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Brexit

Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/02/2019 15:14

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

OP posts:
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lonelyplanetmum · 04/02/2019 21:05

BCF- I just got what you meant about using Emergency Powers to pass the WA and the WAIB

That's not what they are meant for but May's whole career does show secrecy and autocracy. My theory is her Dad probably had that ( literally) God given air of authority and she has absorbed that into her dna.

She'd have to take legal advice on that though...

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 21:05

Destiel Cameron is a far worse PM than May because although she has handled it badly,
even a brilliantly capable PM would have had a dreadful struggle with the mess he ran away from

Cameron made a whole series of dreadful - arrogant - errors of judgement that led to this:

  • assuming the 2015 GE would result in another Tory-Ldem coalition
    (AND btw assuming that he could get Nick Clegg to do the dirty work of refusing to allow an EU ref)

  • assuming either the EU would be prepared to wreck the SM to give him the cake his rightwing demanded (and are still demanding) or being too ignorant to realise that is what granting his demands would mean

  • assuming Remain would win - not realising that millions of voters would just vote against austerity and his govt

  • refusing to instruct the civil service to prepare for a Leave victory , i.e. to prepare Brexit options, impact statements and contingency plans

  • refusing to require that all 4 UK nations vote Leave before such a massive change

  • accepting such a narrow Leave % victory - in which Scotland and NI voted clearly against - was total victory for leave to do as they wanted
    He should at least have immediately said that it meant the softest of Leave - a special 3rd EEA pillar = staying in the SM+ CU + all agencies+ financial passporting

  • running away like a coward leaving an unknown someone else to clear up the mess.
    We could easily have had Boris or Loathsome as PM - and would have if it had gone to the pargty membership.
    May was an outsider who won only because 3 others crashed out.

As could have been expected from someone becoming PM during a crisis, she made too many mistakes early on - her red lines - from which she could never recover

DGRossetti · 04/02/2019 21:06

I've seen discussion of the use of the Civil Contingencies Act after a no-deal Brexit; I don't think I've seen it discussed before in the context of forcing through the legislation required for a deal. That surely would be enough to get a lot of people out on the streets protesting?

What would you think the first power to be deployed under the CCA would be ?

QueenMabby · 04/02/2019 21:09

PMK for the calm before the (shit)storm...

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 21:10

lonely I'm wondering if she has taken legal advice already - nor from a politician like the Attorney General, who is not a sufficiently reliable or confidential legal source anyway.

Possibly she didn't dare ask anyone, or is totally convinced that she is right

Anyway, it is posible that she plans to this
Even if she isn't sure it'll work, what better options does she have to get her WA through ?

mrslaughan · 04/02/2019 21:15

@lonelyplanetmum - it's taken a long time to realise that he will be fine.....and school is getting easier - but it's been a lot of work. He's finally at a school - that recognises not only his challenges but also his strengths.

I had a big discussion with my husband over the weekend about the effects of brexit on his business - given my son finally being in a school where he is thriving - I was worried his business would move to Europe (we have moved around a lot and that has not been advantageous for the kids). They have already registered their business in Europe- but cheerily said - well none of the key staff will be able to move to work in Europe. Yay for brexit🙄.

The emergency powers thing is scary - and draconian.

mathanxiety · 04/02/2019 21:16

Found you all...

wherearemychickens · 04/02/2019 21:16

Yes, I get that one of the powers it would confer would be to break up protests, I just think that using those powers to ram Brexit through /in advance/ of the actual emergency would be a step too far even for May. Having said that, I thought she would resign after that election result, and she's still bloody here being utterly myopic about the disastrous consequences of her decisions...

I have to admit to having paid no attention at all to the Contingencies Act going through - what safeguards were built in to it being triggered? What are the conditions that need to be met?

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 21:18

The Civil Contingencies Act was intended to deal with emergencies by giving the government power to do almost anything it decides necessary to deal with the emergency

including passing laws without a vote - an incredible power to give the executive

So no point in saying "it was never intended to be used in this way"

We could say that about any power that central or local govt has and abuses
< write your own list of abuses over the decades >

In this case, at least we are facing a genuine emergency more serious than just about anything else in peacetime.

DGRossetti · 04/02/2019 21:19

I just think that using those powers to ram Brexit through /in advance/ of the actual emergency would be a step too far even for May.

I'm sure no one else in history has ever said that about anyone else ....

mrslaughan · 04/02/2019 21:20

@BigChocFrenzy I have been saying to people I think the referendum was a big vote against austerity- but haven't seen much commentary on that.

borntobequiet · 04/02/2019 21:20

Placemarking.
Would people be out on the street protesting if May used the CCA to push through legislation? I don’t know. Many might simply feel relieved it was “all being sorted out” without the inconvenience of food shortages, elections or referendums, and that everything would be back to normal...it would be like a bad dream/Y2K/thinking you’ve got a horrible illness because of Google and the doctor telling you it’s just a head cold.

wherearemychickens · 04/02/2019 21:21

Ah, bugger, have looked it up. No-deal Brexit would /definitely/ meet the definition of an emergency, and "The first condition is that an emergency has occurred, is occuring or is about to occur." Section 21.

So, 'about to occur' and it's good to go.

Shit. Something else to stress about.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2019 21:23

chickens The govt of the day just has to declare an Emergency and invoke the Act

The only safeguard is that it only lasts 30 days and then Parliament has to approve each and any extension

I was horrified in 2004 that it was passed
and I'm astonished that few people know about this Act
That it gives any govt genuinely dictatorial powers to do just about anything except premeditated mass murder

You can read more in the link to it I posted upthread, alog wih the Guardian link discussing the powers.

BjorkShush · 04/02/2019 21:25

A great number of people don't have interest in what is going on and don't understand any of it. I get the impression they switch off when Brexit news come on in the same way I do during the sporting news section.

Maryjoyce · 04/02/2019 21:25

Red I congratulate you on another successful diatribe of rubbish

PestymcPestFace · 04/02/2019 21:25

born curfews will sort out that. Maybe banning awkward opposition groups.

wherearemychickens · 04/02/2019 21:27

And yes, possibly you're right Born - it would probably fit into a lot of people's definition of 'They wouldn't let no-deal happen'. Particularly if the result was it got us into transition, whereby the world doesn't end because we've put everything off for another two years, and all of the valid discussion about the effects of no-deal would be written off as 'project fear mark 2'.

wherearemychickens · 04/02/2019 21:28

Maryjoyce!!! You're back!!! I think you went to bed last night and didn't answer my question so I'll try again - what is it you actually want to see happen, at this point?

wherearemychickens · 04/02/2019 21:28

Genuinely interested.

Hazardswans · 04/02/2019 21:33

chickens she wants no deal because that's what she voted for and she hates strawberries in January.

She may also hate people on medication...

Jason118 · 04/02/2019 21:36

Dabber and card at the ready......

PerverseConverse · 04/02/2019 21:36

She's back!!!! Now the entertainment begins!  We've missed your intellectual, fact-based, well thought out contributions Maryjoyce so are glad you could take time out of your busy schedule to impart your wisdom.

Destiel · 04/02/2019 21:36

bcf I agree but may has been disastrous.

No need to invoke A50 when she did

Nativityriot · 04/02/2019 21:37

Pmk