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Brexit
Original poster

Honestly - how likely is it now that Brexit will never happen?

345 replies

Crimson72 · 31/01/2019 08:30

There's just 57 days to go until we leave the EU.

Is there still a chance that Brexit will be stopped in some way, politicians will see sense, the whole thing will be called off and we will remain in the EU?

How likely is that to happen?

OP posts:
mummmy2017 · 01/02/2019 08:37

Strange as my views of that time are many many people like my parents bought a house cheap, have lived rent free for decades and are having a great retirement in a nice house they own and lots of my friends are now recieving large inheritances .

Kazzyhoward · 01/02/2019 08:39

Well, if the EU had remained as a primarily economic project then we wouldn’t be in the mess that we’re in now.

Exactly. People weren't given a choice as to whether they wanted the political project and that's why we're in this mess right now. When we first joined the EEC it was all about economic, that's what we voted for. We've NEVER been given any vote about the political side of things.

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 08:42

Can the MPs stop it?

Not the MPs technically, what has happened is Teresa May whipped hers to vote against the proposed amendments on tues, to give her time to negotiate, but she promised the house they would get to vote on no deal again. So yes, effectively they can stop it.

On the 14th, if her deal is not voted through, then they do Tuesday all over again, and they vote on all the proposals, at this stage, then she would either move to delay or revoke. Her deal gets the meaningful vote first, if they agree it, then that's it. Job done.

If she does. Not get a majority we then seen the whole thing replayed and she has stated she won't whip, and that she personally does not wish no deal either,

So it's a foregone conculusion on no deal not being an option.

mummmy2017 · 01/02/2019 08:48

The EU. Have you heard of them?

They said the WA is the only deal, we will not offer anything else........

So. We voted no to that....

Therefore there is not a deal agreed on by the MPs....

Yeh so just what do you think is going to happen ... No deal.....

Not hard to understand is it if you use common sense....

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 01/02/2019 08:52

Yes, I have noticed that some people don't really use their common sense.

Hmm
Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 08:55

I think you're confused mummy,

Legally we can revoke article fifty any time up until the last minute. We do not need the eus permission to do so. And they would love us to revoke it.

The agreement doesn't need to be reopened, they can do a joint instruction, to amend it, and they are in talks now, but even if they don't amend, the question is when it comes to it, will our parliament vote for it on the 14th, which I suspect they will do.

If they do not, then she has committed to run the votes again, and ask the house what it wishes to do. The overwhelming marjoity of MPs have stated they will not permit no deal. Even Boris Johnson is now saying it, it's really just Rees Mogg and his erg group, but he can't whip them, so who knows how they will vote at the crunch. But even if all forty odd members voted for no deal, which is highly unlikely. The vote against no deal would still pass. There is no doubt or question abo

As such, its Either her deal, or revoke/delay.

jasjas1973 · 01/02/2019 08:59

The EU. Have you heard of them?
They said the WA is the only deal, we will not offer anything else........

More leaver lies....May negotiated the WA and it was she who said there is no other deal, this is the only deal.
The EU on the other hand have said all along if UK drops its red lines, then there can be another deal!

Looks like May will change her negotiating stance, there will be an extension and possibly another deal, based on Labours fragmented EU policy.

A no-deal will see an economic depression, the likes of which the UK hasn't experienced since the 1930s and would destroy the Tory party, so is highly unlikely to happen.

Abra1de · 01/02/2019 09:03

English people are shrugging and looking the other way, or having a bit of 'racist fun'.

I’m not. Nor are my family or friends.

FriendlyGhost · 01/02/2019 09:08

Mummmy2017 i’m genuinely interested. Why do you hate the EU so much? What specifically have they done to negatively impact you and your family?
What would you do about the Irish border? Would you keep us in the customs union?

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 09:09

The Eu are basically trying to force us to do this deal or ideally stay in.

They can refuse us a delay, as that does need to be agreed by them, and they know full well we won't allow no deal. So if her deal does not get agreed on the 14th and they reject a delay, Teresa May will have no option but to revoke article fifty,

However our MPs, are not complete idiots and are aware of this, and many of the would prefer her deal to staying in. As such, because the 14 th we will be down to the wire, many of them may vote for it, irrelevant of any amendments made or not, so there is a high chance she will get it through because quite frankly much of the house will prefer that to staying in.

millyonth · 01/02/2019 09:20

Bluntness I agree. I'm now beginning to think that an amended WA could be passed. May might be able to persuade more Labour rebels to join John Mann in trading investment in Leave areas for votes for her WA. We shall see.

