking

Anyone remember The Last Election by Pete Davies?

The EU will be as supportive of the UK as possible. A rouge fascist state as a neighbour is not a desirable thing.

It wouldn't take deliberate "punishment" by the EU to cause things in the UK to become very grim

just keeping to WTO rules - as they have to, to protect their own SM -
combined with Uk organisation being inadequate / insufficiently resilient / falling apart

and of course the UK govt stubbornly refusing for months after Brexit to sign up to the main WA terms (backstop, expats, bill) and hence no negotiations on a new trade deal.

singing I was worried about break ins and our house isn't particularly secure. Then i try to rationalise it with oh the dog will put people off and then I worry about the dog getting nicked or hurt!!! And then I try to stop thinking because I'm clearly not helping myself

Thanks, BBC, for once. I hadn’t realised that Dante’s Eighth Circle of hell was reserved for specific fraudsters, eg the bus lie perpetrators. World this Weekend this lunchtime
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002g42
Near the end-ish. I do like Mark Mardell.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malebolge

^just keeping to WTO rules - as they have to, to protect their own SM -
combined with Uk organisation being inadequate / insufficiently resilient / falling apart^

Brexit is a political, not economic, project.

Brexit is about the UK having a collective midlife crisis / psychotic episode

Comparisons with Venezuela, Yugoslavia etc aren't really valid imo, because the UK has had centuries of being a stable democracy and a comparatively rich one.

The Uk was the #5 economy in the world, now #6 / 7
There are a lot of wealth and resources to tide us over quite a long time, as well as the habit of being stable & peaceful compared to those other countries.

I may be wrong, but those Brexiters spouting about violence seem just anonymous loudmouths, an ineffective and disorganised rabble from the F stream
I'd expect their thugs to fold very quickly after a couple of riots, if there were arrests and tough penalties, rather than pandering to their feelings

The UK armed forces have been ruthlessly effective at keeping order in other countries, so have the training and techniques to control the Uk population too, to limit civil disorder.

Of course, all that won't last for ever if Brexit take us over the cliff and the govt continues to bungle things,
but it gives us a breathing space to hopefully drop red lines & arrogance and then negotiate sensibly with our neighbours

Lucygoeswalkies
chick peas or lentils

These are perfect for store cupboards as they last ages and don't take up much room.

BigChocFrenzy

Again, insufficient trained staff and infrastructure will likely lead to long queues
so unless the UK restricts its imports, e.g. no lorry can go to Dover until one has exited, there will be logjammed ports in both the UK and France, possibly the Netherlands too

I read last week that the tax office had written to all importers saying that they'd be able to carry on exactly as they are now, for several months, if they're already registered for VAT. To avoid logjams at ports.

With No Deal looming, we really do need to dump Corbyn, so there is a sensible alternative government for the public to elect,
rather than someone harking back to his student agiitator days and likely to pour petrol on any flames

Juells The holdup would be at the EU end, processing goods from Britain
Traffic is 2-way, so logjams there would affect goods they want to export to us

Of course if Calais etc are logjammed, then so will British ports be, with all the goods vehicles queuing up waiting to leave

The EU contingency plans say they will have to treat UK goods like those of any other 3rd country, under WTO rules.
That's what would cause the queues, not controls imposed by the UK

That's why the UK govt is estimating ro-ro traffic flow, such as Dover-Calais, will drop to maybe only 13% of current levels

Kinda surprised they couldn't just fly him in !
EOY ran out of spy budget ?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6688053/British-spies-MI6-smuggled-defecting-Iranian-nuclear-scientist-UK-dinghy.html

British spies used the migrant crisis as cover to smuggle an Iranian nuclear scientist to safety on a dinghy, sources have claimed

The 47-year-old nuclear technician is thought to have hidden amongst other Iranian migrants on the inflatable boat when making the crossing across the channel.

The man arrived on New Year's Eve in Lydd, Kent, with 12 other migrants after the joint-operation involving MI6, the CIA and Mossad.

Our local GPs surgery has a lift for the less able (i.e. DW) to get upstairs where (due to spectacular bad planning) they have some equipment that can't be moved downstairs.

So when some cunty types (anaestheticless castration with a rusty spoon is till too good) decided to rip the lead off the roof and damage the lift mechanism, for 4 weeks, it was no go for a smear test (which is upstairs). Nor a community meeting held upstairs. (apparently an asthmatic lady had to decline as she couldn't manage the stairs).

The spare part need had to come from somewhere outside the UK in the EU. If the receptionists were correctly informed, it was France.

Obviously as a short-term problem, just rebook (and the lifts working now). However, if that had turned into "no idea when it'll be fixed", that would have thrown more load onto neighbouring surgeries that don't have lifts. They in turn would become busier and some load would inevitably end up at A&E.

That's one tiny example of how introducing an indeterminate delay in to one tiny area of a single building can have a chain-reaction knock-on effect.

