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Brexit

Honestly - how likely is it now that Brexit will never happen?

345 replies

Crimson72 · 31/01/2019 08:30

There's just 57 days to go until we leave the EU.

Is there still a chance that Brexit will be stopped in some way, politicians will see sense, the whole thing will be called off and we will remain in the EU?

How likely is that to happen?

OP posts:
FriendlyGhost · 01/02/2019 10:06

Bluntness I hope you’re right. After all the government’s warnings about no deal, it would be completely irresponsible of them to allow it. If TM’s deal doesn’t pass then surely it has to be in the best interest of the country to revoke. They’re elected to act in our best interests after all.
Mummmy2017 it’s funny how you avoided my questions Hmm Perhaps because the state of the country is absolutely nothing to do with the EU. If you get your way then you will realise this pretty quickly.

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 10:18

I think it's very very clear the vast majority of MPs don't want no deal. It's the very worst outcome, the only reason the Tories voted down the amendments was because Teresa May whipped them to do so on the promise they would get the opportunity again, and even then, reject no deal was still the amendment that got the majority,

Labour is against it, Tory is against it, the prime minister has said she is against it, it's just a small section of the house who want it, albeit a very vocal section of the house.

She's committed to let them have the vote against it, if she can't get her deal through, and she would not go against that vote, as she also doesn't want it, so if the house told her to revoke she would. And the house have been very clear they will tell her if she can't get her deal through.

SillySallySingsSongs · 01/02/2019 10:37

It won't be revoked because again, there isn't a parliamentary majority to do so. Just like with the Peoples Vote. Nor is it what the Labout Front bench want.

I think many forget that if they weren't on the Labour front brench there are a fair few that would have been leavers.

In reality I do believe there will be an extention but for maximum 3 months and it will be passed as a time limit. It won't be much longer than that as it causes volcanic issues for the EU with budgets and upcoming Euro elections.

Ultimately there will be a deal. There are a fair few MPs that up until a few weeks ago were 'sworn enemies' that are now seriously talking to each other to get it through.

mummmy2017 · 01/02/2019 10:39

I don't hate the EU
I just choose to vote to leave because I could.
Sorry your not seeing it as it is.
Labour won't vote to support May.
They know if it is no deal, they stand a chance to get in, and no deal let's JC do pretty much what he wants and blame TM.
I think your placing your hopes on what you would want to happen, not what will be.

SillySallySingsSongs · 01/02/2019 10:43

I think your placing your hopes on what you would want to happen, not what will be.

Nope. There are enough sensible Labour MPs that would get it through. If he whips they wil ignore. Not like he can complain after his past.

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 10:46

Mummy, Jeremy Corbyn is the one shouting loudest against no deal.

And what do you mean you voted leave just because you could?

jasjas1973 · 01/02/2019 10:47

Whatever is agreed in HoC has to be acceptable to the EU.

IF EU stick to the current backstop, then Mays deal might not get voted through, in which case a no-deal could happen.

I don't really get why so many leavers want a deal with such a disliked organisation which is apparently going to implode, esp as said deal will mean we will be a rule taker, paying IN and zero say......

Random18 · 01/02/2019 10:47

@mummy I think you are overestimating the power of JC.

He may say his MPs should vote against no deal.
But they are not stupid. Many are MPs for constituencies that will be most affected.
They will rebel and dam the consequences.

I actually don’t think it will come to that as I think even JC won’t want that.

MonkeysMummy17 · 01/02/2019 10:47

Mummmy2017 I'm curious, you say everything you have comes in and goes out, nothing left each month?

So what happens if say electricity bills go up by £5 a month, and then gas goes up the same, and then food goes up £10 a month, and then council tax £5 a month, then rent goes up £10? And at the same time, if the minimum wage (part of the workers rights protections that the tories would very much like to say goodbye to) is scrapped and your £7.83 an hour job becomes a £4 an hour job - take it or leave it because Joe down the road used to work at the car manufacturer and has been out of work for months, and the government no longer has the money for a welfare system because the tax revenue they used to receive has dropped dramatically?

Even if your wages stay the same, but a few bills go up, what happens then? If you have nothing left now, what will you do when you have nothing left and bills still to pay?

These are problems that the likes of Rees-mogg and Johnson have never had to consider and believe its because people haven't made enough effort to earn more. They seek to multiply what they already have, are they going to share that wealth?

They say that this is what the country voted for, we need to get behind it and get on with it, these men don't even run their own homes but they claim that they are on your side - when have they ever given you an indication that they would make your life better?

They claim that the money we send to the EU will be spent on the NHS, whilst knowing full well that whatever we send to the EU is on the back of the state of the economy - businesses generate profits and pay tax, that tax is then used by government to pay for things. If those businesses like Barclays shifting their £190billion to Ireland keep going, jobs here disappear, businesses go elsewhere and the tax revenue drops where does the government get that money from?

It's despicable that the tories have done this to this country, the referendum was a tool for Cameron to appease his party and the whole thing was a war. Where is Cameron now? He promised to stay and be PM regardless of the outcome and yet the next day he was gone. Why do you believe that the politicians that have lied to us for years are suddenly trustworthy enough to bet everything you have on them?

You think you have nothing now, but you can pay your bills, what will you do if your current nothing is upgraded to actually nothing and you can't afford your bills, rent, food?

Yes, this might not happen, all of the expert opinions could be wrong, everything might be plain sailing, but if it isn't what happens then?

