Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Just saw that Junker is due to address the EU parliament this afternoon at 2:30 so that should be interesting. I expect a strong reiteration that there will be no changes to the backstop.

Pamphlet stain

PMK

.

Thank you for this thread

“Just saw that Junker is due to address the EU parliament this afternoon at 2:30 so that should be interesting. I expect a strong reiteration that there will be no changes to the backstop.”

Maybe the EU should write it on a bus.

Overall though, the position hasn't changed as such. Before the vote we already knew the Brady unicorn was going through, and the Cooper amendment almost certainly wasn't. And none of these amendments had any effect on reality, regardless. It was like voting for a perpetual motion transport machine, without reference to the laws of physics, and in fact without a blueprint for even a roller-skate.

For me, I do feel a deep sense of disappointment, but it's not because there's been any material change in reality. It's because yesterday's vote laid bare (again!) the gaping void in ability, knowledge, skill, courage, integrity and sense of duty, that should be the central role of Parliament and the Government.

Importantly, it's this very void that means Brexit cannot succeed, however much cheering and sloganeering people do. The very systems that would be needed to steer the country through turbulent waters are fundamentally flawed.

In terms of WA versus No Deal, I don't necessarily think No Deal has become more likely. Theresa May has been holding a gun to the nation's head, saying WA or No Deal, since before Christmas. There is still no majority for No Deal, and as the day gets closer I think Parliament will crumble and pass the WA.

(BTW I don't support the WA. But it's like being asked whether I want my toes amputated, or my entire leg. I don't want either but if those are the only two options, clearly I'd consider losing some toes somewhat less bad.)

I missed a whole thread yesterday!
How did that happen?

{I missed a whole thread yesterday!
How did that happen?}
Easily done and the good/bad thing is that apart from some gossip, nothing really happened, the UK is still nowhere near deciding what it wants.

Bad analogy Elements , toes are needed for balance when walking. Without them all you would flounder . Hang on.... maybe it’s a good analogy after all.

So pissed off this am. I sadly think it’s No deal or no Revoke. Despite the Labour leave fraction I don’t think the maths will ever work for WA.

The no deal “win“ last night bothered me most , at such a slim majority it doesn’t give a resounding no in my opinion.

However , it may be enough for TM to Revoke on 28th to avoid a no deal whilst still saving face. That is my little unicorn.

But preparing for an accidental no deal as most likely.

Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov

Last night showed three things

1. MPs really don't want no-deal
2. But they also really don't want to do anything that might stop, or delay Brexit, in order to avoid it.
3. That means May's deal could still pass.

www.businessinsider.com/here-is-how-theresa-may-wins-a-majority-for-her-brexit-deal-2019-1?r=US&IR=T
Here is how Theresa May wins a majority for her Brexit deal

THIS

There is still no majority for No Deal, and as the day gets closer I think Parliament will crumble and pass the WA.

I agree with this.

So, while it doesn't mean immediate catastrophe, it does mean 21 more months of uncertainty.

Did they vote for the Brady amendment thinking it had any chance of changing the backstop? Or did they vote for it knowing (because the EU already said) that it wouldn’t?

Cooper would probably have passed had TM not said parliament would get another chance at ruling out no deal on 13th.

So given that nothing will change in the next two weeks, can we expect something Cooper-like on 13th to go through?

PMK, can't keep up!

In terms of WA versus No Deal, I don't necessarily think No Deal has become more likely.

I'd have said No Deal more likely IF so many Labour MPs hadn't cracked last night.

More will follow. As Adam Bienkov highlighted Lisa Nandy is particularly on the edge. Her constitutency is one of the most pro leave in the country. She was the one yesterday who stuck in my mind and he's also come up with her name. This is what she said in the debate:

It was embarrassing to be part of the pantomime that started this debate earlier and that could not contrast more with the levels of anxiety that I hear out there in the country whenever I am allowed to go home. These debates have largely generated far more heat than light, and I have been glad to hear many Members, in the debate that has ensued, recognise that we are breaking our democracy. We urgently have to build common ground. That is why amendment (f) in the name of my right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds Central (Hilary Benn), which seeks to narrow down the options with a series of indicative votes, is an incredibly helpful suggestion. So too is amendment (h) in the name of my hon. Friend the Member for Walthamstow (Stella Creasy), along with myself and many others, proposing a citizens’ assembly. This has been used as a mechanism in many other countries, including Ireland, to break similarly controversial deadlocks.

The importance of amendment (h) is that the 46 MPs who are signatory to it come from all different Brexit positions and none. That proves that there are a number of us in this House who are willing to step out of the trenches and start to compromise. This matters because HOPE not hate produced a report today that clearly shows that attitudes around the country are hardening and people’s willingness to compromise is being reduced. We are seeing fear, anger and a rise in activity from the far right in that fertile ground in a way that I have not seen since I was growing up as a child in the 1980s.