Now imagine how much of the UKs infrastructure requires spares from the EU ? Imagine cars waiting for parts blocking up workshops, strangling the day-to-day business (luckily all motor repair workshops, tyre fitters and exhaust centres have acres of free parking, so they'll be immune .....)

Seen elsewhere -

rte.ie
Eye-opener why border-free Ireland worth fighting for
Claire Byrne
5-6 minutes

If you're finding it hard to get your head around Brexit and what might happen if a deal can't be found, don't despair, because most people are.

Even the politicians who are dealing with it day-in and day-out are suffering from head-melt. It gets so confusing and complex that at times, it can create spaghetti junctions in the most reasoned and seasoned heads.

Perhaps one way of making sense of one of the most profound potential impacts for us here in Ireland is to watch a programme which will remind you why a border-free Ireland is worth fighting for.

RTÉ Television recently broadcast a documentary called Shooting the Darkness - it's still available on the RTE Player.

The programme chronicled the experiences of press photographers in Northern Ireland who started their careers taking pictures at agricultural shows, community events and the like, before the Troubles cast them into the role of war correspondents.

A by-product of their fascinating stories of covering the terror of those days, was the distillation and crystallisation of the horror of it. Picture after picture showed the aftermath of bombings, shootings, torture and the raw grief and fear left in the terrible silent aftermath.

The photographs those brave journalists risked their lives to take, showed how horrendous life was then - children growing up in fear, many bereaved, injured or left nursing a family member who was maimed in the name of a war with, it must have seemed, no end in sight.

There is a doctor with his head in his hands crouching over a dead body; an older woman praying over the corpse of a man whose crime was his faith and a class of schoolchildren in tears of grief at the funeral of a classmate.

It's not easy to watch, but Shooting the Darkness is so important for us all to see at this critical moment in our history.

There is a sense, that perhaps in our relief that things are so much better now, many of us may have forgotten just how bad it was - now is the time for a shocking reminder, one which Shooting the Darkness provides.

Political journalist Michael Brennan, writing in the Sunday Business Post suggested over the weekend that if it were shown on a British TV channel before the Brexit deadline, it might just get the message home about just how serious all of this is.

More
Watch now: Shooting in the Darkness
Read full text: Good Friday Agreement

Having watched Shooting the Darkness, it is hard to fathom how the Good Friday Agreement happened at all. So entrenched was the conflict that the signing of that historic 35-page document is truly a precious event and it is endlessly more precious because, largely, it worked.

Reading it again in the last week, the simple language of respect, equality and a commitment to recognise difference and to agree to move forward solely on the basis of democratic consent, seems idealistic but so effective has it been, that there is an entire generation who only know peace on this island.

We know that there are those who are unshakeable in their belief that Brexit will benefit the UK - whether it will or not remains to be seen, but the question has to be, is it worth creating a border on this island again? Could it ever be worth even the tiniest risk of a return to that awful gut-wrenching pain that this country has suffered time and again?

The Good Friday Agreement became a victim of its own success. Because of the relative peace and calm in Northern Ireland since the latter part of 1998, very few seemed to consider the damage Brexit could do, by politicising the border again.

One of the first times it seemed to hit the national consciousness in Britain was when British Labour MP Stephen Pound gave an ad hoc interview to Channel Four at his party conference last September. He succinctly said that even "a camera up a pole... will become a target" and that if such targets had to be defended by uniformed customs officers from the UK, then the "peace process is finished".

Much water has flowed under the Brexit bridge since Stephen Pound said that, but that truth still remains. If the UK leaves the EU and takes Northern Ireland with it, fully out of the customs union and the single market, then this island will play host to an external frontier of the European Union.

It will be our responsibility to ensure that goods do not enter the Republic and the rest of the EU from the North - it is that simple.

Once the checks start, who knows where it will lead us.

The Good Friday Agreement makes reference, a number of times, to the EU, perhaps most notably, when it says all sides wish to "develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and close cooperation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the EU".

Where does Brexit leave that?

And where does Brexit leave the Good Friday Agreement?

sorry link for above

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0210/1028662-shooting-the-darkness/

With No Deal looming, we really do need to dump Corbyn, so there is a sensible alternative government for the public to elect, rather than someone harking back to his student agiitator days and likely to pour petrol on any flames

I would love it if they would quietly swap Corbyn for Lammy, but there is absolutely zero chance of that happening in the next 47 days. It would be hugely destabilising for labour and provide the perfect destraction for the press to ignore brexit for a while and get back to tearing the labour party to pieces.

In my view rather than an actual change in leadership right now they should just shut him in his shed and get on with things with him nominally the leader. Then swap in April when either it will be no deal and chaos anyway or WA/extension and the pressure will be off a bit. It's just too close to bday right now to be faffing about with a full-on leadership change.