Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Gets there eventually

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-nissan-letter-no-money-davos-theresa-may-a7538391.html

And then politicians cry about why on earth trust and respect for them is sinking.

www.france24.com/en/20180116-debate-brexit-dismay-no-clear-path-after-divorce-deal-rejection
It's a bit old, as it was broadcast just after the no confidence vote but interesting comments from France.

Good Twitter thread from David Henig re the backstop:

David Henig @DavidHenigUK

I'm going to gamble here and explain why I disagree with @pmdfoster over his interpretation of the Commission's messaging on tech fixes in the past few days. Gamble because he is usually right, but I think there's a missing negotiator's context 1/

Peter Foster @pmdfoster

Lots of fuss about tweets today from @MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva but MUCH more important is tweets from @WeyandSabine killing tech fixes.

David Henig @DavidHenigUK

This is the central argument - that by destroying the backstop now the Commission are removing a ladder the ERG could climb down at the last minute. But I think the Commission think the PM removed this last week and want to make that clear 2/

Peter Foster @pmdfoster

Imagine a world where the choice for the ERG is

- May's deal
- A Deal with labour that includes Permanent CU…
- Revocation of A50
- General Election or People's vote.

Then, at five to midnight, a lot of ERG types could be looking for excuse to back May's deal...

David Henig @DavidHenigUK

The Brexit deal as constructed to the PM's recipe relied on ignoring the fact that there were no technology solutions to the Irish border, pretending that there would be in the future relationship. Kick the can down the road, keep the Conservatives united 3/

Most people think the PM knew she was being disingenuous in claiming her deal would deliver no Irish border and a fully independent trade policy, but there was also the possibility she had come to believe it. One day perhaps, but not for many years... 4/

Then last week the PM denounced her own deal in its most fundamental aspect, the backstop constructed to kick the problem down the road. Implicitly she blamed the EU for the backstop when she should have well known it was designed to avoid an uncomfortable situation 5/

For without the backstop and ambiguous future relationship a choice has to be made between a close economic relationship with the EU, or a border. That is the choice the PM has been delaying, preferably for ever 6/

(Your periodic reminder that the UK Brexit choice is a border, on the island of Ireland, or the Irish Sea, or an exceptionally close relationship with the EU.)

(The UK Government currently rules out all of these options.)

The PM reneged on her negotiations and attempted to put the blame on the EU. This is such appalling negotiating etiquette that the EU had to respond, and be entirely clear there are no technology solutions. That we can't escape the choice 7/

This was already the talk of Brussels last week, that accepting the Brady / Malthouse stuff backed the PM even further into a corner, which they hadn't thought possible. Then once again the UK Government ignored what was being said in Brussels and carried on regardless... 8/

This is Salzburg all over again. The EU can handle the ambiguity of the Withdrawal Agreement, can issue some clarifications, but will not back down on their red line particularly when the UK side has accepted it several times over 9/

Supporting Malthouse / Brady was a disaster for the PM, yet again self-inflicted by wishful thinking that she could keep things united for a little longer. Where she goes to next I have no idea, because ultimately her party is not united and she is in denial 10/ end

So if David Trimble can go to court re GFA, can John Hume (or other respected politician of your choice) also go to court re GFA? So that we can't have hardening of either border? And we can cancel Brexit?

You could not make this up.

@yolofish Welcome, welcome - and cockroach from the other thread on which I lurk but rarely post.

It's all a bit shit isn't it.

bellinisurge has some really useful information on her threads in preppers, if you're interested in a sensible guide to stocking up

I'm already behind with la thread and it's only just started.

I'm not getting the plan for our ports waving EU goods through without checks to avoid huge traffic jams.

I don't really get it- does it mean they will do a windrush approach to anyone looking foreign and just round them up on the streets later on?! So lorries can people smuggle fairly openly for a year unchecked and that's just easier ?

I suppose it's only for up to one year according to the HMRC letter so only a year's worth of people and import duties to chase up?

There are 145,000 businesses chosen that are allowed to make declarations later isn't it? So presumably there'll be loads of new staff needed to collect import duties later?

I'm nervous like when toddlers are left alone and playing quietly in some other room. You know shit's about to go down when it's quiet.

By the way, Red, you done Bjork proud.

Love the way the government can magic up money in case eurotunnel sue them but our schools are severely underfunded.

I was trying to watch the bbc news at 6 and the interviews in Sunderland but the boy kept chattering at me so missed the gems of wisdom. I half heard something about it's because no one wants diesel cards now and nothing to do with brexit and then someone rude saying something about there being other opportunities. Leave voters I'm guessing. Totally missed the third guy due to pre-school chatter.

Apparently TM is going to NI tomorrow. Good luck with that.

Back in December when the vote on the WA agreement was originally meant to take place, there were plans to publish on the same day Brexit guides for householders. Those guides never appeared did they?

I was signed up mother but I was getting 100s and none were relevant to me so I unsubscribed

Late thanks RTB. I live in the North East and just don’t get the people in Sunderland who still want to leave, and hard. There was false advertising, and I can vaguely understand the original vote (what with Nissan being experts). However here we are and lots would still vote leave again. It’s not the government warning or project fear, it’s the biggest employer in the area.

Oooh. Hybrid? I like the sound of that :)

It was the same at Toyota.

Workers were told what leaving the EU would mean.

They still voted leave in droves...

@PerverseConverse - not only eurotunnel ££££ also £80m for Nissan, but apparently if you have a 10year old with severe dyslexia who can't read, your shit out of luck.

{There was false advertising, and I can vaguely understand the original vote (what with Nissan being experts)}
I believe Nissan management gave them all a pep talk before the referendum and said that they ought to vote remain.
Comments by other employers basically saying the same thing, that voting leave would endanger their positions. Obviously red buses are more enticing.

I've signed up to the technical updates too. I'm sure they are just recycling them over and over!

I hear you mrsL!

(If you want then I can recommend some interventions for you. PM me)

Faisal Islam on Twitter today
Government today acknowledged publicly a few weeks before the event what Sky News #brexitforensics revealed 11 months ago, and was the subject of numerous gagging orders on business - that they will not be able to enforce No Deal customs controls on 29.3 because they can’t.

As I read it, the current Tory plan is to say to EU we can't have a border in the Irish Sea and we're not going to put any checks on our border with you.

That forces the EU to do it, unless the UK gets access to the SM through the back door. Regulatory alignment (maybe?) but no EU contributions and no freedom of movement.

Can't see the EU going for it. And while Irish border guards or infrastructure may not come under attack (I'm not sure) lots of people all be very pissed off.

Which leads us back to No Deal and a question mark over trade with other countries. Especially where regulatory alignment comes in.

Fuck the Tories.