What I don't understand about May is why she doesn't try to sell her WA to the general public - Trump style - through tweets. After all the WA is basically staying in the EU - without freedom of movement - which presumably is quite attractive to a lot of people.

mummmy2017 · 01/02/2019 09:21

How many times do you have to knock your head against a wall to know it hurts.

Nothing has changed in the WA , Labour won't vote for it. Loads of Tory's won't vote for it. The EU refuse to remove the backstop. We are not going to say sod this lets not leave.....
The EU said no point in extension as what has changed .. nothing...
For two years on here I have been vilified for saying this will happen, yet look where we are now.

Peregrina · 01/02/2019 09:22

We've NEVER been given any vote about the political side of things.

How strange. I have voted in 13 General Elections since I came of voting age and each time I recall the parties producing manifestos about what they supported. Admittedly Tory voters who want to Remain will have been disappointed to say the least to see the commitment to the Single Market n the 2015 manifesto not being honoured, but being trumped by the result of an advisory referendum.

Dongdingdong · 01/02/2019 09:23

I wish I shared your optimism Bluntness, but I can’t see TM ever revoking A50 - or getting enough MPs to agree to put aside their differences and back WA. Which only leaves...

jasjas1973 · 01/02/2019 09:29

When we first joined the EEC it was all about economic, that's what we voted for. We've NEVER been given any vote about the political side of things

Umpteen GEs since the 70s, we 've always voted in pro European parties, M.Thatcher, one of the UK most loved politicians, was very pro EU and a huge advocate of the SM.

UKIP have never had a directly elected MP and even Farge lost 7 times, which just goes to show that the UK isn't really as eurosceptic as the 2016 result suggests.

Proven by the numbers of pro eu MPs we the electorate have voted in.

Random18 · 01/02/2019 09:32

I agree with @Bluntness. May is stubborn and difficult but she is not really that stupid. She does not expect anything else from Brussels. She is just winding down the clock.

If she can’t get her deal then it’s No brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn knows this. Which is why his tone is softening.

I really ho

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 09:34

I wish I shared your optimism Bluntness, but I can’t see TM ever revoking A50 - or getting enough MPs to agree to put aside their differences and back WA

If parliament votes against it, then she will. But if she can get enough behind her to agree the deal it will never get to that stage,

I watched her in the house, she specifically stated to the house, whilst standing at the dispatch box that she did not want no deal.

What she wants is her deal to be agreed and we leave. However if it's no deal or stay, then no deal it will be. There is not one shadow of a doubt on that. However as said, it may be moot, because it may never get to that. It really depends on if her deal gets through or not.

And the general feeling is enough MPs might get behind it to prevent staying.

millyonth · 01/02/2019 09:35

Thatcher was pro free trade so she was one of the chief architects of the single market - but she vehemently opposed the signing of the Maastricht treaty in 1992 by John Major.

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 09:35

Sorry, no deal or stay, then it be stay,

hinely · 01/02/2019 09:38

The financial markets have the probability of no deal at 20% at the moment so most are not switching business to their EU offices just yet.

Still plenty of time - the politicians will delay the decision to the last moment in order to play their point scoring games.

TabbyCat44 · 01/02/2019 09:41

I'm pinning my hopes on Bluntness being correct.

beachysandy81 · 01/02/2019 09:46

Who knows what is going on behind the scenes. I would like to think the politicians wouldn't let it get to no deal but I don't have a huge amount of faith in any of them at the moment!

Bluntness100 · 01/02/2019 09:47

Still plenty of time - the politicians will delay the decision to the last moment in order to play their point scoring games

Yup, a lot of what we hear now is all part of the negotiation process.

U,tinately we only know several facts.

The overwhelming majority of the house will move to prevent no deal if it seems likely and they are allowed to.
Teresa May has said she will allow it on the 14th if her deal does not get through,
More MPs are against no deal than there are against staying in.

And that this shit will continue for the next two weeks as each side negotiate.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 01/02/2019 09:54

Ah, the 1980s 15% interest rates, The council house sell off that has led to today’s housing crisis, poll tax, 3.5 million on the dole, privatisation. What a glorious time. Half the things now blamed on the EU

jasjas1973 · 01/02/2019 09:57

Thatcher was pro free trade so she was one of the chief architects of the single market - but she vehemently opposed the signing of the Maastricht treaty in 1992 by John Major

We secured an opt out from Monetary & Economic Union - We are now (potentially) giving up all free trade by going to WTO and giving up the SM and the 70 FTA's inc the latest with Japan, we have with the EU.

Just how long will it take to get those back again? and on what terms?