Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Thank you Red

The Govts’ preparedness notices can be found here: www.gov.uk/government/brexit

Not much there though - just, “This is how things work now. After 29th March all will change and you will need to do something else. We don’t know what yet though. We’ll keep you posted. Love from your kind and dependable Govt xxx”

Well...itll be the end of them...tarnished silver lining???

A friend who works for Nissan on Tees-side tells me he has been put "on consultation" for redundancy (I think that was the term he used) after 30 years with the company. He and all his family voted Remain because they foresaw the disastrous effects of Brexit. He's a highly skilled engineer, so is confident that he'll find another job, but it doesn't bode well for the long term future of the workforce there.

This is madness. I'm just reading how the European Parliament's Brexit spokesman said of British politics that it is a fight to the death. Never was a truer word spoken. That is where the people who voted leave knowing their employers would close down and the worthless 'honourable' fools in Westminster are taking us. I don't understand.

More from Faisal Islam on no checks in event of No Deal

"Insiders say there aren’t the agents, staff, checking areas to be able to enforce changes at border. Firms will instead have to register for a new system & volunteer info later, but won’t be checked on way in for 12 months. Some doubts that new customs system will be ready too

No Deal notice from today on prioritising flow over revenue...key now is extent reciprocated - ie will EU prioritise fluid flow of trade, or its Single Market/customs union rules to 3rd country. 100 lorry-checking facility being constructed at Coquelles.

Also for the period of this “easement” it fundamentally alters the “they sell more to us/German cars/Prosecco” argument - it is difficult to see how UK would enforce any No Deal tariffs on EU imports. They would be waved through without controls at the border....

And that’s before the WTO rules about whether we would even be allowed to enforce differential tariffs...

Bigger point though. If EU enforced legally applicable No Deal tariffs on UK exports, what would it could UK do with no customs controls at ports"

@Destiel - not my child, a very good family friend who is trying to get a statement(I can never remember the new name for it)
I do however have an interest and am often a sounding board as my son has dyspraxia- and it has really effected his education. We are in the fortunate position that we could afford a lot of interventions for my son ourselves ..... my friends are not in that position 😥

I could see the Customs on the French, Belgian and Dutch sides saying ' sorry, not compliant' and stopping loads going further. It will be blamed on the EU, apart from the 16 million of us who say, no, the blame lies on this side, with initially Cameron and then the ERG who will never ever be satisfied.

thanks as always rtb

Robert Peston
‏Verified account
@Peston
'Official with access to internal figures tells me Labour membership has fallen 150,000, because the peak was 650,000, higher than many thought, and is now circa 500,000. That is steeper drop than widely reported and represents big loss of income. Corbynmania over - in part due to his EU-ambivalence, some of his colleagues say.'

Labour are denying this but not giving any figures themselves.

My eldest is (was?) severely dyslexic and we did lots of interventions.

As you say, you have to have the time and money :(

Its called an ehcp now. Have your family member been in touch with ipsea or dyslexia action?

Thanks, red 💐

Motheroffourdragons I have no idea whether the DH had registered previously, but he’s been there a very long time and they knew he was there to send him the letter!

The 3-month law about driving licenses is from when you arrive, but it’s for tourists/business travellers. If you’re resident in Belgium and still have a UK license, I would suggest applying for a Belgian one instead.

Place cat king with my 'snow cat' from this weekend.

Just catching up on the first episode of 'Inside Europe'.

Signs even then that the ERG and British Govt were complete idiots. Blind siding our European colleagues and blackmailing them into concessions about a Treaty to stabilise the Eurozone when we aren't even in the bloody Eurozone. What dicks we were.

Sorry, others probably know all this already but I've only really been following politics for the past 36 months or so

Arghhh!!!

twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1092507731267911681?s=19

UK PM May Taps Business Leaders To Help Push EU Compromise On Brexit – FT t.co/RUXc5BnPEy

Is May stupid or deluded?!

Is May stupid or deluded?!

Both.

Thanks for the new thread rtb

Place marking

My understanding - from Richard North a while back - is that it doesn't matter if we're not doing checks on imports our side. If the EU are checking their side, you can think of the trade route like a pipe with a bung in one end. Quick enough the other end will be backed up too. The only way of avoiding that would be to send the lorries over empty, so there's nothing to check. You can sort out imports coming in that way, but of course that completely knackers your balance of trade in very short order, and a lot of exporting companies go out of business.

One for the Brexit cupboard maybe?

@red under Emergency Powers invoked by the
Civil Contingencies Act 2004

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/36/contents

it appears that the government can pass or repeal laws without a vote.

If the WA is passed only narrowly
and it is feared the WAIB (Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill) might be seriously delayed / amended even thrown out before Brexit Day,

then imo May could justifiably invoke Emergency powers to pass the WAIB.

Now we get to the really controversial bit < gulp >:

After the Gina Miller case, I had assumed that May requires Parliamentary assent if she wants the WA to become law, because the WA removes a right from British citizens: FOM in the E27

BUT
since the Emergency Powers can be used to override normal parliamentary - and I suspect judicial - processes

I'm wondering if May's plan Z if all else fails
is to declare a national emergency sometime in March

• and the prospect of No Deal is certainly an emergency -

then use Emergency Powers to pass the WA and the WAIB

That would be incredibly autocratic and there would be hell to pay, but May's whole career shows autocracy & using brute force when she has the power to do so

@red What do you think ?

Pmk

Can those more au fait with EU politics pre-Brexit tell me why a lot of British people/MSM dislike Juncker so much?

Is it purely because he's keen on closer union or is there more?