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Brexit

Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/02/2019 15:14

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 20:14

Civil Contingencies Act 2004

Once invoked, it seems the government can do pretty much what it wants.

The only real safeguard is that the PM has to return to Parliament after 30 days if she wants an extension of Emergency Powers.
Hence why May would have to call the emergency in March, if she intends to pass the WA that way.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/36/pdfs/ukpga200400366_en.pdf

22 Scope of emergency regulations

(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate Hmm
for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.

According to the Guardian legal bods back in 2004,

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2004/jan/07/politics.terrorism

"The powers available to the government and state agencies would be truly draconian:

Cities could be sealed off,
travel bans introduced
all phones cut off,
and websites shut down.
Demonstrations could be banned
and the news media be made subject to censorship.
New offences against the state could be "created" by government decree.

LittleSpace · 04/02/2019 20:16

It reminds me of the 1930's.

MrsLettuce · 04/02/2019 20:18

All UK citizens in the Netherlands received this letter: www.dutchnews.nl/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Bulkbrief-betrokkene-1_Informatiebrief-Brexit-1.doc a few weeks ago. This was published when it was announced www.dutchnews.nl/news/2019/01/you-can-stay-dutch-tell-british-nationals-but-you-will-need-a-special-permit/ I've not had my follow up letter yet but it sounds like it might be what was going on with the Dutch DH.

cherin · 04/02/2019 20:20

If the U.K. lets all the lorries in without checking, it’s goung to be party time for all those European companies that have dodgy products they can’t really shift in the EU market (I’m Italian, I’m writing on the basis of a sad, but objective understanding of reality, where counterfeit products range from ceramic tiles to tomato sauce or haute couture dresses).
But the EU can’t possibly wave lorries in because there’d be a rebellion of 27 counties, all aligned to have certain product standards (and no further checks once the stuff is in the continent). Why would they pay for membership if it doesn’t guarantee the main benefit?

golondrina · 04/02/2019 20:21

PMK

umpteennamechanges · 04/02/2019 20:23

So according to Tusk DC admitted that he only offered a referendum because he thought he'd always be in a coalition with the LDs and they'd stop him from holding one...and then he won a majority and actually had to do it....

ShockHmmSadAngry

cherin · 04/02/2019 20:24

(If your extra virgin olive oil past 29.3 smells a bit dodgy...you’ve been warned. It’ll be all the bad batches at refineries that take other oils and try to pass them for real olive...)

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 20:25

chickens That's my understanding too of what R North has been saying and it sounds plausible:

The French would check all British exports from day 1 like any other 3rd country, as required under WTO rules

Hence Calais in particular would soon be logjammed - North is dubious about the claims of the Calais port politician that they are ready for all that is involved

Hence Dover would soon be backed up to

The obvious solution is - under Emergency Powers - for the govt to only allow empty lorries into Dover, to collect food & medicines, plus - if the system is flowing ok - all the usual raw materials and components for industry

Of course, that the trade deficit would explode, but the UK could survive for several months like that, until probably the govt gives in and signs up to everything in the WA

lonelyplanetmum · 04/02/2019 20:27

After the Gina Miller case, I had assumed that May requires Parliamentary assent ...

The Miller case related to Article 50 though. I think it depends on the Withdrawal Act and the agreement... Parliament needed for the former, not the latter until the Grieve amendment required a meaningful vote?

mrslaughan · 04/02/2019 20:29

@Destiel - sorry can't work out how to PM/DM - yes she has been in touch with those org's.a they have had there application refused- and are heading to appeAl.
The school listed all the interventions the parents have put in , in their doc . The refusal came with note about how amazing the school had been yada yada yada. The institutional dishonesty in this country is incredible.

Hazardswans · 04/02/2019 20:31

Ta red

And I feel the need to say dyslexics are the BEST people ever... obviously I'm not biased

Rhubarb is nice just don't eat the leaves or stalks that have been damaged by cold.

pointythings · 04/02/2019 20:31

Oh, and I forgot to mention I did my settled status application on Saturday and got confirmation it had been granted today. Just got the DDs to do now.

wherearemychickens · 04/02/2019 20:34

I've seen discussion of the use of the Civil Contingencies Act after a no-deal Brexit; I don't think I've seen it discussed before in the context of forcing through the legislation required for a deal. That surely would be enough to get a lot of people out on the streets protesting?

Destiel · 04/02/2019 20:34

mrsL I dont think anything surprises me anymore! 🤬

My sons school put nothing in place at all and we paid for an ed psych report which made the HT hate me as it showed how bad his dyslexia was! 😀

It's all about funding - and the fact that most teachers and sencos get little training on splds.

Ime unless the child has spld and behavioural problems you get nowhere.

Destiel · 04/02/2019 20:36

I'm not biased either and I agree :)

Destiel · 04/02/2019 20:37

Good news pointy

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 20:39

umpteen Some Brexiters have been saying that ever since the 2016 ref about Cameron expecting not to win the 2015 GE outright and the LDems then refusing to hold a ref

That's part of their feeling of angry victimhood:
that they only were given the ref by accident and that the plan was to cheat them

He also expected after 2015 that the EU would be so horrified at the prospect of losing the UK that they'd give him all he asked - not realising that it would have meant smashing the SM, so they couldn't

Yes, Cameron totally miscalculated at least 3 times on the ref, to bring us to this sorry state

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 20:40

chickens The Civil Contingencies Act also gives great powers to break up and punish those engaged in street protests, or indeed in civil disobedience

Destiel · 04/02/2019 20:40

Cameron or may for worst modern era PM?

PestymcPestFace · 04/02/2019 20:46

Does anyone still have CB radio?

bellinisurge · 04/02/2019 20:47

Actually considered it Grin

Destiel · 04/02/2019 20:50

I've got a wind up radio....

lonelyplanetmum · 04/02/2019 20:55

Destiel and MrsL I have a dyspraxic tendency DD too. Basically they'll be ok in life -it's just getting through the school bit. GCHQ actively recruit people with dyslexic skills as they are streets ahead in espionage strategy. Honestly!

Mine is good at talking- but paperwork not so much. On hearing of BoJo's casual paperwork disposal DH suggested that DD should go into politics...

lonelyplanetmum · 04/02/2019 20:57

Oh and 'congratulations' pointy ...

Hazardswans · 04/02/2019 21:00

I've never been employed for espionage....how disappointing. Perhaps brexit will present an opportunity to give it a go Grin knew I'd find a silver lining to this mess.

I'm another with a wind up radio dest convinced me to get one last year.

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