Random18 · 01/02/2019 10:47

*vote
For No deal I mean

bellinisurge · 01/02/2019 10:48

Labour MPs have no loyalty to that twat who rebelled against the leadership all his political life as a back bench poseur.
I am convinced after the success of the Non-Binding Spelman Amendment that there are enough grown ups in Parliament to stop No Deal when it gets down to the wire.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

millyonth · 01/02/2019 10:57

I don't really get why so many leavers want a deal with such a disliked organisation which is apparently going to implode, esp as said deal will mean we will be a rule taker, paying IN and zero say......
We don't particularly want such a deal, but it's a way to edge out gradually at least. Better than locking ourselves in to a stagnating wrongheaded organisation forever.

mummmy2017 · 01/02/2019 10:58

I have to budget each month.
Food is always the one thing that has too give if another bill needs paying.
Clothing I buy cheap good quality and have too wear till it falls apart.
I am not too proud to accept hand me downs.
My children are both older, but understand. Have just got an evening job, that helps a lot as socializing and getting paid for it.
Life is just very tight, but I still voted to go, would now as well.

I want everything shook up, not what you want too hear, but for so many years it has been a case of watching everything go down hill, shops closing, the internet changing how we all live.
Brexit means the government will have to do things , no more hiding and pretending...
Sorry but we need a massive change in the UK. If this is a kind consideration in the Teeth to me first generation fine..

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 01/02/2019 11:00

Be careful what you wish for.

FriendlyGhost · 01/02/2019 11:00

Mummmy you voted leave because you could? It’s not a joke you know. This will affect people for generations. I ‘could’ choose to jump out of the window. I won’t because all the experts and common sense would tell me it’s a fucking stupid idea.
Independent and government analysis have predicted price rises of at least between 5-10% in every scenario. How, if you have nothing, do you propose to afford this? I assume because of your user name that you have DC. Will you be able to feed them with the anticipated price rises? It is highly irresponsible to ignore expert analysis and vote for something just because you can.

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 01/02/2019 11:01

the internet changing how we all live.

What’s that to do with Brexit?

millyonth · 01/02/2019 11:02

Independent and government analysis have predicted price rises of at least between 5-10% in every scenario.

In every scenario? Utter nonsense.

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 11:04

But mummy, What is it exactly you think will happen in this shake up?

cloudtree · 01/02/2019 11:05

Mummy2017 how will you cope if food is 20% more. Some food items like cheese expected to be up to 38% more? Genuine question.

mummmy2017 · 01/02/2019 11:11

I am over weight , not loads but if cutting back means I eat less I think like many others I will be going on a Brexit diet
More training for jobs for our children, as there will be gaps in market.
More houses built .
House prices will drop as landlords will off load houses as they can't get rents, schemes to help people buy.
Yes we could have done this in the EU. But it was so easy for each government not too... Now they will have too

MonkeysMummy17 · 01/02/2019 11:13

I don't understand how leaving the EU changes any of those things though.

Yes, the Internet has changed lives online retailing is much higher and shops have closed. How will that change once we leave? We have no trade deals whatsoever, anything we trade in will be either higher tariffs so higher price for the end consumer, or no tariffs which means we have absolutely no control of what comes into the country (lead in the toys for kids?)

I understand that the places that largely voted leave are the places politicians have largely ignored for decades. How will that change after brexit? They will say this is what you voted for, you need to accept the consequences. Will they care that you are working 2 jobs just to have a bit of cash left to do something nice for yourself? They certainly don't care now so I don't see why that would change when they're only doing what you told them to..

These people have never had to budget in their lives, poverty for them is a 4 restaurant instead of 5 - did you hold a champagne reception as Rees-mogg did when the withdrawal agreement was voted down? These people are in it to make money, once they've made it they will tuck it away in whatever safe Haven they can and carry on their merry way. If prices go up, they can afford it without blinking.

Meanwhile, if you have to get a third job to keep ends meeting who is going to help?

Are the people who currently donating to good banks going to do so as much? If they can only just afford things they used to be able to easily afford, that extra is not going to go to other people. Will the government step in then? They haven't done so far, in fact they support and praise the use of food banks as ingenious thinking because it saves them money.

Meanwhile the nurses and doctors that used to come here from the EU will go where they feel more welcome and secure, and in their place we will have hordes of immigration from countries we can scrape trade deals from by promising visas for all.

Is this something that will be fixed for your kids? Or are they also going to grow up barely surviving and waiting for politicians to take notice?

GoFiguire · 01/02/2019 11:15

So there will be mass unemployment, home repossessions, galloping inflation - but that’s OK because mummy is finally going to lose some weight?

God give me patience. Hmm

millyonth · 01/02/2019 11:19

Mummmy I admire your patience and good humour in standing your ground here. Can't believe how rude and personal some of the questions being fired at you are. I share your optimism . I think wages will rise and rents will fall and there will be more investment in the regions IF Brexit happens. You can't convert them here though. They won't even admit there is anything wrong in Greece or Italy. It's a remain echo-chamber here and that's the way they like it.

Lottapianos · 01/02/2019 11:22

'So there will be mass unemployment, home repossessions, galloping inflation - but that’s OK because mummy is finally going to lose some weight?

God give me patience'

Just when you think you've heard it all..... The stupid, it burns.........

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 01/02/2019 11:23

More houses built

How is Britain being in the EU stopping houses being built?