It is astonishing that the Prime Minister came here today still talking to the House as if she can have it both ways. She told my hon. Friend the Member for Great Grimsby (Melanie Onn) that she is seeking to strengthen workers’ rights, but then she told this House that she is backing the Baker plan, which on page 31 junks the non-regression clause and seeks to dilute existing employment rights protections. The Prime Minister seems determined to tilt right and try to get this through with a small group of hard Brexiteers in her own party, but how does she honestly think that she is going to maintain that fragile coalition all the way through the legislation that will be required to pass this?

That is why, reluctantly, I have come to the conclusion that today I will support amendment (b) in the name of my right hon. Friend the Member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper). That is not because I think that extending article 50 to the end of the year is by any means sustainable; it is not and the public will not accept it. They will not forgive us if we go over the summer and try to re-elect MEPs to a Parliament that we were supposed to have left three months before.

There is not enough understanding in this House of how little trust there is that we mean what we say when we say we respect the result of the referendum, and we cannot afford to kick the can down the road any longer. But this amendment is now the only mechanism that this House has to try to avoid a no-deal scenario, and to start making real decisions about how we are going to respect the result of the referendum, protect jobs and heal this divided country.

Lisa Nandy, I'd argue is fairly influential in certain quarters of the Labour Party, and I daresay many will share her view on this.

Did they vote for the Brady amendment thinking it had any chance of changing the backstop? Or did they vote for it knowing (because the EU already said) that it wouldn’t?

Yes!

I mean there are some MPs for both reasons.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: May’s capitulation to hardline Brexiteer demands was total - including a shake up of her negotiating team. Gavin Barwell promised it will now include UK’s rep to WTO Julian Braithwaite and DIT’s chief negotiator Crawford Falconer;

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8310212/brexit-vote-theresa-may-success-irish-border/

Oh good. Now they too can get the message first hand.

I've bobbed on to see if I can make head or tail of what's going on. I don't have a clue.

All I've seen so far on TV is Leavers getting noisy about the EU being difficult. And farmers getting anxious. And a few sparse Remainers saying basically what is said on here but getting shouted down as if they are in cloud cuckoo land.

From a very non-expert position it feelz to me like No Deal is slipping and a desperate WA will be agreed at the last minute.

So we will Leave, on crappy terms, in a mess, kicking a few cans down the road fur another year or so. With the economy tanking and more uncertainty. And more anxiety for farmers, no doubt.

If we really had to leave - really, really had to - we should have had 10 years to plan it. Agriculture, finances, import, export, business, the lot.

I'm hoping they want to go through the motions of being hardcore but will cave and accept WA in February.
I don't give a shit about the DUP. Hope they flush themselves into oblivion. With any luck their stupidity will reset politics for the better in NI. Ok that's a bit of a naive hope.

How can the WA go through when it was so humiliatingly defeated previously? They can’t make any real changes because negotiations have closed, so it would basically be saying ‘yep, this pile of shit that we all laughed at in January, that’s what we’re going for’.

And if we eventually capitulate and accept a steaming pile of shit, then how exactly will that make us look on the world stage going into negotiating all these exciting new trade deals?

Pootles, FWIW I think once out the consensus for a soft relationship with the EU is there.

Right now they are all desparate to show they support Brexit. Once out a lot of the pressure will go, simply cos so many people will not understand anything more than 'we got Brexit'. For MPs they can legitimately claim they have delivered Brexit.

There will be Kipper Voices but I think they will loose some of their effectiveness. MPs won't have their hands tied in quite the same way. The mandate of the referendum will be spent.

Having said all this I think a lot of what happens next depends on when May goes and who takes over from her though.

How can the WA go through when it was so humiliatingly defeated previously?

Because the reason it was defeated was because people still thought there were other options available, but since they never managed to gather enough support for what they want with the deadline looming they have to pick the least worst option.

When there has been polling for outcomes based on AV voting, the Withdrawal Agreement DOES come top. It is the compromise option.

It stinks, but its viewed as not as bad as the alternative and thats the bottom line.

With the WA though, what changes can she make? ERG won't budge on anything else. EU are holding strong, thankfully. I think at this point EU would rather us crash out by our own incompetence than bend on something as vital as the GFA. I can't see anything really worth debating after she comes back with her "non" from EU. It's past negotiations stage and we've got mere weeks to focus on what situation we are in beforehand and actually prepare for it (Hammond i'm looking at you increasing the budget on that!). Parliament IMO would be better of focusing on the aftermath and planning than chasing their tails any more.

toes are needed for balance when walking. Without them all you would flounder . Hang on.... maybe it’s a good analogy after all.

Exactly 2bees I see WA vs No Deal as "would you rather be maimed less or more?"

And if we eventually capitulate and accept a steaming pile of shit, then how exactly will that make us look on the world stage going into negotiating all these exciting new trade deals?

Bit late for that giraffe - on the world stage, we are the steaming pile of shit, except we're the steaming pile of shit bellowing "We are fragrant as roses! Worship us!"