Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

I'm trying very hard not to go full distopian with worry about my family left in the uk. Revoke is my unicorn but it's already looking quite badly decomposed seriously unwel.

I'm pretty sure we are heading for no deal making leaving with WA on the 29th my reluctant new unicorn.

I've an idea how bad things will be on 30th march with no deal but what's likely with supply chains if we do get the WA? Still fucked right?

PMK with a big old sigh. Le sigh.

Am I right in thinking May can't just put her deal back on the table, or could that be a further humiliation for HoC after having shot it down in flames, having to revive it from the ashes?

Mrs lettuce If we take the WA I think the EU would give us a short extension to get all the legal business in place to avoid too much disruption. Of course that's assuming we are capable of organising anything. Right now I'm assuming half of the government only turn up with their shirts on the right way around because nanny held them dress.

Erm, is this real? Surely they can't just give "rights" as a single country? Portugal

Fear and distress in the farming community. Inc in NI.
Farming Today:
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00027pf

Just seen, it's only up to 90 days (Portugal).

Only half listening to Raab on BBC Breakfast because he's talking rubbish but I think I just heard him say that it is the EU being wilfully difficult refusing to consider adding in a time limited backstop because "they'll have two years to come up with something during the transition period"

So it is still old mantra the EU's fault that the technology to avoid a hard Brexit does not exist and is not expected to be invented in the next 2 years

Fish feline royalty.

PMK

Thanks Red

politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/29/amendment-apocalypse-spineless-mps-just-voted-against-realit

Another article from Ian Dunt
The one and only glimmer of hope was an amendment from Caroline Spelman which said MPs rejected leaving the EU without a deal, but contained no actual mechanisms to enforce it. This MPs accepted by 318 to 310. So they were insisting that no-deal should be ruled out but refusing to take any role whatsoever in preventing it themselves. They were like babies in suits.

It was as pitiful an exhibition as we've ever seen from them: a masterclass in cowardice. Even now, years after the result, they are petrified of being seen to somehow undermine Brexit. Their mania is so severe that they are prepared to sabotage the mechanisms which would achieve what they themselves say should take place.
That was how they rejected reality. Then they threw their lot in with the fairy tales.

THAT I think is the critical part. Not enough MPs are happy to put their heads over the parapet and take responsibility.
They dint want No Deal but they also don’t want the responsibility to make a deal. And they don’t want to look like they are ‘going against the will of the people’ in any shape or form.
So they are giving away their power and their responsibility to the government instead.

This is going to end in No Deal. Because we have a Parliament so used to be the puppet of the government and to just follow whatever the PM is saying that they have no idea how to actually govern and play their role on the Parliamentarian Democracy that the U.K. is.
The failure there is as much the one of the government, the one of the Opposition as much as it is the failure of the Parliament.

Shame on them all.

Do they seriously expect the E.U. to cave and sell out Ireland? The duplicitous shit show of recent weeks shows exactly why the UK has to be locked into a time UNlimited backstop.
Anyway, it'll incentivise the feckers to come up with a technological solution- the one they claim is easily found - to avoid the backstop altogether.

"I've an idea how bad things will be on 30th march with no deal but what's likely with supply chains if we do get the WA? Still fucked right?"

No - if the WA is passed then we have a transition period of 21 months during which all sides keep to EU rules as previously. So it will be fine (though we will need a short extension to get the relevant legislation updated, as mentioned above).

Lonely i thought a bill can only be re-voted on if it is substantively different from the one the HoC had previously rejected.

So to me, it looks very much like Lab and Con will go for no-deal rather than risk their respective parties splitting (assuming EU stick to their red line)
I don't understand the Brady amendment, surely May could have gone back to the EU and asked for a renegotiation of the WA/Backstop at anytime?

.

How does the UK think it can negotiate and sign a deal on how to make a deal with compromises on both sides and then come back with a suicide vest on threatening to blow themselves up but cause lots of collateral damage to everyone else if they don’t get all the bits they have changed their mind on thrown out.

The EU must know if it appeases the UK now they will keep threatening to detonate their suicide vest throughout the actual trade agreement deal negotiations as well every time an agreed compromise causes problems for the story party.

Better to let the UL decide now if it wants s negotiation or an explosion and just do the best they can to limit the collateral damage.

Sorry UK not UL

@jasjas1973 , the Brady amendment is another magic trick to make tbe party think they are doing something. I think she can bring back WA as many times as she likes. If she games these numpties enough it will be the only Leave option available.
Shit or get off the pot as an old boss of mine used to say.

I thought yesterday's vote was voting on May's Withdrawal Agreement #2. Did they vote on it? Was it that the WA + Brady Amendment passed, but the WA without the Brady Amendment wasn't voted on?

I'm now fully expecting no deal. As much as I'd like to believe parliament might have a sudden attack of sense, last night has convinced me it is little more than a beautiful dream. I'm going to go get a few more bits for the prepping box today.

Last night I went and saw a film about the last days of the Soviet empire, crumbling under the weight of plots, counter plots, backstabbing and ego. By the end I just wanted to cry because I don't want to be living through a moment of history like that, but here we are.

The piece posted by Rosa is an excellent and clear summary. I couldn't help but notice that the relationship is supposed to be dynamic - as indeed is or was our relationship with the rest of the EU.

I suspect the United Kingdom is going to bite the dust anyway; I hope we get the bonus of virtually all the political parties imploding and a complete realignment.

Out until late this afternoon - will we be on a new thread then??

@HopelesslydevotedtoGu

Only amendments, Brady was the one that got approved, her bill remains defeated.

.

Bigly & Irene thanks. I'd be amazed if the WA gets through and everything is properly organised for an orderly exit but I shall try to muster some hope.

UK residents here got a letter a couple of weeks ago letting us know we're ok to stay in a no deal situation. Obviously that's great news but it has made it very, very hard for me to foresee anything but no deal happening

PMK.